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India to cut Iran crude imports to 9-9.5 mil mt in 2014-15

India will lower its crude oil imports from Iran by 15% to 9 million-9.5 million mt in fiscal year 2014-2015 (April-March), from an estimated 11 million mt in fiscal 2013-2014, a senior petroleum ministry official said Tuesday. Essar Oil and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd. — two of the largest importers of Iranian crude in the country — are expected to end the current fiscal year with imports of 4 million-4.5 million mt each, and Indian Oil Corp. will import around 1 million mt, R.K Singh, joint secretary for refineries at the petroleum ministry, said on the sidelines of the Petrotech 2014 conference near New Delhi. This is down from 13.3 million mt in fiscal year 2012-2013. The cut is in line with the 15% annual reduction countries have to show to be eligible for US waivers from sanctions against Iran, he said. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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The Primary Energy Tale of Two Continents

UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, Ed Davey, is worried about rising energy costs in Europe whilst energy costs in N America are going in the opposite direction. But he doesn’t seem to understand the root cause of the situation or how to tackle the problem. Primary energy production peaked in Europe in 1996 at 1138 million tonnes oil (mmtoe) equivalent and has since fallen to 970 mmtoe in 2012. That is a drop of 15% (Figure 1) In N America, primary energy production hit a new peak in 2012 of 2512 million tonnes oil equivalent. That is up 8.5% since 1996 (Figure 1) Rising energy production in N America and falling Energy production in Europe lies at the heart of energy prices trading in opposite directions on either side of The Atlantic. Europe has a population of ~ 739 million who produce 1.31 tonnes oil […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Peak oil is real and it’s here, suggests new research

The fear that we have reached peak oil seems to have abated in recent years as the US and other countries began extraction of shale oil. But that doesn’t mean we should think that this problem has gone away. According to UPI.com , new research published by the Royal Society’s Philosophical Transactions A suggests that the shale gas reserves are just a false dawn and that oil production has reached a terminal tailspin, as supply increasingly struggles to keep up with demand. Oil rig with gas flare: we’ve already passed peak oil according to new research The impact of this will be felt by economies all around the world, resulting to exploiting ever-more difficult to extract oil supplies in an attempt to prop up supply. Former BP Geologist and co-author of the new research paper, Dr Richard G Miller told students at the University College London that data from […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit . Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit . While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier . These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Crude Slides After Iran Deal Advances

Crude-oil futures were trading somewhat lower Monday, after further cementation of a deal that could return some Iranian crude to the market and with weaker U.S. economic data and prospective Federal Reserve tapering of economic stimulus both on the agenda. Brent crude for February delivery was down 52 cents, or 0.5%, at $106.72 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were down 57 cents at $92.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Iran and six major powers reached an agreement over the weekend, which means a deal reached in November to curb Tehran’s nuclear program will come into force Jan. 20. Next Monday will therefore mark the start of a six to 12-month period in which the conditions for a final nuclear agreement must be fulfilled. In November Iran committed itself to eliminate its stocks of 20% enriched uranium within six months and limit the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil price falls to near $92

Oil prices fell Monday after a big jump in the previous trading session that was sparked by expectations the Fed might delay stimulus reduction. Benchmark U.S. oil for February delivery was down 36 cents to $92.36 a barrel at 0825 GMT in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged $1.06 to settle at $92.72 a barrel on Friday. The U.S. added just 74,000 thousand jobs in December, way below market expectations of 196,000 jobs. The unemployment rate fell from 7.0 percent to 6.7 percent, but it was mostly because of a drop in the number of people seeking work. The weaker hiring led to speculation the Fed would halt or slow plans to reduce its bond purchasing program. The stimulus, which has kept interest rates low, has helped underpin oil prices by weakening the dollar and also by attracting investors to commodities in search of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Hedge Fund Bullish Oil Wagers Drop as Fuel Supply Gains: Energy

Hedge funds became less bullish on crude oil for the first time in six weeks as U.S. inventories of fuel expanded at a time of weakening demand. Money managers cut net-long positions, or wagers on rising prices, for benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude by 8.6 percent in the week ended Jan. 7, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. It was the biggest decline since June. Short positions gained the most since April. Crude fell to an eight-month low on Jan. 9, propelled by rising U.S. supplies of gasoline, diesel and heating oil. Fuel demand dropped in the three weeks ended Jan. 3, the longest stretch of losses since June 2012 and domestic crude production rose to the highest level since 1988, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. “At the end of last year there was a big run-up in prices that was impossible to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Deal on curbing Iran's nuclear activity to take effect January 20

A deal for Iran to freeze parts of its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief will take effect on January 20, giving world powers and Tehran six months to agree a complete end to a standoff that has raised the risk of a wider Middle East war. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry cautioned that the next stage in negotiations would be "very difficult" after Iran, Washington and the European Union announced the launch date for the interim deal struck in Geneva in November. Iran will receive some easing of economic sanctions from January 20, including the suspension of restrictions on Iranian exports of petrochemicals, a senior U.S. official said. The official said such immediate relief – which will hinge on U.N. inspectors confirming that Iran is curbing enrichment of uranium – would include imports for its auto manufacturing sector and trade in gold and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Deal on curbing Iran’s nuclear activity to take effect January 20

A deal for Iran to freeze parts of its nuclear program in return for sanctions relief will take effect on January 20, giving world powers and Tehran six months to agree a complete end to a standoff that has raised the risk of a wider Middle East war. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry cautioned that the next stage in negotiations would be "very difficult" after Iran, Washington and the European Union announced the launch date for the interim deal struck in Geneva in November. Iran will receive some easing of economic sanctions from January 20, including the suspension of restrictions on Iranian exports of petrochemicals, a senior U.S. official said. The official said such immediate relief – which will hinge on U.N. inspectors confirming that Iran is curbing enrichment of uranium – would include imports for its auto manufacturing sector and trade in gold and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iranian Nuclear Accord Advances

World powers and Iran agreed to begin implementing a pact to curb Tehran’s nuclear program on Jan. 20, setting the stage for six months of diplomacy intended to end Tehran’s atomic weapons threat, officials said. Under Sunday’s deal, Iran will stop producing near-weapons grade nuclear fuel and start rolling back or freezing other nuclear work next week, said U.S., European and Iranian officials. In turn, the U.S. and European Union will start easing some of their punitive economic sanctions on Iran, starting next week with suspending a ban on Iran’s trade of petrochemicals, autos and precious metals. U.S. and European officials hailed the latest milestone as a way to peacefully contain Iran’s nuclear program, while acknowledging that failure was a real possibility given the complexity of the talks. Still, the accord fueled political friction within the U.S. Senior U.S. lawmakers quickly criticized the deal for not going far enough […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple