Category:

Just How Good Are The EIA’s Predictions?

Folks here know that I like to post charts created from oil production data. But there has been a dearth of data lately. But not to worry, the data should start coming fast and furious later this week.  However in the meantime I decided post a little about what the EIA expects in the future. They published the below comments and chart April 7, 2014. Bold mine. Petroleum & Other Liquids In the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case, crude oil* production rises from 6.5 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2012 to 9.6 MMbbl/d before 2020, a production level not seen since 1970. Tight oil production growth accounts for 81% of this increase, and sees its share of national crude oil production grow from 35% in 2012 to 50% in 2019. In the High Oil and Gas case, U.S. crude oil production reaches 11.3 MMbbl/d in 2019 and reaches 13.3 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Oil prices down after Libyan deal

Oil prices fell Monday after reports that a Libyan militia agreed to reopen some oil terminals, possibly boosting global supplies. Benchmark U.S. crude for May delivery was down 53 cents to $100.61 a barrel at 0915 GMT in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract gained 85 cents to close at $101.14 on Friday. The price has vacillated around $100 per barrel for most of the past month. Brent crude, used to set prices for international varieties of oil, sank 93 cents to $105.78 a barrel on the ICE exchange in London. The official Libyan news agency said the country’s main militia in the east agreed to hand back control of four oil terminals it captured and shut down last summer to demand a share in oil revenues. The shutdown has cost Libya millions of dollars. Under the deal reached late Sunday, the militia would immediately […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

The price of crude oil fell sharply Monday on news that Libyan crude will re-enter the market after a protracted shut-in.

Brent crude for May delivery fell as much as $1.32 to $105.40 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were down 53 cents at $100.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Over the weekend, the Libyan government came to an agreement with other factions in the country that four oil terminals in the east of the country will be gradually re-opened. Two terminals with a combined export capacity of 200,000 barrels per day will open immediately. Commerzbank said that "this solution…falls short of last week’s hope that all oil terminals might be opened within a matter of days." The re-opening of two larger ports is subject to further talks. "We thus expect oil prices to recover during the course of this week," Commerzbank said. Morgan Stanley’s analysts also said that optimism could quickly fade. "We are skeptical of any interim, let alone long-term, agreement. Some […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Oil market awaits evidence of restart of eastern Libyan ports

Oil traders Monday were waiting to see whether a deal struck by Libya’s government and rebels in the east of the country to reopen the Zueitina and Marsa al-Hariga oil ports would be implemented and eastern exports resume. An agreement on reopening the ports, with a combined export capacity of 180,000 b/d, was signed at Zueitina on Sunday, the official Libyan News Agency reported. Front-month Brent crude prices dipped on the news, though traders said Monday they were still waiting for evidence that shipments are actually set to restart. "On the physical side, it’s slightly too early to see any reaction," one trader said Monday. "Certainly it is a step forward if it does flow," he said. Analysts also remain skeptical, especially about whether the truce between the government and protesters would hold. "The news seems fairly credible and is clearly bearish," said SEB […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Iran Can’t Withdraw Much Oil Revenue Under Interim Nuclear Deal

  Iran has been unable to withdraw much of the unfrozen oil revenue it was to receive under a November interim nuclear deal, a possible complication for efforts to end the decadelong standoff over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. The problems were outlined in interviews with nearly a dozen Western and Iranian officials and diplomats, bankers and lawyers with knowledge of the issue. An estimated $100 billion in payments for Iranian oil imports has been locked up in accounts in the importing countries in compliance with U.S. banking sanctions that have been among the most effective in pressuring Iran economically. Only $4.2 billion was to be freed up gradually under the interim deal. One reason Iran is having difficulty tapping the unfrozen revenue is that banks remain fearful they could violate tight U.S. financial sanctions, especially while the outcome of talks on a final nuclear deal remains uncertain. If financial institutions […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

10 killed in insurgent attacks in Iraq

Ten people were killed and nine other wounded in separate violent attacks in Iraq on Sunday, police said. In early hours of the day, unknown gunmen broke into the house of a man in the town of Latifiyah, some 30 km south of the Iraqi capital Baghdad, and stabbed him, his wife and four of his sons to death with knives, an Interior Ministry source said. Latifiyah is part of the restive area, dubbed "Triangle of Death", which is a hotbed of the insurgency against the U.S. troops and Iraqi security forces. The town is one of a cluster of Sunni towns scattered north of Babil’s provincial capital city Hilla, about 100 km south of Baghdad. In Anbar province, a leader of a […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

ISIL jihadists open new front in Baghdad push

An Iraqi man helps his son who is headed to school at the site of a car bomb attack in Baghdad, Iraq, Tuesday, Feb. 18, 2014. A wave of explosions rocked mainly Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad shortly after sunset on Monday, killing and wounding scores of people. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban) Baghdad (AFP) – A powerful jihadist group inspired by Al-Qaeda has opened a new battlefront with Iraqi security forces that could see it try to push into Baghdad, officials and analysts warn. The latest clashes, just weeks before parliamentary elections, raise key questions over the capacity of the army and police to repel militant attacks. Anti-government fighters currently hold all of Fallujah, a town that is just a short drive from Baghdad, and other pockets of territory. The push by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) into the Abu Ghraib area, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Libya Oil Sales to Rise as Rebels Surrender Two Ports

Libyan rebels surrendered control of two oil ports to the government, potentially enabling the OPEC member to triple crude exports this month with an increase of at least 180,000 barrels a day. Brent futures dropped. The self-declared Executive Office for Barqa handed over the oil terminals of Zueitina and Hariga overnight, said Ali Al-Hasy, a spokesman of the group that seeks self rule for the region that is also known as Cyrenaica. An agreement yesterday with the government also provides for the rebels to relinquish the other two ports they control, Es Sider and Ras Lanuf, in two to four weeks, he said. The government confirmed the agreement in a statement on its website. With Africa ’s largest oil reserves, Libya’s oil production slumped by more than 1 million barrels a day in the past year as protests halted oil fields and ports. Brent crude futures, which fell 1.3 […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Speculators Cut Bullish Oil Bets by Most in Nine Months

Fewer than three weeks into spring, oil speculators are already thinking about the summer. Hedge funds and other money managers boosted bullish wagers the most since February, betting that refineries will need to buy more crude to accelerate gasoline output before the peak U.S summer driving season. Fuel supply is already tight, with consumers paying the most at the pump in seven months. U.S. refineries are processing the most oil since January as plants come out of seasonal maintenance, squeezing crude stockpiles for the first time in 11 weeks. Speculative bets on rising prices for West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark grade, are the highest for this time of year since 2006, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. “Refinery runs are up and as long as they are up, it’s mighty hard to get crude to build,” said Tom Finlon, the Jupiter, Florida-based director of Energy Analytics Group LLC. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Libyan militia agrees to give up 4 oil terminals

A key Libyan militia in the east has agreed to hand back control of four oil terminals it captured and shut down last summer in its demand for a share in oil revenues, the official Libyan news agency reported. The seizure and the shutdown of the terminals has cost Libya billions of dollars and escalated a political crisis that has threatened to plunge the country into even greater turmoil, unseen since the 2011 civil war that ousted longtime strongman Moammar Gadhafi. After months of a tense standoff – exacerbated by an attempt by the eastern militia to use a North Korean-flagged tanker to export oil from one of the seized terminals – the state news agency LANA reported that a deal was reached with representatives from eastern Libya late on Sunday. The deal could help bolster the authority of the weak central Libyan government in […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple