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Peak Oil: Higher Prices

It is unfortunate, however, that we cannot look at the real problem. Unless we can understand the problem as it really is, it is impossible to find solutions that might actually be helpful. [1]   MIXED MESSAGES   The message behind messages like that one aren’t usually anyone’s first choice for contemplation, planning, or doing. Happier yarns about energy abundance are certainly more appealing. Reality being what it is, however, we continue to ignore that to our longer-term detriment. “Appealing” has a limited lifespan, and when the misleading half-truths are what most citizens hear most of the time, that timer will wind down sooner than we’re prepared for. That is definitely not a good message…. The bottom line is: If we want oil, we are going to need high prices. That’s what peak oil is all about –  progressively higher prices that are […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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US to be world’s biggest oil supplier by 2016

Page added on February 21, 2014 As the US economy continues to grow, experts say it will rely less on the world’s major oil exporters in Africa and the Middle East, regions largely sustained by U.S. imports. According to the International Energy Agency, the economy will grow by 2.8 percent in 2014, higher than the 2.6 percent it previously forecasted. The International Monetary Fund predicts the global economy will grow in the same direction by 3.7 percent. Eventually the U.S. will pull ahead of Saudi Arabia and Russia in oil production, becoming the largest oil supplier in the world by 2016, according to a report by the energy group. An estimated 9.6 million barrels of oil will flow per day in the country, reversing the upward oil import trend that has been ongoing for four decades. But a projected increase in supply doesn’t necessarily mean crude oil prices are […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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WTI Set for Weekly Gain on U.S. Cold; Brent Set to Climb

West Texas Intermediate crude headed for a sixth weekly gain as freezing weather in the U.S. bolstered demand for heating fuels in the world’s biggest oil consumer. Brent is also poised to advance for the week. Futures were little changed in New York and up 2.3 percent this week. Distillate stockpiles , including heating oil and diesel, declined by 339,000 barrels to 112.7 million in the seven days through Feb. 14, the Energy Information Administration reported yesterday. South Sudan is trying to evacuate foreign oil workers from its Upper Nile region after fighting erupted between government forces and rebel fighters. “Following somewhat milder temperatures in the U.S. of late, temperatures are forecast to plummet again next week,” Carsten Fritsch , an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt , said by e-mail. “After that the weather should normalize. Based on fundamentals, prices are too high.” WTI for April delivery dropped […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Gas Stockpiles Slightly Higher Than Expected Last Week

Natural-gas futures retreated from five-year highs Thursday after government data showed that storage levels were slightly higher than expected last week. Natural gas for March delivery settled down 8.5 cents, or 1.4%, at $6.064 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices swung within a 43-cent range and touched fresh five-year highs Thursday as traders digested the report, which showed that stockpiles are higher than anticipated but still at their lowest level for any week in February since 2004. The amount of natural gas in storage fell 250 billion cubic feet in the week ended Feb. 14, roughly in line with analysts’ expectations. It was the first time that stockpiles have fallen by more than 200 bcf for four straight weeks, according to Wood Mackenzie analyst Gabriel Harris. But the U.S. Energy Information Administration also raised the total supply level for the week ended […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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EIA’s International Energy Statistics Update

The EIA has updated their International Energy Statistics with the October data. There were some major revisions in the September data. I only track Crude + Condensate so all figures and graphs are for C+C only. Revisions for September were World, revised down 417 kb/d, Non-OPEC revised down 377 kb/d, Canada revised down 327 kb/d and Brazil revised down 54 kb/d. All other revisions were minor. After revisions World C+C production was up 454 kb/d, Non-OPEC up 469 kb/d, Canada up 338 kb/d,  China up 148 kb/d, Libya up 190 kb/d, Iraq up 150 kb/d, Saudi Arabia was down 300 kb/d and Australia was down 71 kb/d. Lots of other ups and downs but all smaller. World C+C, average through October for 2013 is up 115 kb/d over the average of 2012. Non-OPEC average C+C for 2013 through October is up 825 kb/d […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iran Talks Set Five-Month Plan for Race to Final Nuclear Accord

Iran and world powers set a schedule for five months of negotiations in a race to agree on a definitive nuclear accord before their interim deal expires in July. Government experts from the U.S., the U.K., France , Germany , Russia , China and Iran will try to address the most contentious aspects of Iran’s disputed nuclear activities, said European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton , who leads talks with Iran on behalf of the six. Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif will meet monthly, with the next gathering set for Vienna on March 17. Before that, Ashton will make a first visit to Tehran, Zarif said. Both sides used the talks in the Austrian capital to probe each other’s willingness to compromise. Even so, reaching a comprehensive accord that puts international concerns to rest and is acceptable to Iran is something that both U.S. President […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Libya votes on constitutional assembly

Libyans trickled to the polls on Thursday to elect an assembly to draft a constitution , the paltry turnout reflecting deep political disillusion with the chaos pervading Libya since Muammar Gaddafi’s 42-year rule ended in 2011. Of the one million people who had registered to vote, less than 498,000 cast ballots, the election commission said, a number far lower than the three million who did so before the 2012 parliamentary election. Libyans voted on who should make up the panel to write a new charter that will cover key issues such as Libya’s system of government, the status of ethnic minorities and the role of Islamic law. But live footage from Libyan television cameras in major polling stations across the North African country showed mostly empty rooms. After four hours of polling, election organizers said that turnout for the vote had reached just 18 percent. United Nations’ envoy Tarek Mitri urged Libyans […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Israel has $500M gas deal with Jordan, but wider exports still unclear

Israel has signed its first gas export deal, selling gas worth $500 million to Arab peace partner Jordan, but debate is still unresolved on whether the Jewish state will export the bulk of its gas via undersea pipeline or by tanker as liquefied natural gas. The gas that will go to Jordan, Israel’s eastern neighbor, from the Tamar field in the eastern Mediterranean under the 15-year contract signed Wednesday will be pumped via pipeline to two of the Hashemite kingdom’s chemical companies, Arab Potash and its subsidiary Jordan Bromine, at their facilities on the Dead Sea. Stakeholders in the Tamar field, headed by Noble Energy of Houston, Tex., and its Israeli partners Delek Group and Avner Oil & Gas, signed a 20-year gas supply deal with the Palestinian Authority in January for a planned power station in the West Bank. Technically, the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Nigeria's Boko Haram Threatens Oil Refineries, Muslim Clerics

The fishing town of Bama has been attacked four times in the past two years. Scores of people have been killed and hundreds of houses have been burned to the ground. As reports filtered in Wednesday that gunmen in Bama were once again shooting people and setting homes on fire, Boko Haram released a video statement saying it plans to widen its reach, to attack oil refineries in the south and continue its assault on Muslim clerics that don’t agree with its harsh interpretation of Islamic law. Analysts say Boko Haram’s continued threats and attacks are a sign that the Nigerian government has failed to stop the more than four-year-old insurgency, despite nine months of emergency rule in three northeastern states. Femi Odekunle, a professor of criminology at the University of Abuja, says, "The government must double its efforts with more men and more resources to contain […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Nigeria’s Boko Haram Threatens Oil Refineries, Muslim Clerics

The fishing town of Bama has been attacked four times in the past two years. Scores of people have been killed and hundreds of houses have been burned to the ground. As reports filtered in Wednesday that gunmen in Bama were once again shooting people and setting homes on fire, Boko Haram released a video statement saying it plans to widen its reach, to attack oil refineries in the south and continue its assault on Muslim clerics that don’t agree with its harsh interpretation of Islamic law. Analysts say Boko Haram’s continued threats and attacks are a sign that the Nigerian government has failed to stop the more than four-year-old insurgency, despite nine months of emergency rule in three northeastern states. Femi Odekunle, a professor of criminology at the University of Abuja, says, "The government must double its efforts with more men and more resources to contain […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple