In the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014) Reference case, crude oil production rises from 6.5 million barrels per day (MMbbl/d) in 2012 to 9.6 MMbbl/d before 2020, a production level not seen since 1970. Tight oil production growth accounts for 81% of this increase, and sees its share of national crude oil production grow from 35% in 2012 to 50% in 2019. In the High Oil and Gas case, U.S. crude oil production reaches 11.3 MMbbl/d in 2019 and reaches 13.3 MMbbl/d in the mid-2030s. Under the Reference case, the import share of U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuels falls to about 25% during the last half of the current decade before rising again to 32% by 2040. In comparison, the High Oil and Gas Resource case projects that net U.S. oil imports will continue to decline through the mid-2030s and remain at or near zero between 2035 and […]