The standard way to make forecasts of almost anything is to look at recent trends and assume that this trend will continue, at least for the next several years. With world oil production, the trend in oil production looks fairly benign, with the trend slightly upward (Figure 1). Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate oil production, based on EIA data. Figure 1. Quarterly crude and condensate oil production, based on EIA data. If we look at the situation more closely, however, we see that we are dealing with an unstable situation. The top ten crude oil producing countries have a variety of problems (Figure 2). Middle Eastern producers are particularly at risk of instability, thanks to the advances of ISIS and the large number of refugees moving from one country to another. Figure 2. Top ten crude oil and condensate producers during first quarter of 2014, based on EIA […]