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Shell blames high refining costs for warning

Royal Dutch Shell blamed continuing woes in refining, fuel theft in Nigeria and higher exploration costs for its first profit warning in 10 years. The company said fourth-quarter earnings would be “significantly lower” than last year in the first update under new chief executive Ben van Beurden, who took over as chief executive from Peter Voser at the beginning of the year. Shell said it would take a $700m charge related to its exploration and production activities and added that its upstream American business, which has been hurt by falling natural gas prices, would continue to make a loss. It also said that its downstream earnings in the fourth quarter of last year had been hit by “significantly weaker” industry refining conditions, in particular in Asia-Pacific and Europe. Shares in the company, which fell 3.3 per cent to £21.19 in early trading, have underperformed the European […]

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Sluggish Economy Prompts Europe to Reconsider Its Intentions on Climate Change

Some officials are disappointed by the lack of binding goals for renewables. Gordon Welters for The New York Times The European Union, which for years has sought to lead the world in addressing climate change, is tempering its ambitions and considering turning mandatory targets for renewable energy into just goals. The union’s policy-making body is also unlikely to restrict exploration for shale gas using the disputed technique known as hydraulic fracturing. A deep and lasting economic slowdown, persistently high prices for renewable energy sources and years of inconclusive international negotiations are giving European officials second thoughts about how aggressively to remake the Continent’s energy-production industries. The details are still being negotiated in Brussels, but officials said the European Commission’s energy and climate proposal will probably include a binding target of reducing emissions by 35 percent to 40 percent by 2030. Some officials wanted […]

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BNK Petroleum upbeat about Polish shale

BNK Petroleum, which has headquarters in California, said it was upbeat about the shale potential in Poland following the start of a drilling campaign. BNK said it started a horizontal drilling program at Polish shale well Gapowo B-1 and expects to spend the next 30 days on the operation. The company said it was targeting gas deposits encountered in similar operations, where "the average and maximum total gas readings were much higher than those seen in the company’s other Baltic Basin wells." New drilling technologies like horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, dubbed fracking, are used in shale deposits to access oil and gas reserves previously out of reach. That helped put the United States in a leadership position in terms of production of those resources. Poland is one of the Eastern European countries thought to be rich in shale gas, though the U.S. […]

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Earth May Already Be Running Out of Grain

Page added on January 15, 2014 We have all heard of peak oil, but peak grains? A study released by the Institute of Agriculture and Natural Resources at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln suggests we may be heading in that direction — if we’re not already there. The UNL study indicates that about 30% of major global cereal crops — including rice, wheat and corn — may have already reached their maximum yields. In fact, yields of these crops seem to have already hit a plateau and some are already decreasing, especially in eastern Asia, Europe and the United States. “We found widespread deceleration in the relative rate of increase of average yields of the major cereal crops during the 1990-2010 period in countries with greatest production of these crops,” says an article based on the study in Nature Communications . The article notes that there was a noticeable plateau […]

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Coming ‘oil glut’ may push global economy into deflation

Page added on January 16, 2014 OPEC spare capacity set to reach levels last seen in the depths of the financial crisis in 2009, analysts say One piece of the jigsaw puzzle is missing to complete the deflation landscape across the West: a slide in oil prices. This is becoming more likely each month. Turmoil across the Middle East and parts of Africa has choked supply over the past two years, keeping Brent crude near $110 a barrel despite a broader commodity slump. Cotton and corn prices have halved, as has the UBS (Xetra: UB0BL6 – news ) index of industrial metals. Such anomalies rarely last. “We estimate that crude oil is now the mostly richly priced commodity in the world,” says Deutsche Bank (Xetra: DBK.DE – news ) in a fresh report. Michael Lewis, the bank’s commodity strategist, said markets face an “new oil supply glut” as three […]

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U.N. Says Lag in Confronting Climate Woes Will Be Costly

Gains in renewable energy are being swamped by rising emissions from fossil fuels in fast-growing countries like China, according to a new report on climate change. Agence France-Presse — Getty Images Nations have so dragged their feet in battling climate change that the situation has grown critical and the risk of severe economic disruption is rising, according to a draft United Nations report. Another 15 years of failure to limit carbon emissions could make the problem virtually impossible to solve with current technologies, experts found. A delay would most likely force future generations to develop the ability to suck greenhouse gases out of the atmosphere and store them underground to preserve the livability of the planet, the report found. But it is not clear whether such technologies will ever exist at the necessary scale, and even if they […]

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The case for exporting crude oil

Looking over the numbers, and knowing the way the North American oil market works, it’s becoming increasingly apparent to me that current US crude oil production cannot be sustained unless the Department of Commerce begins to permit exports beyond Canada. The surge in US crude oil production, led by Texas and North Dakota, which account for more than 45% of all domestic production, can only be sustained if there are new processing facilities — refining capacity or possibly condensate splitters to take care of the higher-gravity oil — a change in US refiners’ crude slate, or the final option, exports. There is some new refining and splitting capacity being added which will consume about 750,000 b/d of light sweet crudes and condensates, according to industry estimates. (OPEC & IEA estimates are at 500,00 b/d but US sources say this excludes condensate splitting capacity, so if you add condensate splitting […]

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Peak Oil: Clear As Mud # 2

As I mentioned in the first post of this short series, we are once again being subjected to differing interpretations of the same set of facts. It does make planning and strategizing a bit more challenging…. YES? NO? UP? DOWN? LEFT? RIGHT? Global oil demand will expand by 14 million barrels to average 101 million a day in 2035, according to the IEA report. The share of conventional crude will drop to 65 million barrels by the end of the period because of growth in unconventional supplies, the IEA said without providing current data. [1] How much of the decline in crude production has been counterbalanced by the new US shale oil production to date? The answer is barely 2 million barrels per day — which required more than half the world’s oil rigs outside Russia and China to produce. Worse, detailed studies […]

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Oil Futures Ease in Asia After Overnight Gains

Crude-oil futures slipped in Asian trade Thursday, with Brent crude posting a sharper decline than the U.S. oil benchmark. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in February traded at $94.12 a barrel at 0649 GMT, down $0.05 in the Globex electronic session. February Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.42 to $106.71 a barrel. U.S. weekly crude stocks fell for the seventh consecutive week–by 7.7 million barrels to 350.2 million barrels–in the week ended Jan. 10, data showed, compared with an expected decline of 800,000 barrels, boosting oil prices overnight. Strong growth in domestic oil production had driven up oil supply in the U.S. for most of last year, but inventories declined toward the year-end due to seasonal factors and have now fallen by 41 million barrels since November. "Refinery operators are taking advantage of superior refining margins that are being […]

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Oil prices ease after sharp gains

Oil prices eased Thursday but remained above $94 a barrel after sharp gains a day earlier on improved demand in the U.S. Benchmark U.S. crude oil for February delivery was down 8 cents at $94.09 a barrel at midafternoon Kuala Lumpur time in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract surged $1.58 to settle at $94.17 in New York on Wednesday. Brent crude, used to set prices for international varieties of crude, was down 44 cents at $105.83. The U.S. Energy Department reported that oil supplies fell bigger than expected by 7.7 million barrels last week, the seventh straight decline. It was sharply above market expectations of a 1.6 million barrels decline. The news pushed oil above $94 a barrel on Wednesday for the first time in two weeks. Oil prices have been weak this year amid concerns that ample crude […]

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WTI Oil Trades Near Two-Week High as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Drop

West Texas Intermediate traded near the highest price in two weeks after government data showed crude inventories fell to the lowest level since March 2012 in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. Futures were little changed in New York after advancing 1.7 percent yesterday, the most in six weeks. Crude stockpiles slid by 7.66 million barrels to 350.2 million in the seven days ended Jan. 10, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s a seventh week of declines and is more than five times a 1.3 million drop forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. “It’s a big surprise on the inventory number,” said Michael McCarthy , a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney who predicts investors may sell WTI contracts at about $97.10 a barrel. “It was a big draw. We have a clear short-term uptrend in place now.” WTI for February delivery was at $94.07 a […]

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U.S. Imports of Crude Fall Below 7 Million Barrels a Day

U.S. crude-oil imports dropped below 7 million barrels a day for the second time in 14 years as domestic output grew, the Energy Information Administration said. Shipments dropped 1.07 million barrels a day to 6.89 million in the week ended Jan. 10, the EIA, the Energy Department’s statistical arm, said today in a weekly report. They reached 6.86 million on Dec. 6, the lowest level since Jan. 28, 2000. Imports averaged 9.35 million in the past 10 years. Domestic production increased to the most in more than 25 years as fracking and horizontal drilling boosted output from shale formations, including Bakken in North Dakota and Eagle Ford in Texas . West Texas Intermediate crude, the U.S. benchmark, traded $14 cheaper than the European benchmark Brent on Jan. 10. The gap has been above $10 since Nov. 7. “We have increasing supplies of domestic crude,” said Tom Finlon, Jupiter, Florida-based […]

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Natural Gas Futures Snap Three-Day Winning Streak

Natural gas futures finished lower Wednesday, as traders paused following a sharp rally that had sent prices up nearly 10% over the previous three sessions. Analysts say many market participants likely booked profits from the run-up ahead of a government storage report likely to show a record storage withdrawal of 299 billion cubic feet last week. Natural gas for February delivery fell 4.4 cents, or 1%, to $4.325 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had risen as much as 1.4% earlier in the day, before turning lower for good late in the afternoon. "I think natural gas got near last week’s […]

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Analysts call for US EIA to estimate 300-304 Bcf gas storage withdrawal

A consensus of analysts expects the US Energy Information Administration on Thursday will estimate a record withdrawal from natural gas storage of between 300 Bcf and 304 Bcf for the reporting week that ended Friday. A draw from stocks within consensus expectations would easily surpass the largest pull on record of 285 Bcf in the week that ended December 13, 2013. It would be substantially larger than a 156-Bcf withdrawal in the same week a year ago and the five-year-average drawdown of 159 Bcf, according to EIA data. Article continues below… Request a free trial of: Gas Daily Gas Daily Gas Daily offers the most detailed coverage of natural gas prices at interstate and intrastate pipeline and pooling points in major U.S. markets. Gas Daily keeps you informed about complex state and federal regulations that affect competition in the gas industry. You will also […]

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Russia says Iran essential for finding Syria peace

Russia says Iran will "inevitably" take part in any resolution of the civil war in Syria, and that Moscow is not working on a separate track with Damascus and Tehran to resolve the conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Thursday that Tehran should be part of attempts to end the war that has so far killed over 100,000 people. He spoke after meeting Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif. Lavrov is scheduled to meet with Syrian foreign minister in Moscow on Friday. Syria’s main Western-backed opposition group continues to demand the ouster of Syrian President Bashar Assad as a precondition for ending the conflict. Russia has insisted on the participation of Iran in upcoming talks in Switzerland, and the two countries have been strong backers of the Assad regime. © 2014 The Associated Press . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten […]

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Iran wants to be at Syria talks but rejects conditions

Iran wants to take part in next week’s international peace conference on Syria but will not attend if conditions are set for its participation, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said on Thursday. The United States says Iranian delegates should be at the conference in Montreux, Switzerland, only if they are willing to accept an agreement reached at a June 2012 peace conference in Geneva calling for a transitional government body to be established in Damascus "by mutual consent". Washington interprets that language as requiring President Bashar al-Assad’s departure from power but Russia and Iran reject this interpretation. "If the Islamic Republic of Iran is invited like all other participants in the conference, it will take part in this event," Zarif told a news conference after talks with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He added: "We do not accept any pre-conditions for our country’s participation." Lavrov urged […]

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Genel Energy says Kurdish oil exports imminent

Genel Energy, led by former BP boss Tony Hayward , said Wednesday it expects oil from a pipeline in the Kurdish north of Iraq to be exported from Turkey soon. Genel said commissioning of independent pipeline infrastructure in the Kurdish north of Iraq is ongoing and “exports [are] expected to commence in the near future.” The Kurdistan Regional Government has already sent oil to a storage facility at the Turkish port of Ceyhan and Genel said deliveries should ramp up throughout 2014. Hayward said an energy agreement between the KRG and Turkey, coupled with the completion of the pipeline’s infrastructure, should lead to a rise in oil exports from his company’s Taq Taq and Tawke oil field in the Kurdish north. Genel said Taq Taq produced an average 77,000 barrels of oil per day and Tawke produced an average 39,000 barrels per day last […]

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Iraq: Maliki threatens Kurds if they export oil to Turkey

As if Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki didn’t have enough problems battling city-grabbing al-Qaida insurgents in western Iraq, his simmering faceoff with independence-minded Kurds in the north over their drive to export oil to neighboring Turkey looks like it’s about to boil over as well. The Kurdistan Regional Government, which runs the land-locked, semiautonomous Kurdish enclave that borders Turkey, says it started pumping crude from its oil fields directly to Turkey through a newly constructed pipeline to the export terminal at Ceyhan on Turkey’s Mediterranean coast in early January. That openly defied Baghdad, which has branded the operation bypassing the state oil export network as illegal. The only other export outlet for the Kurds is to the south through the Persian Gulf, but Baghdad controls the export terminals there. Maliki insists the central government has sole authority over Iraq’s massive energy resources, and declared the […]

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Egypt voters overwhelmingly back constitution: official sources

Egyptians who voted in a referendum overwhelmingly approved a new constitution, official sources said, citing early results of a ballot that could set the stage for army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi to declare his candidacy for president. About 90 percent of voters approved the constitution, the state news agency and a government official said. It comes as no surprise: the constitution won wide support among Egyptians who backed the army overthrow of President Mohamed Mursi in July, and there was little or no trace of a no campaign as the state presses a campaign on dissent. Mursi’s Muslim Brotherhood, which is sure to dispute the official numbers, had called for a boycott of the two-day vote, seeing it as part of a coup against a leader freely elected 18 months ago. It had called for anti-government protests. After nine people were killed in clashes between […]

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Exxon to Chevron Face Two-Year Wait in Mexico Oil Opening

Oil companies from Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) to Chevron Corp. (CVX) will have to wait another two years before investing an estimated $20 billion in Mexico’s recently opened oil and gas industry. Foreign crude producers will be allowed to bid on fields for exploration and begin developing infrastructure and operations as soon as late next year, Deputy Energy Minister Enrique Ochoa said in an interview at the ministry in Mexico City. Prior to granting the operating licenses, the legal framework has to be determined and state oil producer Petroleos Mexicanos must select the fields it plans to continue to develop, he said. “We estimate that by the end of 2015 or beginning of 2016, we could be in the stage of implementation,” Ochoa said. “We must be professional and careful with the necessary institutional development prior to the following rounds.” President Enrique Pena Nieto ended the 75-year production monopoly […]

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China’s dangerous credit addiction

Time for Beijing to prioritise stability over growth For the past two decades China’s turbocharged growth has been the envy of the rich world as well as an aspiration for other emerging markets. Surging exports and intensive state-driven investment have lifted millions out of poverty and propelled Beijing into the exclusive club of global economic superpowers. More recently, however, doubts have emerged over the sustainability of this development model. In particular, critics point to China’s increasing addiction to cheap credit , which began when Beijing unleashed its large-scale monetary stimulus at the height of the financial crisis. Between 2008 and 2012, China’s total debt as a proportion of gross domestic product nearly doubled, jumping from 125 per cent to 215 per cent. This rise would not have been so problematic if the cash had been used to fund profitable investment. However, the opposite is often true. The more vibrant […]

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China targets coal-to-gas output of 50 bil cu m by 2020

China is targeting to raise its synthetic coal-to-gas output to 50 billion cubic meters by 2020, accounting for over 12% of domestic supply, an official with the National Energy Administration said Wednesday. But actual output may fall short of the government’s target, as not all of the planned coal-to-gas projects may come onstream, according to a report released the same day by state-owned China National Petroleum Corp.’s Economics and Technology Research Institute. Yang Lei, deputy director of the Department of Oil and Gas at the NEA under the National Development and Reform Commission, said coal-to-gas output is targeted to hit 50 billion cu m by 2020, echoing statements made earlier this week by Wu Xinxiong, NDRC’s deputy director as well as head of the NEA. "According to our initial plan, the output of coal-to-gas will reach 50 billion cu m by 2020, accounting for […]

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Japan Approves Tepco Turnaround Plan

T, the utility at the center of Japan’s worst nuclear accident, won government approval Wednesday for a restructuring that will allow it to receive an additional ¥4 trillion ($38 billion) in state funding. But the new plan doesn’t offer a clear road map to return the company to financial health as it struggles with the high costs of cleaning up the devastated Fukushima Daiichi plant and paying compensation to those in the area affected by the high level of […]

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Alaska to Invest in Natural Gas Project

Alaska officials want to invest billions of state dollars in a major natural gas transportation project that they say will increase energy sales and boost state revenue. The administration of Gov. Sean Parnell, a Republican, said Wednesday that it would seek lawmakers’ approval of an agreement with several big energy companies that would allow Alaska to become an equity partner in the export project, which state officials have been pursuing for years. Oil production has been declining in Alaska, prompting Mr. Parnell and his predecessors to seek ways to shore up the state’s finances, which have been heavily dependent on oil taxes and royalties. Officials have been eager to unlock natural gas that is trapped underground near the Prudhoe Bay oil fields and in another gas-rich region called Point Thomson. "We have a compelling interest in seeing these resources monetized," Natural Resources Commissioner Joe Balash said […]

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Additional Comment Period May Prolong Keystone Review

The U.S. State Department will give the public more time to comment on the Keystone XL pipeline, which could delay the final decision on a project that has been under review for more than five years. The department is completing a final environmental assessment of the proposed pipeline that would carry oil sands crude from Canada to refineries along the Gulf of Mexico coast. When the assessment is released, State Department officials will start a process to determine whether TransCanada Corp. (TRP) ’s $5.4 billion project is in the national interest before President Barack Obama makes a final decision. The agency will seek public comment during the national interest determination review period, according to the official who requested anonymity to discuss decisions. The agency didn’t say how much time the public will have to submit comments. “At some point you have to say the time that it has taken […]

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Toyota Pledges to Top U.S. Push to Double Fuel Economy by 2025

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) , the world’s biggest seller of hybrid-electric vehicles, vowed to surpass U.S. rules intended to double fuel economy and reduce carbon emissions . Automakers agreed in 2011 to a plan by President Barack Obama targeting an industrywide increase in Corporate Average Fuel Economy, or CAFE, to 54.5 miles per gallon of gasoline by 2025. Increased sales of hybrids and other alternative-powered autos will help Toyota comply with that rule, said Bob Carter , the automaker’s U.S. senior vice president. “The 2015 to 2025 CAFE regulations will require automakers to significantly reduce emissions and increase fuel economy across their fleet of vehicles,” Carter said in prepared remarks at Deutsche Bank AG’s auto industry conference in Detroit yesterday. “That won’t be easy, but at Toyota we plan to exceed these new standards.” The U.S. efficiency push has brought dozens of new hybrids, plug-in cars, electric vehicles and […]

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TransCanada Will Look At Rail If Keystone Rejected

The chief executive of TransCanada said Wednesday if the Obama administration doesn’t approve the controversial Keystone XL pipeline his company will look to the more dangerous alternative of building build rail terminals in Alberta and Oklahoma. President Barack Obama is expected to decide early this year on Keystone XL, which is under review at the State Department. The long-delayed pipeline would carry oil from Canada to the Gulf Coast. TransCanada CEO Russ Girling said pipelines are "by far a safer alternative" to oil trains but said if customers want him to build rail terminals he will. He said he’s in discussions with oil and rail companies. Concerns have been raised about the increasing use of rail to transport oil throughout North America. A number of recent derailments have worried both officials and residents close to rail lines. In July, 47 people were killed in Lac-Megantic, […]

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Polish shale gas may be too hard to exploit

The geological characteristics in Poland means it may be hard for energy companies to duplicate the shale gas success in the United States, an analyst said. New drilling technologies used for shale deposits have given energy companies access to oil and gas reserves previously out of reach, putting the United States in a leadership position in terms of production of those resources. Paul Stevens, an oil analyst at London think tank Chatham House, told the New York Times it may be tough to replicate that success in Poland. “The geology has not worked out,” he was quoted as saying Tuesday. Chevron, which has headquarters in California, is one of the few energy companies still exploring the shale reserve potential in Poland. Marathon Oil, which has headquarters in Texas, gave up on its Polish shale ambitions in 2012 and Italian energy company Eni is said […]

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New Vehicle Registrations Fell for the Successive Straight Year in 2013

;European car sales fell for the sixth straight year in 2013, despite a pickup in registrations in the final months of the year that sparked hope of a broader recovery in the region. The European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association, known as ACEA, said Thursday that 11.9 million new cars were registered in the European Union last year, a decline of 1.7% compared with the previous year. The performance marks the industry’s worst year since ACEA began collecting EU data in 2003. A moderate recovery of car sales in the second half of the year gathered pace in December, according to the ACEA data, but wasn’t strong enough to pull the industry into positive territory for the year. In December, new car registrations rose 13% to 906,294 vehicles—the strongest rate in the month of December since 2009 but still one of the lowest showings to date, ACEA said. Registrations also grew […]

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BP energy outlook sees 41% rise in world energy use to 2035

BP PLC’s Energy Outlook 2035, released Jan. 15, forecasts that world energy consumption will increase 41% between 2012 and 2035. Countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, especially China and India, are believed to contribute to virtually all of this growth. Global energy intensity in 2035 is 36% lower than what it was in 2012, while energy per capita use will increase by 14%. According to the outlook, all fuels experience growth, with the fastest in renewables (+6.4% p.a.). By 2035, 14% of world electricity is from renewable sources, up from just 5% in 2012. Among fossil fuels, natural gas is fastest (+1.9% p.a.), followed by coal (+1.1% p.a.) and oil (+0.8% p.a.). Out to 2035, more than a third of global liquids will be supplied by the US, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. Natural gas supplies will reach nearly 500 bcfd by 2035, of which 20% […]

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BP Sees Shale Oil, Gas Shrinking Global Energy Trade

America’s climb to become the world’s largest energy producer is expected to shrink the market for global oil and natural gas trade, with Europe and Asia set to be the only two major oil and gas importing regions by 2035, BP BP.LN -0.54% BP PLC U.K.: London GBp 490.20 -2.65 -0.54% Jan. 16, 2014 8:34 am Volume : 1.58M P/E Ratio 6.05 Market Cap GBp91.42 Billion Dividend Yield 4.73% Rev. per Employee GBp2,864,460 01/15/14 BP’s Growing Buyback Appetite 01/15/14 BP Sees Shale Oil, Gas Shrinki… 01/15/14 Abu Dhabi to Sell Crude at Pre… More quote details and news » BP.LN in Your Value Your Change Short position PLC said in its annual energy forecast Wednesday. BP’s closely watched forecast underscores how the development of shale, or "tight," oil and gas reserves promise to confound long-held assumptions about the global flow of energy over the next 20 years. For decades, […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit . Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit . While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier . These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and widespread debt defaults. One of the things I show in this post is that Economic Growth […]

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Robert Rapier: Grading My 2013 Energy Predictions

Normally I would have had this out two weeks ago, but the 60 Minutes story has thrown me behind schedule. I continue to get lots of comments and questions about Vinod Khosla and now his righteous indignation over how the 60 Minutes story was portrayed (especially since that was the only part of my interview they aired), so I may follow up in a week or so to explain (once more) the precise nature of my criticism — as well as what it isn’t. To be honest, I am tired of writing about it, and I am sure that regular readers are tired of reading about it, but new readers continue to ask questions that indicate they misunderstand the nature of my criticism. In the meantime, here is my report card for my predictions from last year. In the next article, I will […]

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Brent Crude Trades Near Two-Month Low as Libya Output Recovers

Brent traded near its lowest closing level in two months following the first increase since March in oil supply from Libya , holder of Africa ’s biggest reserves. Futures were little changed in London after declining for the past two days. Libya tripled output to about 650,000 barrels a day in the three weeks to Jan. 13 after talks with protesters enabled the restart of Sharara, its second-biggest field, earlier this month, according to the government. West Texas Intermediate fluctuated amid speculation U.S. crude stockpiles declined for a seventh week. “Investors have turned back to fairly comfortable long term fundamental prospects, partly because of a modest recovery in Libyan supplies recently,” said Andrey Kryuchenkov , an analyst at VTB Capital in London. “Today, market participants will pay close attention to the U.S. weekly fuel inventory numbers.” Brent for February settlement was down 1 cent at $106.38 a barrel on […]

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EIA: Gas production, consumption up in US, down in OECD Europe

During a decade before 2005, natural gas production remained relatively flat in both US and European member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development . OECD Europe gas consumption rose steadily over the period, outpacing production growth by 2%/year, but it was flat in US. This situation has been changed after 2005, according to a recent analysis from the US Energy Information Administration . Since 2005, gas production from shale plays has increased rapidly in US, twice as fast as gas consumption growth, reaching 24 tcf in 2012. Gas consumption, though not rising as fast as production, still grew by 16% over that same time period to 25.2 tcf in 2012. Use of gas from electric power generation accounted for most of the consumption gains. Net imports of gas have been reduced by 58% during those years. However, total natural gas production in OECD Europe has decreased […]

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US has concerns about Iran-Russia oil-for-goods swap reports

The White House said on Monday it was concerned about a recent report that Iran and Russia are negotiating an oil-for-goods swap worth $1.5 billion a month, a deal a spokeswoman said could trigger U.S. sanctions. Such a deal would significantly boost Iran’s oil exports, which have been slashed by more than half to about 1 million barrels a day by U.S. and European economic sanctions aimed at forcing Iran to accept curbs to its nuclear program. Russian and Iranian sources close to the barter negotiations said the deal could see Russia buy as much as 500,000 barrels a day of Iranian oil in exchange for Russian equipment and goods. "We are concerned about these reports and Secretary (of State John) Kerry directly expressed this concern with (Russian) Foreign Minister (Sergei) Lavrov today," Caitlin Hayden, spokeswoman for the White […]

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Bombings in Iraq striking markets, funeral kill 41

A wave of bombings across Iraq striking busy markets and a funeral north of Baghdad killed at least 41 people Wednesday, authorities said, as the country remains gripped by violence after al-Qaida-linked militants took control of two cities in western Anbar province. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the attacks. Insurgent groups, mainly al-Qaida’s local branch and other Sunni militants, frequently target civilians in cafes and public areas, as well as Shiites and members of Iraqi security forces in an attempt to undermine confidence in the Shiite-led government and stir sectarian tensions. The deadliest attack struck a funeral in the town of Buhriz, about 60 kilometers (35 miles) north of Baghdad. That bombing killed 16 people and wounded 26 inside of a mourning tent, a police officer said. The funeral was for an anti-al-Qaida Sunni militiaman who died of natural causes two days ago. […]

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Turkey finds oil near Iran, Iraq border

A state-run oil company in Turkey said Tuesday it discovered oil while working in what it described as tough conditions near the borders with Iraq and Iran. State-run Turkey Petroleum Co., known by its Turkish initials TPAO, said it discovered oil while working in Sirnak province near the southern border with Iraq and Iran. Gokhan Akin, a regional TPAO director, was quoted by Turkish newspaper Hurriyet as saying the discovery was made in tough geological conditions. “The oil at the well is at the value of the neighboring country’s [Iraq] oil but the test studies for the daily capacity will be completed within this week,” he said Tuesday. The company offered no estimate of the reserve potential at the Caliskan-1 well, which it started exploring six months ago. TPAO said this is its first discovery of so-called high gravity oil in the region. […]

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Exclusive: With Muslim Brotherhood crushed, Egypt sets sights on Hamas

After crushing the Muslim Brotherhood at home, Egypt’s military rulers plan to undermine the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which runs the neighboring Gaza Strip, senior Egyptian security officials told Reuters. The aim, which the officials say could take years to pull off, includes working with Hamas’s political rivals Fatah and supporting popular anti-Hamas activities in Gaza, four security and diplomatic officials said. Since it seized power in Egypt last summer, Egypt’s military has squeezed Gaza’s economy by destroying most of the 1,200 tunnels used to smuggle food, cars and weapons to the coastal enclave, which is under an Israeli blockade. Now Cairo is becoming even more ambitious in its drive to eradicate what it says are militant organizations that threaten its national security. Intelligence operatives, with help from Hamas’s political rivals and activists, plan to undermine the credibility of Hamas, which seized control of Gaza in […]

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South Sudan Rebels Seize Oil-Rich State’s Capital Amid Talks

South Sudanese rebels said they captured Malakal, the capital of oil-rich Upper Nile state, as talks aimed at securing a cease-fire in the nation’s four-week-old conflict continued for a second day. Opposition forces loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar seized Malakal today after 72 hours of “heavy fighting,” rebel spokesman Brigadier-General Lul Ruai Koang said in a phone interview. The fighters now plan to recapture Bentiu, capital of neighboring Unity state, “within days,” he said. The rebels lost control of Bentiu on Jan. 10 when government forces advanced on the town. South Sudanese President Salva Kiir ’s spokesman Ateny Wek Ateny said fighting was continuing in Malakal after the rebels “pushed our forces” back to the airport. “It’s not yet clear who’s in control,” he said. Government and rebel negotiators held another round of talks in the Ethiopian capital, Addis Ababa , aimed at ending hostilities that broke […]

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200 fleeing S. Sudan violence die after boat sinks

AP Photo JUBA, South Sudan (AP) — A boat carrying civilians desperately fleeing heavy violence in South Sudan sank while crossing the Nile River, killing some 200 people, a military official said Tuesday, as fighting between rebels and government forces moved closer to the capital. Warfare in the world’s newest state has displaced more than 400,000 people since mid-December, with the front lines constantly shifting as loyalist troops and renegade forces gain and lose territory in battles often waged along ethnic lines. A boat fleeing violence on the Nile carrying mostly women and children sank on Saturday, killing at least 200 people, according to Lt. Col Aguer, the South Sudanese military spokesman. He also said there was fighting about 70 kilometers (45 miles) north of the South Sudanese capital of Juba. Heavy fighting erupted in Malakal, the capital of oil-producing Upper Nile state, which renegade forces briefly held before […]

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South Sudan Army Retakes Key Oil Town

South Sudan’s army retook a strategic oil town Tuesday after a rebel incursion sent thousands fleeing and imperiled crude output in sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest oil producer. "By 4 p.m. the rebels were fleeing Malakal," said South Sudan’s military spokesman, Col. Philip Aguer. The fighting around Malakal, which began on Saturday and continued through Tuesday, caused civilians to abandon their homes and some to join rebel forces, according to Col. Aguer. "They were agitated to come and attack Malakal and take whatever property they can as an incentive," he said. Complicating Malakal’s defense, soldiers at a base outside the town in recent days have defected to join the rebels loyal to former Vice President Riek Machar in their fight against the government led by South Sudan’s President Salva Kiir. Fighting has raged since a political dispute between Messrs. Machar and Kiir last month sparked a conflict between army […]

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Pirate attacks dropped 40 percent since 2011 peak

The seafaring association says that pirate attacks at sea have dropped 40 percent since their peak in 2011 thanks to a huge drop in attacks off Somalia. The International Maritime Bureau says that there were only seven attacks and attempted attacks off Somalia last year, down from 49 in 2012 and 160 in 2011, the epidemic’s peak. The Somalia piracy problem was cracked after armed guards were placed on ships and because of an increase in patrols by international naval forces. The maritime bureau said more than 300 people were taken hostage at sea last year. Indonesia saw the most pirate attacks last year with 106. Nigeria was second with 31. © 2014 The Associated Press . All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed. Learn more about our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use . Latest News Latest Winter […]

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China Dwarfs U.S. in Monetary Stimulus

Move over, Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke. Step aside, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda. Compared with Zhou Xiaochuan, the longtime governor of the People’s Bank of China, they are all lightweights when it comes to monetary stimulus. The latest data released by China on Wednesday shows that the country’s rapid growth in money supply has continued. Mr. Zhou and his colleagues have only begun the difficult and dangerous task of reining it in —– a task that still lies ahead of the United States Federal Reserve as it begins its own gradual taper this year. China’s money supply, broadly measured, has now tripled the money sloshing around its economy since the end of 2006. That dwarfs the indirect effects of quantitative easing in the United States, where the broadly measured money supply rose only 55 percent from 2006 through the end of November. China’s tidal wave […]

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Australia heat wave prompts fire alerts

Australians headed to the beach as temperatures soared South-east Australia has been hit with extreme hot weather, with temperatures of over 40C in some areas, and several bushfire warnings in place. In Victoria state, lightning strikes sparked more than 250 fires on Tuesday night, fire authorities said. A fire ban has been issued across the state. In Melbourne, a tennis player and a ball boy at the Australian Open collapsed in the heat. Temperatures in the city remained above 30C for much of Tuesday night. Country Fire Authority Chief Officer Euan Ferguson said in a statement: "The extreme temperatures [in Victoria] over the coming three days will test fire services and the community… it’s critical we minimise the risk of any fires before Friday." Road tar melting Meanwhile Adelaide, the capital of […]

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Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong

Why EIA, IEA, and Randers’ 2052 Energy Forecasts are Wrong Page added on January 14, 2014 What is correct way to model the future course of energy and the economy? There are clearly huge amounts of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground.  With different approaches, researchers can obtain vastly different indications. I will show that the real issue is most researchers are modeling the wrong limit . Most researchers assume that the limit that they should be concerned with is the amount of oil, coal, and natural gas in the ground. This is the wrong limit . While in theory we will eventually hit this limit, because of the way fossil fuels are integrated into the rest of the economy, we hit financial limits much earlier . These financial limits include lack of investment capital, inability of governments to collect enough taxes to fund their programs, and […]

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North Dakota Oil Boom Seen Adding Costs for Rail Safety

Crude oil shipped by railroad from North Dakota is drawing fresh scrutiny from regulators concerned that the cargo is adding environmental and safety hazards, something that analysts say could raise costs. The U.S. Federal Railroad Administration is investigating whether chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing are corroding rail tank cars and increasing risks. Separately, three pipeline companies including Enbridge Inc. (ENB) warned regulators that North Dakota oil with too much hydrogen sulfide, which is toxic and flammable, was reaching terminals and putting workers at risk. Until last month, safety advocates’ chief worry was spills in derailments. After tank cars blew up July 6 on a train in Quebec , investigators in Canada are considering whether the composition of the crude, which normally doesn’t explode, may have played a role in the accident that killed 47 people. The oil was […]

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Rail Accidents Seen Pushing Obama to Approve Keystone XL

Recent railroad accidents are increasing the chances President Barack Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline from Canada , said Senator John Hoeven , a North Dakota Republican. Hoeven, who supports TransCanada Corp.’s (TRP) proposed link between Alberta’s oil sands and U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, today said the debate is starting to swing back and put “more pressure on him to approve” the pipeline. Accidents like the explosion of a BNSF Railway Co. train hauling oil tanker cars about 25 miles west of Fargo, North Dakota, forcing the evacuation of a nearby town, shows more pipelines are needed to safely carry the rising production of U.S. oil to market, Hoeven said at a breakfast with Bloomberg Government reporters and editors. Related: The State Department is overseeing completion of an environmental assessment of the pipeline. Hoeven, a member of the Energy and Commerce Committee, said agency officials told him in […]

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Ford says more cars are not the answer to cities’ problems

Drivers deserted the big three US brands and their once-popular sport utility vehicles in favour of smaller cars from Asian and European marques ©Getty Drivers deserted the big three US brands and their once-popular sport utility vehicles in favour of smaller cars from Asian and European marques Ford Motor , which pioneered the affordable mass-produced motor car, is looking to play a bigger role in building public transport vehicles or integrating cities’ transport systems as it grapples with the growing challenge of helping people move around the world’s traffic-choked cities. Alan Mulally, Ford’s chief executive, said questions of “personal mobility” and “quality of life” were some of the “most important and exciting developments” around the world and simply providing more and more cars was “not going to work”. Mr Mulally’s comments at a Detroit auto show event offer a rare insight into a senior auto executive’s thinking about the […]

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Recent Derailments Raise Concerns Over North Dakota Crude Traveling by Rail Through Cities

Every day, a train more than a mile long travels alongside a highway in Albany, N.Y., a half-mile from the state capitol building and even closer to houses. Its cargo is crude oil from North Dakota, which federal regulators and railroads fear is more explosive than other oils. In the past year, Albany has become an unlikely hub for the U.S. oil business, taking in shipments by rail and sending them out by ship down the Hudson River to refineries. Now officials there are trying to get up to speed on how to handle a potential oil-train accident, as are their peers from Chicago to Denver to New Orleans. Railroad officials don’t like to talk about it, but oil trains are rumbling through many large cities because of surging output from North Dakota’s Bakken shale. Functioning as pipelines on rails, tanker cars full of oil pass through Detroit, Philadelphia, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple