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Iraq's House of Cards

With the country collapsing around him, Nouri al-Maliki’s strongman image is a sham. And that’s exactly why he’s so dangerous. There is something truly paradoxical about Iraq’s April 30 parliamentary elections. Although there is near unanimity among observers that the past four years have been disastrous for the country, many are still willing to defend Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s tenure — even going so far as to suggest that there is no one else who is capable of governing the country. However, the sad reality is that — given all the developments of his eight years in office — very few Iraqis are less suitable to be prime minister today than Maliki. Indeed, Maliki’s third term would likely be even more disastrous than his second, leading to a deterioration in security and causing the country to relapse into a new authoritarian era. Maliki’s defenders usually argue that the prime […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Iraq’s House of Cards

With the country collapsing around him, Nouri al-Maliki’s strongman image is a sham. And that’s exactly why he’s so dangerous. There is something truly paradoxical about Iraq’s April 30 parliamentary elections. Although there is near unanimity among observers that the past four years have been disastrous for the country, many are still willing to defend Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s tenure — even going so far as to suggest that there is no one else who is capable of governing the country. However, the sad reality is that — given all the developments of his eight years in office — very few Iraqis are less suitable to be prime minister today than Maliki. Indeed, Maliki’s third term would likely be even more disastrous than his second, leading to a deterioration in security and causing the country to relapse into a new authoritarian era. Maliki’s defenders usually argue that the prime […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Elections unleash political flux in Kurdistan

The upstart Gorran party is likely to take control of key posts, upending the old political order and marking a new era of intra-Kurdish volatility. Iraqi Kurds need a strong showing in the country’s April 30 elections to ensure they retain leverage in Baghdad, but on the streets of the autonomous Kurdistan region, there is little talk of the national scene.When citizens go to the polls, they will also be casting ballots – for the first time in eight years – to determine the leadership of three provincial governments that comprise Kurdistan. The outcome of this vote will likely solidify a massive change in the balance of power among the… This content is for registered users. Please login to continue.If you are not a registered user, you may purchase a subscription or sign up for a free trial .

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Pro-Assad Areas Are Attacked in Syria, Pointing to Election Trouble

More than 50 people were killed in bomb, mortar and rocket attacks in government-controlled areas of Syria on Tuesday, as the international chemical weapons monitoring group declared that it was sending inspectors to the country to investigate suspected use of chlorine gas. The wave of attacks on civilian, mainly pro-government, areas in the capital, Damascus, and in the central city of Homs, came a day after President Bashar al-Assad formally announced plans to run for re-election. Taken together, the day’s events underscored the uncertainties around the elections planned for June 3, which government opponents widely regard as a sham, saying Mr. Assad’s victory is guaranteed. It remains unclear how the vote can be carried out safely amid the war, while insurgents still strike in the heart of government territory and the government bombards insurgent-held areas in major cities like Aleppo on a daily basis. While the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Military Aid for Egyptians Loses Support in the Senate

Senator Patrick J. Leahy, chairman of the Senate subcommittee that oversees foreign aid, said Tuesday that he would not support additional military aid to Egypt in the wake of mass death sentences handed out by Egyptian courts this week, adding significant pressure on the Obama administration to shift course. For months, Senator Rand Paul, Republican of Kentucky, has led a lonely effort to sever American support to one of its most stalwart allies in the Middle East after the military’s overthrow of Egypt’s elected Islamist government. That push appears to be gaining steam. “I’m not prepared to sign off on the delivery of additional aid for the Egyptian military,” Mr. Leahy, a Vermont Democrat, said on the Senate floor. “I’m not prepared to do that until we see convincing evidence the government is committed to the rule of law.” On Monday, an Egyptian court sentenced the top […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Saudi Oil Faces Summer Heat Challenge: Chart of the Day

Saudi Arabia will probably have to sustain production above 10 million barrels a day for the longest period in more than 30 years as it meets the summer surge in domestic demand and compensates for production losses in Libya . The CHART OF THE DAY shows how, over the past half decade, Saudi Arabian crude oil burning for power generation expanded by an average of 500,000 barrels a day in the six months through August as people turned up their air conditioners. A repeat this year would eat up about 5 percent of the kingdom’s current output at a time when Libya, the holder of Africa ’s largest oil reserves, is all but offline. “The summer this year will pose the real challenge, particularly if most Libyan production remains offline,” Robin Mills, the head of consulting at Dubai-based Manaar Energy Consulting and Project Management, said in an interview. To […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Further blow for $50bn Kashagan oil project

The $50bn Kashagan oil project in Kazakhstan is likely to be delayed by two more years while 200km of pipeline is replaced, in a further blow for the companies developing the largest oilfield outside the Middle East. Erbolat Dossayev, Kazakhstan’s minister for economy and budget planning, told the FT that he expected production to start at the end of next year at the earliest – but that it could be delayed until 2016. It is the first public admission by the government that the project will not only fail to produce oil this year but may not resume production until 2016. “It will be two years,” added one industry official. It is a blow for the consortium of companies – including ExxonMobil , Royal Dutch Shell , Total , and CNPC – which have invested some $50bn in the project so far in the hope that it would one […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Giant Kashagan oilfield could be out of production for two years.

It has been reported by overnight that the super-giant  Kashagan oilfield in the northern Caspian sea “will be out of production for at least two years”. The shutdown has been necessitated by leaks of toxic gas from a pipeline, with Quartz reporting that two new pipelines will now be required to replace the two existing oil and gas pipelines.” “As reported in the FT last month , the Kashagan field had already been beset by problems over many years, with production  only beginning on 11 September last year, nearly a decade behind schedule. So far it has only produced at a rate of about 75,000 barrels a day for only one month, as it was shut in again in October shortly after beginning to produce when the problem of toxic-gas leaks first became apparent. The FT’s report had already […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Colombia Warns of Emergency Decree for Pipeline Standoff

A monthlong standoff with a forest-dwelling indigenous group is threatening Colombian oil exports and may force the government to declare a national emergency, Mines and Energy Minister Amylkar Acosta said. Members of Colombia ’s U’wa group are preventing repairs to the Cano Limon-Covenas pipeline following an attack by Marxist rebels March 25, cutting exports by more than 2.5 million barrels, Acosta said. The country’s second biggest pipeline is controlled by state-run Ecopetrol SA. “This almost merits a declaration of emergency by the national government,” Acosta told local radio station Caracol today. “There are reasons of state, and there’s a public interest that takes precedence.” A emergency declaration would give Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos powers to rule by decree for 30 days and potentially overrule standard protocol when dealing with local groups. Royalties from oil, Colombia’s biggest export, are a key source of revenue for the government, currently battling […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year

The US is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely anticipated, according to the world’s leading statistical agencies. The US has been the global leader since overtaking the UK in 1872. Most economists previously thought China would pull ahead in 2019. The figures, compiled by the International Comparison Program hosted by the World Bank, are the most authoritative estimates of what money can buy in different countries and are used by most public and private sector organisations, such as the International Monetary Fund. This is the first time they have been updated since 2005. After extensive research on the prices of goods and services, the ICP concluded that money goes further in poorer countries than it previously thought, prompting it to increase the relative size of emerging market economies. The estimates of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple