Category:

Australia at risk of severe consequences of climate change

Australia is at risk of severe consequences as a result of climate change, a new book warns. “Four Degrees of Global Warming: Australia in a Hot World,” by a group of scientists and economists, looks at the economic implications of global warming of 4 degrees Celsius – or 7.2 degrees Fahrenheit — by or before 2100. The book’s editor, Peter Christoff, associate professor of environmental policy at the University of Melbourne, says that even if the world’s major economies were to enact current carbon emissions reduction pledges aimed at limiting warming to below 2C, the world is still on track to experience 4C of warming by 2100, The Guardian reports. “Australia is exceptionally vulnerable ecologically to climate change,” Christoff told the newspaper. Four degrees of warming, he said, would mean “a comprehensive transformation for life in Australia, from its wealth to its access to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Drilling California: A Reality Check

Written by PCI Fellow J. David Hughes and published in partnership by Post Carbon Institute and Physicians, Scientists & Engineers for Healthy Energy , this report provides the first publicly available empirical analysis of actual oil production data from the Monterey Formation, including from wells that have undergone hydraulic fracturing and acidization. It lays out some of the play’s fundamental characteristics compared to other tight oil plays, including geological properties, current production, production potential, and associated environmental issues. Unlike previous studies looking at potential production and economic impacts, this report is based on analysis of real production data (compiled in the most comprehensive oil and gas production database publicly available) and should therefore help ensure that public policy decisions on the development of the Monterey are grounded in data, not assumptions. Be sure to visit montereyoil.org for more resources. A print version of the report can be purchased here […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

How Green Interests Swayed Virginia Vote

The energy industry is worried what Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s successful Virginia gubernatorial bid means for Old Dominion—and for other energy-producing states as the midterm elections approach. Almost a third of the $34 million poured into Mr. McAuliffe’s campaign came from environmental groups that claim the governor-elect as an ally. And Mr. McAuliffe staked out an unusually strong green stance during the campaign in a state that historically has been friendly to energy interests and a leader on pushback against environmental regulatory matters given its proximity to the Washington political-power structure. A month before the Nov. 5 election, Mr. McAuliffe came out in favor of new federal emission limits for future coal-fired power plants. That policy position has spooked energy-industry players ahead of critical Environmental Protection Agency emissions guidelines for existing power plants, due next June, that will give states—and governors—authority to apply and enforce the national guidelines. Mr. McAuliffe […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

EIA’s World Oil Exports

Jeffery Brown is our Export Land expert and I would never try to match wits with him on world exports. And congratulations to Jeffery for having the Number one post on Resilience.Org. Top 10 Reader’s Favorites – Resilience and Energy Bulletin 1. Peak oil versus peak exports by Jeffrey J. Brown, Samuel Foucher PhD, originally published by ASPO-USA – Oct 2010 All I can do is post the data the EIA, or someone else supplies. And the EIA only has world export data through 2010. But I found even that pretty startling, especially the Non-OPEC data. Anyway here is the World Crude + Condensate exports, 1986 through 2010 in thousand barrels per day. Notice how the increase in World exports go up almost linear. Actually between 1986 and 2010 the increase averaged 3.41 percent per year for 18 years. But for the last seven years world exports have declined by […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
Category:

Daniel Yergin: Power in 2030 The Roads We May Take

Page added on December 4, 2013 There is no question that we are at a turning point in world energy. But then we are often at a turning point. Just as everybody gets comfortable with what they expect to happen, a big change comes along that undercuts existing assumptions. Just consider: • Less than three years ago, a ‘‘nuclear renaissance’’ seemed to be unfolding. Now, in the aftermath of the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the renaissance has turned into a ‘‘nuclear patchwork’’  —  moving ahead in some countries, stalled or shut down in others. • Five years ago, the United States was suffering an advanced case of ‘‘peak oil’’ and was going to run out of petroleum. Since then, crude oil output has increased by 56 percent and its net oil imports are down 40 percent. • Four years ago, the cost of solar panels seemed stubbornly high. […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
Category:

Federal study warns of sudden climate change woes

A panel of scientists advising the federal government says the world needs to worry more about hard-to-predict sudden changes from global warming than it does about the bigger but more gradual impacts. The National Academy of Sciences looked at warming problems that can occur in years instead of centuries. The panel said Tuesday that melting ice in the Arctic Ocean and mass species extinction are already here and worse than predicted. It says the melting ice could be more of a wild card than originally thought. However, the report said two other abrupt climate threats worried about earlier likely won’t be so sudden. Study co-author Richard Alley compared the threats to the random danger of drunk drivers: If you see them coming, you can get out of the way. © 2013 The Associated Press . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Crude Oil Price Volatility on the Way?

Predictive relationships appear to occur between large, rapid swings in oil price and recessions, stock market crashes and shifts in political polls, as I have previously discussed in articles published in 2010 and 2011 . Given the economic disruptions that nearly always happen in the aftermath of oil shocks, it seems important to understand what is behind the timing of transient instabilities in the oil markets. Last time, I examined whether repetitive patterns could be found in the ebb and flow of oil price changeability (volatility) between 2000 and 2010. To do this, I calculated rolling standard deviations (for explanation, please see Figure 2 in this post ) for a 120-month series of monthly oil prices starting from January 2000. A mathematical tool called Fast Fourier Transform then scanned for repeating patterns in this rolling 10-year sequence. What I found was that from the mid-2000s, changes in oil price […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Why Uranium & Coal Rank High For Energy Return On Energy Invested

Not all energy options are equally good, says Thomas Drolet, principal of Drolet & Associates Energy Services Inc. Using an “Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)” calculation to decide which energy sources yield the most for the least energy investment, Drolet sees hydroelectricity, natural gas, uranium and coal at the top of the list. Drolet adds that the need for reliable power will keep baseload power fueled by uranium and coal at the center of the world’s electricity systems for many years, but he tips  The Mining Report  to some technologies looking for investment that can help make coal a more environment-friendly fuel. The Mining Report:  Tom, thanks for joining us today. I’d like to start out with the concept of an “Energy Return on Energy Invested cliff,” which is being debated widely these days.” What is it and what does it mean […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Why Uranium & Coal Rank High For Energy Return On Energy Invested

Not all energy options are equally good, says Thomas Drolet, principal of Drolet & Associates Energy Services Inc. Using an “Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)” calculation to decide which energy sources yield the most for the least energy investment, Drolet sees hydroelectricity, natural gas, uranium and coal at the top of the list. Drolet adds that the need for reliable power will keep baseload power fueled by uranium and coal at the center of the world’s electricity systems for many years, but he tips  The Mining Report  to some technologies looking for investment that can help make coal a more environment-friendly fuel. The Mining Report:  Tom, thanks for joining us today. I’d like to start out with the concept of an “Energy Return on Energy Invested cliff,” which is being debated widely these days.” What is it and what does it mean […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

GE: The Age of Gas is Upon Us

Natural gas is poised to play a far greater role in the world’s energy mix, threatening to supplant oil and coal in many areas of industrial activity as well as in transportation and in the home, according to a report recently published by General Electric Co. In fact, the report  anticipates global gas consumption will increase by more than a third of its current global consumption by 2025. The findings of the GE report – “The Age of Gas & the Power of Networks” – echo a conversation that Rigzone had with Martin Haigh , energy advisor at Royal Dutch Shell plc’s Scenarios unit, a year ago. Back then, Haigh said that his team had identified that gas was set to play a more important role in world energy markets, driven both by the shale gas revolution and by the inherent flexibility of gas as a fuel. Indeed, Shell […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple