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US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts

US shale boom is over, energy revolution needed to avert blackouts I hate to say I told you so, but… In 2012, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that the US would outpace Saudi Arabia in oil production thanks to the shale boom by 2020, becoming a net exporter by 2030. The forecast was seen by many as decisive evidence of the renewal of the oil age, while informed detractors were at best ignored, at worst ridiculed. Among my many reports exposing the geological and economic fallacies behind the shale boom narrative are this , this , this and this . Even here on the Guardian, one headline declared the IEA report shows that “ peak oil idea has gone up in flames .” But the IEA’s latest assessment has proved the detractors right all along. The agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook released this week says that US tight […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Dr. Morris Adelman And Peak Oil Theory

Several weeks ago, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) made big news by severely reducing its estimate of recoverable oil from California’s huge Monterey Shale formation.  This change in calculation by some guys sitting at desks in Washington DC led to a very predictable series of misleading stories with sensationalized headlines like this one from the Los Angeles times, this one from Reuters, and this one from the UK Guardian. The change in calculation also temporarily emboldened the Usual Suspects in the cultish Peak Oil movement, resulting in an array of celebratory Tweets and blog postings at a variety of sites around the web. So why bring this up now?  Well, as I was tooling around the web early this morning, I noted the passing of the famous energy economist Morris Adelman.  Dr. Adelman actually died peacefully at his home in Newton, Mass. on May 8, but the New […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Forecast of oil reserves depletion America

The United States has built a broad economic recovery hopes achieved finally in oil and gas production the Rocky, but these reserves will dry from the third decade of the twenty-first century, to return to dependence on Gulf oil, the International Energy Agency also predicted, she wondered whether the Gulf States are ready to take the job again. The past few years have seen a radical shift in the accounts of the United States with the bravado of its experts to come to the Renaissance oil and achieve a degree of “energy independence” the opposite of the expected downturn. Reviews that went after four decades on the oil boycott led by Saudi Arabic Arabic, that rocked the global power system in 1973, the United States might withdraw “umbrella security” exorbitant cost of Gulf oil. This change has occurred in the United States confidence in prospects for self-sufficiency in energy […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil jumps on China exports, Japan economic growth

Oil prices rose Monday as positive news on exports from China and economic growth in Japan followed last week’s solid jobs report in the U.S. Benchmark U.S. oil for July delivery gained $1.75 to close at $104.41 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That’s the highest closing price since March 3. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils, rose $1.29 to $109.15 a barrel in London. China reported Sunday that exports rose 7 percent in dollar terms in May, up from a 0.9 percent increase in April that followed a slump in February and March. The surge in exports reinforced confidence that the U.S. and European recoveries will drive stronger demand for commodities, including oil. Japan raised its estimate for economic growth in the January-March quarter to 6.7 percent from 5.9 percent, as investment by companies was stronger than first thought. On Friday, U.S. employment figures also […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Futures Extend Gains, WTI Nears $105/bbl

Crude-oil futures extended overnight gains in Asian trading hours Tuesday with the U.S. crude benchmark hovering just below the $105 mark. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in July traded at $104.70 a barrel at 0500 GMT, up $0.29 in the Globex electronic session. July Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.11 to $110.10 a barrel. Nymex WTI crude gained 1.7% overnight, and has been up for two consecutive trading sessions ahead of the inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute, a trade body, due later Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will also publish its short-term energy outlook later Tuesday, while its closely watched inventory survey is due on Wednesday. The downtrend in crude stocks at the Nymex delivery point of Cushing, Oklahoma is the key factor in driving up WTI prices, analyst Tim Evans at Citi […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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WTI-Brent Spread Narrows as U.S. Stockpiles Seen Down

The gap between West Texas Intermediate and Brent narrowed to the least in nearly two months as U.S. crude stockpiles were forecast to fall and Ukraine said peace talks with Russia yielded progress. Futures rose as much as 0.5 percent in New York and Brent was steady in London . U.S. crude stockpiles probably shrank by 1.5 million barrels in the week ended June 6, according to a Bloomberg News survey before data from the Energy Information Administration tomorrow. Two days of peace talks with Russia led to an agreement to implement parts of President Petro Poroshenko’s peace plan, Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement. “No one should be surprised that the WTI-Brent spread is tightening up,” Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB AB in Oslo, said by e-mail. “U.S. oil stocks are now likely to fall every week until mid-August.” WTI for July delivery gained as […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Natural-Gas Prices Drop as Traders Expect Surplus to Grow

Natural gas prices retreated from a one-month high Monday with traders expecting healthy surpluses to help refill low stockpiles later this month. Prices for the front-month July contract settled down 6.5 cents, or 1.4%, to $4.645 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Gas had hit a one-month high before the trading floor opened Monday, but then spent most of the day backing down. Warming long-term weather forecasts weren’t warm enough to support the price going any higher, a broker and analysts said. Without extreme heat to ramp up air conditioners and gas-fueled power consumption, record production is likely going to lead to healthy surpluses this month. That made Monday a good day to sell and take profits from more than two weeks of rising prices, they said. "We’re getting into areas that, until we see some serious heat show up, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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World Needs Record Saudi Oil Supply as OPEC Convenes

OPEC ministers say they will almost certainly leave their oil-production ceiling unchanged when the group meets this week. What really matters for markets is whether Saudi Arabia will respond to global supply shortfalls by pumping a record amount of crude. Just six months ago, energy analysts predicted output from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would climb too high and Saudi Arabia needed to cut to make room for other suppliers. They changed their minds after production from Libya , Iran and Iraq failed to rebound as anticipated, and industrialized nations’ stockpiles fell to the lowest for the time of year since 2008. Saudi Arabia may need to pump a record 11 million barrels a day by December to cover the other member nations, says Energy Aspects Ltd., a consultant. “Now it’s not whether the Saudis will make room, but whether they’ll keep it going and maintain enough spare […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC Struggles to Cope With Libyan Oil Shortfall

The oil terminal of Marsa al-Hariga in eastern Libya, a part of the country where rebel actions have cut off shipments of crude for much of this year. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images LONDON—Six months ago, one of OPEC’s concerns was whether a U.S. shale boom might upend crude markets by providing too much oil. Today, the group of some of the world’s largest producers has a more short-term worry: How to compensate for lost Libyan crude at a time of rising demand and tensions between Russia and the West. "That’s the big question: Who will fill the gap left by Libya?" said one delegate within the group, which meets in Vienna later this week to discuss its output. Members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries—which produces one out of every three barrels of oil consumed daily in the world—are facing calls by some to boost output to help […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Venezuela Oil Minister Says Expects OPEC to Roll Over Production Ceiling

VIENNA–The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to leave its oil-production ceiling unchanged when it meets in Vienna later this week, Venezuela’s oil minister Rafael Ramirez said Monday as he arrived in the Austrian capital. The oil-producers’ cartel meets twice a year to discuss its members’ output and adjust its production according to its view of supply and demand in the market. It has maintained its current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day since 2011. However, analysts expect demand for OPEC’s oil to be higher in the second half of this year, with the International Energy Agency predicting it will average 30.7 million barrels a day. Write to Sarah Kent at [email protected]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple