Last week the International Energy Agency in Paris released its annual World Energy Outlook, which projects energy trends out to 2035. As it did last year, the 2013 WEO had plenty of good news for Americans: “The net North American requirement for crude imports all but disappears by 2035 and the region becomes a larger exporter of oil products.” Before we celebrate the end of the Middle East’s dominant role in global energy, however, a quick review of the IEA’s track record on its projections might be in order. Further, an analysis of a few key global oil production factors exposes the unstable foundation upon which hopes for North American oil independence are built. Following the two global oil crises of the 1970s, the IEA was upbeat about oil supply looking out a quarter century into the future. […]