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El Nino Risk Increases as Pacific Gets Warmer: Carbon & Climate

The odds are increasing that an El Nino weather system will form this year, portending drought for Australia and Asia and a warmer winter in the U.S. Northeast. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now says there’s a 65 percent chance the Pacific Ocean warming pattern will develop after August. It put the odds at 52 percent last month. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which expected neutral conditions at the start of the year, says the phenomenon may start as soon as July. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations sees an El Nino at midyear. “We should know more clearly in a month exactly whether this is going to wimp out on us or if it’s really going to take off,” Kevin Trenberth , distinguished senior scientist in the climate analysis section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado , said in an April 14 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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El Nino Risk Increases as Pacific Gets Warmer: Carbon & Climate

The odds are increasing that an El Nino weather system will form this year, portending drought for Australia and Asia and a warmer winter in the U.S. Northeast. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now says there’s a 65 percent chance the Pacific Ocean warming pattern will develop after August. It put the odds at 52 percent last month. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which expected neutral conditions at the start of the year, says the phenomenon may start as soon as July. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations sees an El Nino at midyear. “We should know more clearly in a month exactly whether this is going to wimp out on us or if it’s really going to take off,” Kevin Trenberth , distinguished senior scientist in the climate analysis section of the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado , said in an April 14 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Chevron Richmond Banks on Middle East Oil

Chevron Corp. (CVX) plans to run higher-sulfur Alaskan and Middle Eastern crudes when it completes work at Northern California’s largest refinery in 2016, not the Bakken oil helping spur the U.S. path to energy independence. Chevron’s 245,300-barrel-a-day Richmond refinery is seeking regulatory approval to replace a hydrogen plant and increase capacity at the fluid catalytic cracker’s hydrotreater and sulfur-recovery system. The upgrade will take about two years and could be done as soon as mid-2016 if city officials greenlight the project in June or July, Nicole Barber, a company spokeswoman, said in an interview at the plant yesterday. Richmond imports mostly light, sour crudes from Saudi Arabia , government data show. It will use the same sources after the work, Barber said. The U.S. supplied 86 percent of its own energy needs last year as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, unlocked supplies from shale formations such as […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Study links California drought to global warming

WASHINGTON (AP) — ‘s not done in real time. Now a study is asserting a link between climate change and both the intensifying California drought and the polar vortex blamed for a harsh winter that mercifully has just ended in many places. The Utah State University scientists involved in the study say they hope what they found can help them predict the next big weird winter. Outside scientists, such as Katharine Hayhoe at Texas Tech University, are calling this study promising but not quite proven as it pushes the boundaries in "one of the hottest topics in climate science today." The United States just came out of a two-faced winter – bitter cold and snowy in the Midwest and East, warm and severely dry in the West. The latest U.S. drought monitor says 100 percent of California is in an official drought. The new study blames an unusual "dipole," […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Water picture improves for some California towns

While much of California remains in the grips of extreme drought, spring storms have eased pressure slightly and reduced the number of rural communities considered at risk of running dry. In February, the California Department of Public Health listed 17 mostly rural water systems as having less than two months water supply in storage. But in recent weeks that number has fallen to three as February and March rains improved the water picture slightly. Still, the Sierra Nevada snowpack that provides a third of California’s drinking water is at 32 percent of normal as the state heads toward the dry summer months.

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ukraine gets $11 billion gas bill from Russia

Russian energy company Gazprom said Thursday it sent a bill to its Ukrainian partners for more than $11 billion for taking on less gas than contracted in 2013. Alexander Medvedev , deputy chief executive officer at Gazprom, said Ukrainian energy company Naftogaz took on 455 billion cubic feet of natural gas last year, but was contractually obligated to 1.4 trillion cubic feet. "Gazprom on Wednesday billed Naftogaz of Ukraine $11.38 billion for gas shortfall in 2013 under the take-or-pay contract," the Gazprom deputy said . Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan said earlier this month the government may challenge a 2009 contract between Naftogaz and Ukraine to an international court of arbitration. Gazprom in 2009 cut gas supplies to Ukraine because of contractual disputes. The deal that ended the dispute saddled Ukraine with some of the highest gas bills in the region. European consumers get […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ukraine Still Trying to Find Way to Receive More EU Gas

Ukrainian and Slovak officials Thursday said issues remain with a plan to give Ukraine a new delivery channel for natural gas from the European Union as the country seeks cheaper gas than that being offered by Russia. The officials said they would continue three-way talks Friday and into the weekend in the hope of signing on Monday a memorandum of understanding on the deal. Slovakia is offering Ukraine use of a secondary pipeline with annual capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. But reversing flows in the main Slovak pipeline to allow gas shipments to Ukraine creates legal issues between Slovakia and Russia’s OAO Gazprom , said European Commissioner for Energy Günther Oettinger. Ukraine’s Minister of Energy Yuriy Prodan said legal hurdles can be overcome by negotiations and he reiterated that Ukraine is seeking reverse flows in the main pipeline rather than in the smaller secondary pipeline. New Slovak […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ukraine Says Its Efforts to Regain Control of East Will Go On

Defying warnings from Moscow not to confront pro-Russian militants entrenched in towns across eastern Ukraine, the interim government on Friday threatened to maintain efforts to regain control by force that have so far produced little beyond Russian military drills on Ukraine’s border and heightened alarm about Moscow’s next move. In a posting on Facebook, Interior Minister Arsen Avakov of Ukraine declared on Friday that his country’s military operations in the east — known as “ATO,” meaning Anti-Terrorist Operation — had not been suspended. “There has been no suspension of the ATO in connection to the threat of invasion by Russia’s armed forces,” Mr. Avakov said. “The ATO goes on. The terrorists should be on their guard around the clock. Civilians have nothing to fear.” Despite the minister’s warning, there have been no reports of renewed conflict since Ukrainian forces moved briefly against pro-Russian positions on Thursday […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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10 warnings: Big Oil stocks crash 50% by 2020

Yes, we see 10 early warnings that Big Oil stocks are going to trigger an economic collapse by 2020, maybe 50% as gas prices go through your SUV’s sunroof. A contrarian view? Yes, pump prices already shot up 11% this year. Plus Big Oil cherishes its new role as exporter: Bloomberg’s even predicting the U.S. will “surpass Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s top oil producer by 2015, and be close to energy self-sufficiency in the next two decades, amid booming output.” So why worry? Why contrarian? Because a decade ago the Bush Pentagon predicted that by 2020 “an ancient pattern of desperate, all-out wars over food, water, and energy supplies would emerge” as global “warfare is defining human life.” But, that’s light years away in today’s twitter-brain world where today’s news is so bullish: “100% of economists think yields will rise within six months,” no recession in […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Total SA: Peak Oil Is Catching up to Big Oil

With 2013 in the rearview mirror, peak oil is beginning to create big problems for big oil. Free cash flow is like the canary in the coal mine. Earnings can be massaged with accounting magic, but it is more difficult to massage free cash flow. Total (NYSE: TOT ), along with its fellow big oil brethren, has seen its free cash flow fall significantly in 2013. Now is the time to examine the fundamentals and see just what sort of unique risks and challenges big oil faces. Oil prices are stable, but free cash flow is falling TOT Free Cash Flow (TTM) data by YCharts Sometimes, falling free cash flow is a short-term issue. Such was the case after the 2008 oil crash. Oil prices fell, and as a result free cash flow fell as well. The current downturn is different. Oil prices have remained relatively stable and yet free […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA