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Charles Hall “Peak oil, declining EROI and the probability of degrowth”

Second Conference on Economic Degrowth for Ecological Sustainability and Social Equity March 26-29th 2010, Barcelona Peak oil is not some fuzzy academic concern but a reality: for the US in 1970, for some 60 of 80 oil-producing countries and, at least for the moment, for the world since about 2005. In addition the net energy delivered to society (as opposed to the total) is declining in recent decades from 30 or more to one to ten or less to one as we have exhausted our largest, shallowest, closest to shore and highest quality oil and gas fields. While technological improvements have slowed the effects of depletion the net effects are that there is a declining EROI (Energy Return on Energy [and money] Invested). Most alternatives to oil and gas except hydroelectric or coal have a small or very small EROI, and even for these the highest EROI sites in […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Explaining Peak Oil

Peak oil is seen by many oil experts and economists as a major threat to the stability of the global economy and social structure. In 1956, M King Hubbert developed models that correctly foretold that between 1965 -70 oil production in the United States of America would reach a peak and then decline. This model known, as Hubbert’s Peak has proved to be acceptably accurate in forecasting the rise and fall in production for oil-fields both regionally and nationally. The reliance of western economies on oil Most of the important component activities of an industrialised nation such as the UK are dependent on the use of oil. For example, most forms of mechanical transport rely on oil for fuel or lubrication. Therefore, what is produced in factories or farms and then sent to the marketplace uses oil for transportation and probably in some stage of the production. Even the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Brent Crude Rebounds

Brent oil futures rebounded in Asian trading hours Tuesday. U.S. financial markets return from Memorial Day weekend later today. On the New York Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July traded at $104.48 a barrel at 0526 GMT–up $0.13 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.40 to $110.72 a barrel. Ukraine and Russia indicated they are willing to talk but fighting flared Monday between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists. Analysts said the potential for further conflict remains. Oil markets will be tracking U.S. oil stocks data for indications of stronger demand with the onset of the summer driving season. Inventory reports will be delayed by a day owing to the long weekend. Bernstein Research remains positive in its long-term oil-price forecasts and expects flattish prices over the next two-years followed by a steeper increase in the second half […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Brent Rises From 4-Day Low as Ukraine Tension Flares; WTI Steady

Brent crude rebounded from the lowest price in four days amid speculation that renewed tension between Ukraine and Russia may threaten Europe’s energy supplies. West Texas Intermediate was steady. Futures rose as much as 0.4 percent in London . President-elect Petro Poroshenko set Ukraine on a collision course with Russia even before the last vote had been counted, vowing to step up operations to rein in separatists in the country’s east. Consumer confidence in the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer, probably rebounded in May while services expanded at a reduced pace, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before separate reports today. “Some geopolitical tension over Ukraine has crept back into the market,” Victor Shum, a vice president at IHS Energy Insight, a consultant, said by phone from Singapore today. “The situation has no immediate impact on oil supply but it affects the geopolitical tone in the market.” […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Where are Natural Gas prices headed?

Having spent more than 25 years in the oil and gas industry I have seen my fair share of hydro-carbon price fluctuations. So it has not come as a complete surprise to me that the "shale gas" phenomenon has had such a dramatic impact on North American Natural Gas prices. At the beginning of the 21st century Natural Gas prices were about $4.00/Million BTU and thereafter they rose rapidly to $8-$10/Million BTU in the years 2005-2007. The economic crisis that started in the fall of 2008 coincided with increasing production due to the success of shale gas development which translated into a very rapid decline in Natural Gas prices to just over $2.00/Million BTU in 2012. Since then prices have recovered somewhat to about $4/Million BTU. The low prices since 2008 have resulted in a very predictable decline in the number of drilling rigs exploring for new natural gas […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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EPA Set to Unveil Climate Proposal

The Obama administration will next week unveil a cornerstone of its climate-change initiative with a proposed rule aimed at allowing states to use cap-and-trade systems, renewable energy and other measures to meet aggressive goals for reducing carbon emissions by existing power plants. Energy companies and others affected by the proposal will be watching for key details, including the percentage by which companies and states must reduce carbon emissions, which is expected to be proposed in a range instead of a single number. The baseline year against which those reductions are calculated will also be closely monitored. But the proposal is designed to give states, which will administer the regulations, flexibility to meet the benchmarks, as opposed to placing emissions limits on individual plants, according to people familiar with the Environmental Protection Agency’s work on the rule. Central to the strategy of flexibility: the option to include a cap-and-trade component […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Rivals challenge Iraq PM's election success

Nuri al-Maliki may be in pole position to remain Iraq’s prime minister, but allegations of malpractice during last month’s polls are clouding the prospect of forming a government anytime soon. Key rivals of the premier, from inside and outside his Shiite community, allege irregularities at the polling stations, as well as problems with the transport of ballot boxes and vote counting, potentially delaying the certification of results, or even changing final tallies. Maliki’s bloc emerged from the April 30 vote with by far the most seats in parliament, nearly three times as many as his nearest opponent, though his State of Law alliance fell short of an absolute majority on its own. That means he will need to court support from rival blocs, many of whom have publicly said they will not countenance a third term for a prime minister they allege has consolidated power and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Rivals challenge Iraq PM’s election success

Nuri al-Maliki may be in pole position to remain Iraq’s prime minister, but allegations of malpractice during last month’s polls are clouding the prospect of forming a government anytime soon. Key rivals of the premier, from inside and outside his Shiite community, allege irregularities at the polling stations, as well as problems with the transport of ballot boxes and vote counting, potentially delaying the certification of results, or even changing final tallies. Maliki’s bloc emerged from the April 30 vote with by far the most seats in parliament, nearly three times as many as his nearest opponent, though his State of Law alliance fell short of an absolute majority on its own. That means he will need to court support from rival blocs, many of whom have publicly said they will not countenance a third term for a prime minister they allege has consolidated power and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ecuador to Sign $7B Oil-Refinery Financing Deal With China

After about three years of negotiations, the government of Ecuador is preparing to sign a financing deal with China, valued at about $7 billion, to finance a new oil refinery known as the Refineria del Pacifico, an official said. The $10 billion refinery will process 200,000 barrels of crude oil a day. Thirty percent of the funds needed will come from the project’s partners and the remaining 70% will be financed by a group of Chinese banks headed by the Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. 601398.SH +0.57% An official close to the deal, who asked not to be named, said Friday that the government of Ecuador will sign the financing deal, the first tranche of which will consist of about $2.5 billion and will be disbursed soon. The official said a high-level delegation of officials from China have been finalizing details in Quito, and President Rafael Correa […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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China to take 6 million older vehicles off roads

China’s government plans to take 6 million older, polluting vehicles off the road this year in an effort to revive stalled progress toward cleaning up smog-choked cities. The plan also calls for filling stations in Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities to switch to selling only the cleanest grades of gasoline and diesel, according to a Cabinet statement issued Monday. The order comes after China failed to meet official pollution-reduction goals for 2011-2013, the statement said. It said vehicles registered before 2005 that fail to meet cleaner emissions standards will be "phased out," though it did not say how. It called the country’s environmental situation "extremely grim." China’s major cities are smothered in eye-searing smog. The country has some of the world’s strictest emissions standards, but authorities have refrained from enforcing them until now to avoid forcing older, pollution-belching trucks off the road and hurting small […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple