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Peak Oil: No “Shock Moments”

There may never be a ‘shock moment’ of peak oil’s arrival; instead, peak oil may continue to play out as a gradual, unplanned transition to a new set of energy and consumption patterns that are less oil dependent, giving rise to social, economic, and ecological impacts that no one can predict with any certainty. [1] A key focus among the several hundred blog posts here has been my expression of concern that we’ve done almost no planning and very little preparation to deal with the consequences and challenges of peak oil. As Dr. Samuel Alexander noted in another of his well-considered reports on the topic, we’re not all going to awaken one morning to the Breaking News that peak oil has arrived. There will be several reasons for the absence of that advisory, not the least of which is that peak oil—insofar as conventional crude oil production is concerned […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Underpinned By Russia-Ukraine Tensions

Crude oil is up and hovering around the $110 mark, still gaining support from the crisis in Ukraine. Brent crude for June delivery was up 40 cents at $109.98 on ICE Futures Europe, while WTI crude for June delivery was up 74 cents at $101.34 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. An escalation of the situation between Russia and Ukraine could lead to a leap in global energy prices, said David Hufton at oil brokerage PVM. "Were Russia to send troops into the Ukraine under the pretext of a peace-keeping role to protect its citizens a red line will have been crossed that not even very cautious European leaders could ignore," he said. "If the situation escalates it threatens to undermine the euro zone’s recovery and deliver a global energy price spike." The risk premium is being capped by plentiful oil supplies. Libya’s gradual return will add to those […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Brent Rebounds From Biggest Loss in 3 Weeks

Brent rebounded from its biggest loss in three weeks as the U.S. said it will toughen sanctions on Russia , the biggest energy exporter, over the Ukraine crisis. West Texas Intermediate rose after a weekly decline. Futures advanced as much as 0.6 percent in London . The U.S. and European Union will announce new sanctions as early as today on Russian companies and individuals close to President Vladimir Putin , officials said. Among those that may be targeted are Igor Sechin , chief executive officer of OAO Rosneft, the country’s biggest oil producer, people familiar with developments said. “The price is being supported by uncertainty as to the breadth and impact of sanctions taken against Russia,” Christopher Bellew , a senior broker at Jefferies Bache Ltd. in London, said by e-mail. “Another important consideration is how Russia might retaliate against sanctions.” Brent for June settlement climbed as much as […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Russia-West tensions pressure stocks, buoy oil prices

World stocks held just off 10-day lows on Monday, pressured by tensions between Russia and the West over Ukraine, although European markets were buoyed by a 15 percent jump in takeover target AstraZeneca. Markets, especially in Asia, also took a hit from signals that Chinese authorities are not likely to support the economy with more stimulus, but the main impetus was coming from developments in Ukraine. Leaders of the Group of Seven (G7) major economies could announce far-reaching sanctions on Russia as early as Monday, extending previous limited measures against some Russian individuals and companies for their role in Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimea region. Heavily-armed pro-Russian separatists, who Kiev and the West believe are backed by the Kremlin, have proclaimed an independent "people’s republic" in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk, while holding several European monitors hostage in nearby Slavyansk. Fears of outright war are weighing […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iraq’s Make Up or Break Up Elections

Two years after the U.S. withdrawal and four years into Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s second term, Iraq is on the brink of breaking apart. The upcoming parliamentary elections scheduled for April 30, and the political process of government formation that will follow, present an opportunity to push for a return to more inclusive politics in Iraq. Unless Maliki is replaced or drastically changes his policies, these might be the last elections in a nominally united Iraq. Maliki has used the opportunity of the U.S. departure to consolidate his centralized rule and has alienated both the Kurdish and Sunni communities. Tensions from the ongoing war in Syria have only made matters worse. If Maliki secures a third term and maintains his current policies, the Kurdish region of the north might move toward secession and al-Qa‘ida groups might more firmly consolidate their hold on the western, Sunni parts of Iraq, effectively […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iran, Russia Hold Electricity Talks as Russia Seeks To Build Relationship

Iran held talks with Russia over $10 billion worth of electricity deals on Sunday, in the latest attempt by Moscow to leverage a privileged relationship with Tehran. Russia is already in talks with Iran to swap food and other goods for Iranian oil. The move is seen by some as a Russian attempt to take positions in Iran’s vast market when it opens up and assert its international clout amid increased tensions with the West. In a statement posted on its website, Iran’s energy ministry said Energy Minister Hamid Chitchian met his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak in Tehran on Sunday to discuss $10 billion worth of power deals. They included the construction of hydroelectric power plants and, according to the Mehr news agency, the possibility of Russia exporting 500 megawatts of electricity to Iran. Iran’s political allies Russia and China have renewed efforts to develop economic ties with Tehran […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iraq attacks kill at least 9 as police, army vote

Iraqi officials say suicide bombers have targeted polling centers as soldiers and security forces cast ballots ahead of parliamentary elections. The attacks killed at least nine people. Police say in one of the attacks on Monday, in the northern city of Tuz Khormato, the bomber blew himself up at a checkpoint leading to the polling center. Interior Ministry spokesman Saad Maan Ibrahim says another bomber struck a polling center in Baghdad’s western Mansour area, killing three troops and wounding four. A police officer says five security forces were wounded in another suicide attack, in the northern city of Mosul. He spoke on condition of anonymity as he was not authorized to talk to media.

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Egyptian court seeks death sentence for Brotherhood leader, 682 supporters

An Egyptian court handed down a death sentence on the leader of the Muslim Brotherhood and 682 supporters, intensifying a crackdown on the movement that could trigger protests and political violence ahead of an election next month. A death penalty for Mohamed Badie, the Brotherhood’s general guide, will infuriate members of the Brotherhood which has been the target of raids, arrests and bans since President Mohamed Mursi was forced from power by the military in July. The movement says it is committed to peaceful activism. But some Brotherhood members fear pressure from security forces and the courts could drive some young members to violence against the movement’s old enemy the Egyptian state. In a separate case, the court handed down a final capital punishment ruling for 37 others. The 37 death sentences were part of a final judgment on 529 Muslim Brotherhood supporters who were […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Forced to Flee Radiation, Fearful Japanese Villagers Are Reluctant to Return

Ever since they were forced to evacuate during the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant three years ago, Kim Eunja and her husband have refused to return to their hilltop home amid the majestic mountains of this rural village for fear of radiation. But now they say they may have no choice. After a nearly $250 million radiation cleanup here, the central government this month declared Miyakoji the first community within a 12-mile evacuation zone around the plant to be reopened to residents. The decision will bring an end to the monthly stipends from the plant’s operator that have allowed Ms. Kim to relocate to an apartment in a city an hour away. “The government and the media say the radiation has been cleaned up, but it’s all lies,” said Ms. Kim, 55, who is from South Korea, and who with her Japanese husband runs […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Nigeria: Refineries – Why Nothing Worked

Some fifty-six years ago, Nigeria’s first barrel of crude oil made its uncertain entry into the global oil market. It was largely an event unnoticed. But with it, Nigeria put a knife to the string that bound it to the stake of poverty. It took a leap into that very desirable and rarefied realm of the dollar, petrodollar. The country’s vast forests of cocoa and palm trees, its pyramids of groundnuts rising like sculptured mountains into the sky and its extensive fields of cotton began their retreat as the wheels of fortune, oil fortune, rumbled on carrying Nigeria into the comity of nations blessed by God. Among the more than 40 countries on the face of the earth endowed with crude oil, there is none that does not have its refineries. Whereas Venezuela, a country the size of Lagos State in Nigeria and the ninth largest exporter of crude […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple