There has been considerable discussion regarding what price crude would advance to if Iraq were to be taken offline, and no substitution occurred. Using the ETP model we have built the chart below. The left hand column gives the loss in mb/d, the right what the price would advance to if that occurred. Prices may advance over the short term to higher levels, but will settle at the values below. Prices are rounded to the nearest dollar. mb/d loss Pickens two hundred seems wildly high. We have to keep in mind that as price rises from here, those that can deliver spare capacity will, even if they only can short term, to take advantage […]