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Sisi keeps policy vague and democracy off the agenda in Egypt

Abdel Fattah al-Sisi , the army chief acclaimed by Egyptians as saving them from the self-destructively partisan and secretive rule of former president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government in last July’s coup, is coasting towards his coronation in presidential elections next week. Yet, for all the adulation heaped on him, his admirers have had little chance to find out who exactly their putative saviour is and what he stands for – until now. It is not that the former military intelligence chief has been out among his 85m people pressing the flesh. He has not been out campaigning at all. He receives delegations from around the country and grants interviews to selected media outlets, from the penumbra of a well-protected hotel owned by the army, after revealing there have already been two attempts on his life. He emits exhortations, vague pledges and the occasional threatening aside, rather […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Nigeria: Oil Majors Fleece Nigeria With Inflated Project Costs

There is no better demonstration of how Nigerians suffer unduly on account of the padding of project costs by the International Oil Companies, IOCs, operating in the country than in the sudden request by the Nigerian unit of French oil giant, Total for a review of its Ofon 2 project. Total Exploration & Production Nigeria, TEPN, Financial Vanguard reliably gathered, is seeking additional $3.78billion to an existing $2.85billion originally proposed for the project. If approved, this will bring total costs for the project to $6.63billion, representing a whopping 132.6 per cent increase, a development that is giving the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation, NNPC, a majority partner in the Joint Venture, JV, grave concerns. While cost padding is not peculiar to Total, as it cuts across all the multinational operators, this particular review stands out as the price of crude per barrel is being estimated above the $77.5per barrel being […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Russia’s “Holy Grail” Gas Deal With China Now “Only One Digit Away”

We havebetween Russia and China on several occasions, and noted last week how it is expected to be signed this week – pending some final price negotiations . It appears that was spot on as Reuters reports, Russian state-run Gazprom said it was still “one digit” away from finalising a 30-year gas supply deal with Beijing which is expected to crown Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to China next week. On the heels of Russia’s de-dollarization meetings , the coming week appears a crucial one for the history books of the US Dollar as reserve currency (or will China leverage Russia’s need to diversify from Europe and stall the deal once again?) As we have discussed in detail , Russia has been in talks with China to supply it with 38 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas a year for more than a decade but the deal has been […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Toasts Turn to Water Cannons in China, Vietnam Sea Spat

The crews from the Vietnamese and Chinese coast guards shook hands and took photos as they met last month, sharing platters of fruit and raising their glasses for a toast. Now, they are in a tense standoff in the South Sea. “The two sides were very happy and united,” Lt. Colonel Phan Duy Cuong, the operations assistant of Vietnam’s Coast Guard Command, said of the April 15 ceremony. “We toasted each other with wine. They went on our boat and we went on theirs.” Ships No. 8003 and 2007 sailed alongside two Chinese coast guard vessels for three days in the Gulf of Tonkin. A month later, at least one of those Chinese boats has been spotted helping guard an oil rig that Vietnam is demanding be removed from contested waters about 140 miles (225 kilometers) off its coast, according to Cuong. The dispute over the rig near the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Vietnam Moves to Quell New Anti-China Protests

Vietnam deployed security forces and quelled renewed protests against China on Sunday amid escalating tensions between the two nations after a territorial dispute sparked anti-Chinese rioting across the southeast Asian country. The Chinese government chartered planes and vessels as it evacuated more than 3,000 of its nationals in Vietnam, China’s Xinhua news agency reported Sunday, following riots in recent days that and more than 100 injured. Among those evacuated were 16 critically injured Chinese as well as staff from the China 19th Metallurgical Corp. who were building an iron and steel complex in Vietnam’s Ha Tinh Province, Xinhua said. Mobs looted and burned their way last week through several of the industrial parks where Chinese and other foreign manufacturers have set up over the past dozen years to take advantage of Vietnam’s low-cost, skilled workforce. The rioting was initially a response to China’s deployment of an oil rig in […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Beijing Presses Vietnam After Anti-Chinese Riots

China’s police chief, Guo Shengkun, urged his Vietnamese counterpart to do a better job of protecting Chinese nationals and companies from anti-Chinese protests , Xinhua, the Chinese state news agency reported. In the Saturday phone call, Mr. Guo told Tran Dai Quang, Vietnam’s minister of public security, that the Vietnamese side bears what Xinhua called an "unshirkable responsibility" for the situation. Mobs looted and in industrial estates in Vietnam this past week, set off initially by anger at China’s claimed by Vietnam. China said Friday that two of its citizens died in the rioting. "China’s Ministry of Public Security is very much shocked and indignant at the violence," Xinhua quoted Mr. Guo as telling Mr. Tran. Mr. Guo added that China was dissatisfied with Vietnam’s response to the violence, Xinhua said. According to Xinhua, Mr. Tran said Vietnam had dispatched large police forces to the areas affected and had […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Modi victory in Indian elections seen positive for oil, gas sector

The Bharatiya Janata Party’s decisive win in India’s general elections should see key reforms in the oil and gas sector pushed through and could end years of under-investment in the country’s exploration sector. As a first step, analysts expect the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to swiftly raise natural gas prices — which would promote offshore investment — and deregulate diesel prices to cut the government’s subsidy burden. "The oil and gas space in India is ripe for reform, in our view," Credit Suisse said in a recent report. "Many measures have already been implemented, and a strong new government at the center can potentially continue and complete the reform process," the bank said. Analysts at Bernstein Research echoed a similar sentiment, saying that they expected a Modi election win to be positive for the oil and gas sector. "After stalling […]

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California governor links wildfires to climate change

Jerry Brown says his drought-striken state is on the ‘front lines’ of climate change that is making its weather hotter California Gov. Jerry Brown is linking the recent wildfires that blazed through San Diego County to global warming, saying on Sunday that the state is on the "front lines" of climate change that is making its weather hotter. Almost a dozen fires caused more than $20 million in damage last week and Brown said the drought-stricken state is preparing for its worst-ever wildfire season. "We’re going to deal with nature as best we can, but humanity is on a collision course with nature," Brown said on ABC. The California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection has responded to more than 1,500 fires this year, compared to about 800 in an average year and the state firefighting agency went to peak staffing in the first week of April, instead of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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US entering oil export market may faze supply

Signals from Washington are getting clear. A new variable – the US crude – may soon be entering and indeed impacting the global crude markets. The US government is reportedly considering doing away with a four-decade-old law that bans the sale and export of American oil abroad. The ban was put in place in reaction to the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973. Today the US is producing 10 percent of global crude oil supply, but exports precisely zero barrels because of the ban. Things have definitely changed. Net oil imports have already fallen to about 5 million barrels a day from a peak of almost 13 million barrels in 2006. Some say, the US may altogether stop importing oil by 2037 as abundant domestic crude supplies, including North Dakota’s Bakken field and Texas’ Eagle Ford formation, may push production to the level of consumption, according to the US government. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Giants Set Their Sights on Arctic Waters

Shell stirred controversy with its 2012 drilling program in the Chukchi Sea off northwest Alaska, the first there in more than two decades. Big oil is eager for another crack at drilling in the oil- and gas-rich Arctic offshore. But that renewed interest comes amid intense scrutiny in the aftermath of the Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010. Encouraged by higher crude prices, better technology and steep costs that pose barriers to entry for all but the deepest pockets, heavyweights such as PLC, Chevron Corp. , ConocoPhillips , Exxon Mobil Corp. and Royal Dutch Shell PLC have spent billions of dollars to snap up offshore Arctic leases. The Arctic holds about one-third of the world’s untapped natural gas and 13% of as yet undiscovered crude, or roughly 90 billion barrels of oil, and more than three-quarters of those deposits are offshore, according to U.S. Geological […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple