Category:

BP Sees Shale Oil, Gas Shrinking Global Energy Trade

America’s climb to become the world’s largest energy producer is expected to shrink the market for global oil and natural gas trade, with Europe and Asia set to be the only two major oil and gas importing regions by 2035, BP BP.LN -0.54% BP PLC U.K.: London GBp 490.20 -2.65 -0.54% Jan. 16, 2014 8:34 am Volume : 1.58M P/E Ratio 6.05 Market Cap GBp91.42 Billion Dividend Yield 4.73% Rev. per Employee GBp2,864,460 01/15/14 BP’s Growing Buyback Appetite 01/15/14 BP Sees Shale Oil, Gas Shrinki… 01/15/14 Abu Dhabi to Sell Crude at Pre… More quote details and news » BP.LN in Your Value Your Change Short position PLC said in its annual energy forecast Wednesday. BP’s closely watched forecast underscores how the development of shale, or "tight," oil and gas reserves promise to confound long-held assumptions about the global flow of energy over the next 20 years. For decades, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit . Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit . While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier . These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and widespread debt defaults. One of the things I show in this post is that Economic Growth […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Robert Rapier: Grading My 2013 Energy Predictions

Normally I would have had this out two weeks ago, but the 60 Minutes story has thrown me behind schedule. I continue to get lots of comments and questions about Vinod Khosla and now his righteous indignation over how the 60 Minutes story was portrayed (especially since that was the only part of my interview they aired), so I may follow up in a week or so to explain (once more) the precise nature of my criticism — as well as what it isn’t. To be honest, I am tired of writing about it, and I am sure that regular readers are tired of reading about it, but new readers continue to ask questions that indicate they misunderstand the nature of my criticism. In the meantime, here is my report card for my predictions from last year. In the next article, I will […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Brent Crude Trades Near Two-Month Low as Libya Output Recovers

Brent traded near its lowest closing level in two months following the first increase since March in oil supply from Libya , holder of Africa ’s biggest reserves. Futures were little changed in London after declining for the past two days. Libya tripled output to about 650,000 barrels a day in the three weeks to Jan. 13 after talks with protesters enabled the restart of Sharara, its second-biggest field, earlier this month, according to the government. West Texas Intermediate fluctuated amid speculation U.S. crude stockpiles declined for a seventh week. “Investors have turned back to fairly comfortable long term fundamental prospects, partly because of a modest recovery in Libyan supplies recently,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov , an analyst at VTB Capital in London. “Today, market participants will pay close attention to the U.S. weekly fuel inventory numbers.” Brent for February settlement was down 1 cent at $106.38 a barrel on […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

EIA: Gas production, consumption up in US, down in OECD Europe

During a decade before 2005, natural gas production remained relatively flat in both US and European member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development . OECD Europe gas consumption rose steadily over the period, outpacing production growth by 2%/year, but it was flat in US. This situation has been changed after 2005, according to a recent analysis from the US Energy Information Administration . Since 2005, gas production from shale plays has increased rapidly in US, twice as fast as gas consumption growth, reaching 24 tcf in 2012. Gas consumption, though not rising as fast as production, still grew by 16% over that same time period to 25.2 tcf in 2012. Use of gas from electric power generation accounted for most of the consumption gains. Net imports of gas have been reduced by 58% during those years. However, total natural gas production in OECD Europe has decreased […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

US has concerns about Iran-Russia oil-for-goods swap reports

The White House said on Monday it was concerned about a recent report that Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month, a deal a spokeswoman said could trigger U.S. sanctions. Such a deal would significantly boost Iran’s oil exports, which have been slashed by more than half to about 1 million barrels a day by U.S. and European economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to accept curbs to its nuclear program. Russian and Iranian sources close to the barter negotiations said the deal could see Russia buy as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. "We are concerned about these reports and Secretary (of State John) Kerry directly expressed this concern with (Russian) Foreign Minister (Sergei) Lavrov today," Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the White […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Bombings in Iraq striking markets, funeral kill 41

A wave of bombings across Iraq striking busy markets and a funeral north of Baghdad killed at least 41 people Wednesday, authorities said, as the country remains gripped by violence after al-Qaida-linked militants took control of two cities in western Anbar province. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks. Insurgent groups, mainly al-Qaida’s local branch and other Sunni militants, frequently target civilians in cafes and public areas, as well as Shiites and members of Iraqi security forces in an attempt to undermine confidence in the Shiite-led government and stir sectarian tensions. The deadliest attack struck a funeral in the town of Buhriz, about 60 kilometers (35 miles) north of Baghdad. That bombing killed 16 people and wounded 26 inside of a mourning tent, a police officer said. The funeral was for an anti-al-Qaida Sunni militiaman who died of natural causes two days ago. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Turkey finds oil near Iran, Iraq border

A state-run oil company in Turkey said Tuesday it discovered oil while working in what it described as tough conditions near the borders with Iraq and Iran. State-run Turkey Petroleum Co., known by its Turkish initials TPAO, said it discovered oil while working in Sirnak province near the southern border with Iraq and Iran. Gokhan Akin, a regional TPAO director, was quoted by Turkish newspaper Hurriyet as saying the discovery was made in tough geological conditions. “The oil at the well is at the value of the neighboring country’s [Iraq] oil but the test studies for the daily capacity will be completed within this week,” he said Tuesday. The company offered no estimate of the reserve potential at the Caliskan-1 well, which it started exploring six months ago. TPAO said this is its first discovery of so-called high gravity oil in the region. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Exclusive: With Muslim Brotherhood crushed, Egypt sets sights on Hamas

After crushing the Muslim Brotherhood at home, Egypt’s military rulers plan to undermine the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which runs the neighboring Gaza Strip, senior Egyptian security officials told Reuters. The aim, which the officials say could take years to pull off, includes working with Hamas’s political rivals Fatah and supporting popular anti-Hamas activities in Gaza, four security and diplomatic officials said. Since it seized power in Egypt last summer, Egypt’s military has squeezed Gaza’s economy by destroying most of the 1,200 tunnels used to smuggle food, cars and weapons to the coastal enclave, which is under an Israeli blockade. Now Cairo is becoming even more ambitious in its drive to eradicate what it says are militant organizations that threaten its national security. Intelligence operatives, with help from Hamas’s political rivals and activists, plan to undermine the credibility of Hamas, which seized control of Gaza in […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

South Sudan Rebels Seize Oil-Rich State’s Capital Amid Talks

South Sudanese rebels said they captured Malakal, the capital of oil-rich Upper Nile state, as talks aimed at securing a cease-fire in the nation’s four-week-old conflict continued for a second day. Opposition forces loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar seized Malakal today after 72 hours of “heavy fighting,” rebel spokesman Brigadier-General Lul Ruai Koang said in a phone interview. The fighters now plan to recapture Bentiu, capital of neighboring Unity state, “within days,” he said. The rebels lost control of Bentiu on Jan. 10 when government forces advanced on the town. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir ’s spokesman Ateny Wek Ateny said fighting was continuing in Malakal after the rebels “pushed our forces” back to the airport. “It’s not yet clear who’s in control,” he said. Government and rebel negotiators held another round of talks in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa , aimed at ending hostilities that broke […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple