Category:

US Forecasters See Below-Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

Federal forecasters on Thursday downgraded their outlook for the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting "below normal" activity with seven to 12 named storms, no more than two of which are expected to reach major hurricane status. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said it was more confident of a below-normal season than when it issued its initial advisory in May, when a "near or below normal" season was predicted. The revised forecast predicts 70 percent chances of a below-normal season, compared to the 50 percent odds issued by NOAA’ forecasters in May. A typical season has 12 named storms, with six hurricanes and three hurricanes reaching major Category 3 status. The six month-long hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. In its new outlook, the agency cited the strengthening of climate conditions that are not favorable to hurricane development, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Ukraine Threatens Oil and Gas Cut-Off in Russia Sanctions

Ukraine threatened to block Russian oil and gas supplies to Europe in new sanctions against Vladimir Putin ’s government, which it blames for a separatist uprising that has ravaged the country’s east. Ukraine, which no longer receives any gas from Russia but acts as a conduit for its neighbor’s European customers, is considering a “complete or partial ban on the transit of all resources” across its territory, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told reporters today in Kiev. It may also ban Russian planes from its airspace and cut defense-industry cooperation. “There’s no doubt that Russia will continue its course — started a decade ago — aimed at banning imports of Ukrainian goods, limiting cooperation with Ukraine, pressure and blackmail,” Yatsenyuk said. “In the most negative scenario for Ukraine, losses during the first year may reach $7 billion, not only because of sanctions but also because of the Kremlin’s aggressive policy.” […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Exxon Drilling Russian Arctic Shows Sanction Lack Bite

Sanctions, what sanctions? Exxon Mobil Corp. will start drilling a $700 million well in the Arctic Ocean tomorrow, Russia’s government said, showing that for all the talk of action against Vladimir Putin ’s oil industry, the largest U.S. energy company is undeterred. As Russia’s relations with Europe and the U.S. deteriorated to the lowest point since the Cold war over the conflict in Ukraine, the European Union imposed a third round of sanctions last week, restricting the export of equipment used for offshore oil production. That doesn’t affect Exxon’s plans because the contract to hire the rig was signed before the measures were announced. Developing the Arctic is vital for Russia, where energy provides half the state’s revenue, to maintain oil production near a post-Soviet high of more than 10 million barrels a day. For Exxon, where output fell to a five-year low in the second quarter, a discovery […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Three Reasons Why Europeans Aren’t Too Worried About Putin’s Energy Power

Has a tit-for-tat spiral begun? After Europe launched tougher sanctions against Russia at the end of July, Russian President Vladimir Putin this week banned food imports from Europe . Some fear this might only be the beginning of a long-term Russian retaliation. Putin eventually could cut energy exports. Many Europeans would then suffer a hard winter. That’s at least the theory. In practice, Europeans—and in particular Germans—aren’t too worried about Putin’s unquestionable energy power. Why? Here are three reasons: 1. Stopping energy exports would severely damage the Russian economy and destabilize Putin’s power. In 2012, the country exported almost $300 billion in oil and gas . These products accounted for about two-thirds of all Russian exports. The country needs the money. Half of the government’s budget depends on income from energy exports. Putin spends the money for everything from maintaining social welfare to keeping up its military […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Oil Higher After U.S. Authorizes Airstrikes in Iraq

Crude-oil futures rose in Asian trade Friday after U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes in Iraq and data showed China’s oil imports in July rose from a month earlier. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at $98.04 a barrel at 0521 GMT, up $0.70 in the Globex electronic session. September Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.96 to $106.40 a barrel. The U.S. has authorized targeted airstrikes in Iraq along with emergency humanitarian assistance in the country’s north. President Obama said the U.S. would act to protect American personnel and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe. "Right now the market reaction is how the market typically reacts when there is headline news on geopolitical tensions. This is traditional behaviour," economist Barnabas Gan at Singapore’s OCBC Bank said. Oil had slumped to a multi-month low in the last […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Crude Rises After Obama Authorizes Air Strikes in Iraq

Crude oil prices rose as U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes in parts of Iraq, OPEC’s second-largest producer, while Chevron Corp. said it was withdrawing some workers. Brent futures advanced as much as 1.3 percent in London and West Texas Intermediate by 1.1 percent in New York. Obama said yesterday that the strikes, if needed, would be used to protect U.S. personnel and Yezidis, a minority sect concentrated in northern Iraq, who have been targeted by militants and are stranded on a mountain. Conflict in the OPEC producer has so far spared production in Iraq’s south, home to about three-quarters of its crude output. “U.S. approval of airstrikes moved the conflict to a new level, and made its extreme potential for danger in the region visible,” Eugen Weinberg , head of commodities research at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt , said by e-mail. Brent for September settlement gained as much […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Natural-Gas Rally Loses Steam as Weather Outlook Cools

Natural-gas prices gave up early gains and slid 1.4% Thursday after midday weather forecast revisions turned uniformly cooler over the next two weeks, slashing expectations for gas-fired electricity demand and knocking out a key driver of the market’s recent rally. Natural gas for September delivery lost 5.7 cents to settle at $3.876 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, ending a three-session winning streak and giving back more than a third of its gains since the start of the month. The market opened higher, building on Wednesday’s close at a two-week high, and continued to rally into the 10:30 a.m. weekly release of U.S. government data on natural-gas inventories. But the market gave back some of those gains after the report’s release and turned solidly negative after the midday revisions to weather outlooks for the coming weeks. "We’re giving back today because […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

A Rogue State Along Two Rivers

How ISIS Came to Control Large Portions of Syria and Iraq The militant group called the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria seemed to surprise many American and Iraqi officials with the recent gains it made in its violent campaign to create a new religious state. But the victories achieved in the past few weeks were built on months of maneuvering along the Tigris and Euphrates Rivers, which define a region known as the cradle of civilization. Cities: ISIS Control Attacked by ISIS The Euphrates The Tigris After establishing footholds in Syria and Anbar Province, ISIS turned to northern Iraq. The swift capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city and a key political, military and commercial hub, gave ISIS a launching pad for a rapid series of attacks in which its fighters seized towns along the Tigris River heading south to Baghdad. Additional reporting by TIM ARANGO, MIKE BOSTOCK, C.J. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Kurdish oil installations safe, Gulf Keystone says

Gulf Keystone Petroleum said Thursday its operations in the Kurdish north of Iraq are safe, though precautionary measures are in place. Gulf Keystone is one of the premier oil producers in the Kurdish north of Iraq. The company in June said production from the Shaikan oil field in the region should be at 40,000 barrels per day by year’s end. Kurdish forces this week responded to incursions from the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, a Sunni-led group that declared an Islamic state over parts of northwestern Iraq. The company, which has headquarters in London, said its Shaikan production facilities are safe and secure. "While there is no immediate threat to any of the company’s operations in the region, we continue to monitor the situation closely and operate with increased security as a precaution," the company said in a statement . Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani said in a […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
Category:

Move Comes as Islamic State Pushes Closer to Iraq's Kurdish Area

U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. said it has cut the numbers of its overseas staff working in the Kurdish region of Iraq as the militant group Islamic State pushed their offensive closer to the area, and amid reports of a car bomb blast in the nearby northern Iraqi city of Kirkuk. Chevron’s move comes as shares in Kurdistan-focused oil producers listed in Europe plunged on Thursday. "We are closely monitoring the situation," a Chevron spokeswoman in London said. "We have reviewed the business critical positions and as a consequence made a reduction in the total numbers of expatriates in the region." Exxon Mobil is also evacuating staff from Kurdistan, Reuters reported Thursday, citing an industry source. A spokesman for the company said it doesn’t comment on security matters. Shares in London-listed Gulf Keystone Petroleum Ltd fell as much as 13%—to their lowest level since 2010—after the Islamic State captured […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple