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Buildup Makes Russia Battle-Ready for Ukraine

WASHINGTON — Russia has roughly doubled the number of its battalions near the Ukrainian border, Western officials said Monday, and could respond to the Kiev government’s gains there by launching a cross-border incursion with little or no warning. Over the past several weeks, Russia has built up 17 battalions — totaling 19,000 to 21,000 troops, according to one Western estimate — into a battle-ready force of infantry, armor, artillery and air defense within a few miles of the border. In addition, it has vastly expanded its firepower, increasing the number of advanced surface-to-air missile units to 14 from eight, and deploying more than 30 artillery batteries, according to the officials. The Kremlin’s intentions in increasing its military abilities remain unclear. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could be seeking to pressure Ukraine and the United States to agree to a political settlement that would grant the eastern provinces of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Germany cancels defence contract with Russia

The Vladivostok warship, a Mistral class…The Vladivostok warship, a Mistral class LHD amphibious vessel ordered by Russia to the STX France shipyard in Saint-Nazaire, western France, leaves for her first trial on March 5, 2014. The Vladivostok warship is one of two navy ships ordered from France by the Russian army and it will take part in a sea trial. AFP PHOTO / FRANK PERRYFRANK PERRY/AFP/Getty Images France is coming under further pressure to cancel its contract with Russia for three Mistral war ships Germany on Monday cancelled a contract to supply Russia with a €120m combat simulation centre, amid an escalating row among European partners about arms sales to Moscow, including France’s €1.2bn warship contract. In Russia the decision by Germany to withdraw authorisation for the three-year contract is expected to accelerate moves to cut dependence on imported military technology, which have already been boosted by last week’s […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Peak oil proponents still dancing around reality

The debate over whether we are running out of oil sometimes resembles the medieval controversy over how many angels could dance on the head of a pin. By redefining the size of the pin and the agility of the angels, today’s “peak oil” proponents have managed to continue the argument. The characters have changed though. Matthew Simmons, author of Twilight in the Desert, casting doubt on Saudi oil production, died in August 2010, and the Oil Drum website closed down last September. New disputants, including economist James Hamilton from the University of California, and Stephen Kopits, the managing director of the consultancy Douglas-Westwood, argue that oil production is limited by geology and is a severe drag on economic growth. These factors will ultimately drive up the oil price if they are right. On the other side of the argument, voices such as the Reuters columnist John Kemp, who states […]

Posted On : Published By : ASPO-USA
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Oil Futures Steady, Brent Trades Near $105/bbl

Crude-oil futures are stable in Asian trade Monday after dropping sharply last week, with Brent holding up around $105 a barrel. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in September traded at $97.98 a barrel at 0541 GMT, up $0.10 in the Globex electronic session. September Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures exchange rose $0.20 to $105.04 a barrel. Nymex crude last week posted its largest one-week percentage decline since the week ended Jan. 3, falling 4.12%, and has been down for four of the past six weeks. Brent crude lost 3.28% last week and has been down for five of the past six weeks. "Although there’s room for the flow of selling to continue, the decline of the past six weeks certainly means that the market has become more conservatively valued, no longer overbought, and with much less of a […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Brent Trades Near Four-Month Low Before Economic Data; WTI Holds

Brent crude traded near the lowest price in four months before economic data from the U.S., the world’s biggest oil consumer. West Texas Intermediate held near a six-month low. Futures were little changed in London and New York today after declining last week. The Markit Economics purchasing managers index for U.S. services is due tomorrow, while factory order data is also scheduled this week. In Iraq , militants seized control of two oil fields and some predominantly Kurdish towns in the north after clashes, according to Northern Oil Co. “Though geopolitical factors show no signs of improvement, markets seem to be turning to economic data and the supply-demand situation for direction,” Michael Poulsen, an analyst at Global Risk Management Ltd. in Middlefart, Denmark , said in a report. The U.S. data “could cause some volatility.” Brent for September settlement rose 13 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $104.97 a barrel […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Bears Bet Right as Futures Retreat to Six-Month Low

Oil speculators bet right on prices after a fire at a refinery supplied by the biggest U.S. crude hub curbed demand and drove futures to a six-month low. Hedge funds and other money managers trimmed their net-long position again in the week through July 29, extending the drop from this year’s peak in June to 22 percent, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 6.8 percent in July, the most in more than two years. CVR Energy Inc. (CVI) shut the Coffeyville refinery in Kansas after a fire July 29, reducing purchases from Cushing, Oklahoma , the delivery point for New York futures. Refiners cut back operating rates as gasoline demand dropped and fuel stockpiles increased. “Coffeyville strikes right at the heart of Cushing and it’s going to have an outsized impact on Cushing inventories,” said John Kilduff , a partner at Again Capital […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Peshmerga in Ceasefire with IS South of Kirkuk at Tribal Behest

Kurdish Peshmerga forces have declared a three-day unilateral ceasefire south of Kirkuk after a demand by Arab tribal chiefs in the area. Peshmerga military officials in the town of Daquq told Rudaw that Arab tribes had asked for the ceasefire – that started Saturday evening —  to give them a chance to try and persuade Islamic State (IS/ISIS) militants to leave the area. The tribes fear that a resumption of fighting between the Peshmerga and IS would cut off the Kirkuk-Tuz Khurmatu highway and affect many ethnically-mixed villages that lie in the frontlines. Meanwhile, Kurdish commanders said they fear that the Islamic militants might use the truce to regroup and bring in reinforcements from elsewhere. Until now the Sunni militants, who have declared an Islamic State straddling large parts of Iraq and portions of Syria, had locked in sporadic clashes with […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Sunni Extremists in Iraq Seize 3 Towns From Kurds and Threaten Major Dam

Sunni extremists seized control of three towns in northern Iraq on Sunday after fierce battles with Kurdish security forces, sending thousands of people fleeing to the nearby mountains and threatening the country’s largest dam. In the darkness of Sunday morning, the Sunni fighters swept in to take one of the towns, Sinjar, and set about their method of conquest, which is as familiar as it is brutal: They destroyed a Shiite shrine, executed resisters, overran local security forces and hoisted the black flag of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, above government buildings. Hours later, as the militants demanded that the city’s residents swear allegiance to ISIS or be killed, the group’s social media campaign was underway, with photos posted online showing militants patrolling the city. The United Nations representative in Baghdad, Nickolay Mladenov, issued a statement on Sunday, citing reports he had that […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iraq's Yazidi minority flees militant threat

Tens of thousands from Iraq’s minority Yazidi community have fled their homes after Sunni militants captured their towns in the latest offensive to expand the territory of their self-styled caliphate. As Kurdish fighters struggled to hold back the onslaught of the Islamic State militants on Iraq’s north, some 40,000 Yazidis, a minority religious sect, fled the northern towns of Sinjar and Zumar, said Jawhar Ali Begg, a spokesman for the community. "Thousands of Yazidi people have been killed," he said. The militant group gave the Yazidis, who follow an ancient religion with links to Zoroastrianism, an ultimatum to convert to Islam, pay a tax or face death, Begg added. Iraq is facing its worst crisis since the 2006 civil war when the Islamic State group, an al-Qaida breakaway faction with a strong presence in Syria, captured large swaths of land in the country’s west and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iraq’s Yazidi minority flees militant threat

Tens of thousands from Iraq’s minority Yazidi community have fled their homes after Sunni militants captured their towns in the latest offensive to expand the territory of their self-styled caliphate. As Kurdish fighters struggled to hold back the onslaught of the Islamic State militants on Iraq’s north, some 40,000 Yazidis, a minority religious sect, fled the northern towns of Sinjar and Zumar, said Jawhar Ali Begg, a spokesman for the community. "Thousands of Yazidi people have been killed," he said. The militant group gave the Yazidis, who follow an ancient religion with links to Zoroastrianism, an ultimatum to convert to Islam, pay a tax or face death, Begg added. Iraq is facing its worst crisis since the 2006 civil war when the Islamic State group, an al-Qaida breakaway faction with a strong presence in Syria, captured large swaths of land in the country’s west and […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple