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EIA’s forecast of 2014 gasoline use has risen 2 billion gallons (1.6%) in past 10 months

EIA’s short-term forecasts of gasoline consumption, which cover the current and upcoming calendar year, have risen over the past year. The latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), released yesterday, expects 2014 gasoline consumption to be 8.82 million barrels per day (135.2 billion gallons), 0.13 million barrels per day (2 billion gallons) higher than last November’s forecast, which was close to the average 2014 consumption forecast across the 12 editions of STEO published in 2013. The STEO gasoline consumption estimates include the volumes of ethanol contained in all gasoline-ethanol mixtures, including both E10 and higher blends. As shown in the graph above, the STEO forecast of 2014 gasoline consumption was generally declining between January 2013 and September 2013, but has risen over the past year. The STEO estimates are used by industry as an indicator of market conditions and provide the starting point for EIA’s longer term projections. The latest available […]

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IEA Cuts Oil-Demand Estimates as Saudi Exports Drop to 2011 Low

The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecasts for 2015 and said Saudi Arabia exported the least in almost three years amid slowing purchases from China and Europe . Global demand will increase by 1.2 million barrels a day, or 1.3 percent, to 93.8 million barrels a day next year, the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in a report today. The expansion is 165,000 barrels less than it predicted a month ago. Second-quarter growth in consumption slid to a 2 1/2 year low, spurring Saudi Arabia to export the least since September 2011. “The recent slowdown in demand growth is nothing short of remarkable,” the IEA said. “While demand growth is still expected to gain momentum, the expected pace of recovery is now looking somewhat more subdued.” Brent crude futures slipped below $100 a barrel this week for the first time in 14 months amid booming […]

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IEA Cuts 2015 Oil Demand Forecasts

The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year calling the recent slowdown "nothing short of remarkable." Agence France-Presse/Getty Images The International Energy Agency Thursday trimmed its forecast for the rise in oil demand this year for the third month in a row , calling the recent slowdown in demand "nothing short of remarkable." In its closely watched monthly oil market report, the Paris-based energy watchdog said it expects global oil demand to grow by 0.9 million barrels a day in 2014, a decrease of 65,000 barrels a day compared with last month’s forecast and down by 300,000 barrels a day since July. According to the IEA, oil demand growth in the second quarter was at its lowest in 2½ years, dented by economic weakness in Europe and China , a trend the agency expects will continue to weigh on demand. "While demand […]

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SAUDI ARABIA

Saudi Arabia is the world’s largest holder of crude oil proved reserves and was the largest exporter of total petroleum liquids in 2013. In 2013, Saudi Arabia was the world’s second-largest petroleum liquids producer behind the United States and was the world’s second-largest crude oil producer behind Russia . Saudi Arabia’s economy remains heavily dependent on petroleum. Petroleum exports accounted for 85% of total Saudi export revenues in 2013, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)’s Annual Statistical Bulletin 2014 . With the largest oil projects nearing completion, Saudi Arabia is expanding its natural gas, refining, petrochemicals, and electric power industries. Saudi Arabia’s oil and natural gas operations are dominated by Saudi Aramco, the national oil and gas company and the world’s largest oil company in terms of production. Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources and the Supreme Council for Petroleum and Minerals have […]

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OPEC Cuts Demand Outlook by Most in 3 Years on U.S. Shale

OPEC reduced forecasts for the amount of crude it will need to supply by the most in at least three years as surging North American shale output reduces reliance on the group’s supplies. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries expects it will need to pump an average of 29.2 million barrels a day of crude next year, 200,000 a day less than it forecast a month ago. The group boosted estimates for supplies from countries outside OPEC by the same amount. The change implies that OPEC’s 12 members would need to cut output by about 1.1 million barrels a day from the 30.3 million they produced in August. Brent crude futures declined below $100 a barrel on Sept. 8 for the first time in 14 months amid constrained global consumption, swelling U.S. output and speculation that threats to supply in Iraq , Libya and Russia are fading. U.S. crude […]

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Saudi Arabia Told OPEC It Cut Oil Output 408k b/d in Aug.

Saudi Arabia , the world’s biggest crude exporter, told OPEC that it cut production by 408,000 barrels a day in August, amid signs of a supply surplus that’s pushed prices to a 16-month low. The kingdom produced 9.6 million barrels a day, compared with 10 million barrels daily in July, it said in a submission to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, according to the group’s monthly oil market report today. Data collected by Bloomberg News show no bigger monthly decline since December 2012. Other estimates collated by OPEC, based on what it calls secondary sources, show the nation cut output by 55,200 barrels to 9.86 million a day. “It does illustrate a desire not to oversupply the market, and it does illustrate they are actively defending $100 a barrel,” Mike Wittner , head of oil market research at Societe Generale SA, said by phone from New York . […]

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Libya’s embattled premier seeks support from UAE

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — The Libyan prime minister has met with leaders of the United Arab Emirates to shore up support for his efforts to form a government after the elected parliament that chose him was forced to flee the capital by Islamist-allied militias over the summer. The UAE state news agency said that Abdullah al-Thinni was in the country Wednesday to discuss the importance of strengthening bilateral relations in a way that serves the joint interests of both countries. The UAE has cracked down hard on Islamist groups domestically and backed regional efforts to crush the Muslim Brotherhood. U.S. officials had suggested that the UAE and Egypt were behind air strikes on Islamist militias in Libya, but al-Thinni told reporters in Abu Dhabi that there was no evidence to support that claim.

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More Libyan crude available, OPEC says

VIENNA, Sept. 10 (UPI) — More barrels of oil on the global market in part because of Libya are keeping oil prices lower, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said. OPEC said in its monthly market report for September crude oil production from the 12 members of the cartel increased by 231,000 barrels per day last month to average 30.35 million bpd. Iraq and Saudi Arabia were the only two member states to post a decline in oil production since the last monthly market report. Libya, meanwhile, posted in the highest gains in terms of percent . Libya in August produced an average 538,000 bpd, a 26.5 percent increase from July and more than twice what it produced in June. "An agreement to open some Libyan ports and resume exports of crude made additional barrels available on the global market and applied downward pressure on light sweet crude oil […]

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New oil found in southern Iraq

KUWAIT CITY, Sept. 10 (UPI) — Kuwait Energy and its Emirati counterpart Dragon Oil announced Wednesday they’ve made their first discovery of oil at a license area in southern Iraq. "This is the first well drilled in our planned high-impact exploration campaign on Block 9, so we are delighted to have made a discovery so quickly," Kuwait Energy Chief Executive Officer Sara Akbar said in a statement. Kuwait Energy holds a 70 percent stake in the Block 9 area in Basra. The company said it produced 2,000 barrels of oil per day during a production test and will continue to appraise the discovery through the end of the year. Dragon Oil CEO Abdul Jaleel al-Khalifa said in a separate statement the discovery in Basra represent the "first significant success" in the company’s portfolio . Iraq is struggling to contain a threat from the Islamic State, a Sunni-led insurgent group […]

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PKK issue complicates Turkey’s role in fight against IS

Turkey Pulse On Sept. 10, US President Barack Obama will outline his administration’s plans for fighting the Islamic State (IS). His secretary of defense,  Chuck Hagel, was in Ankara Sept. 9  to see what role Turkey could take in this US-led coalition of the willing against IS militants in Iraq. Although the Turkish side refrained from making any clear public commitment to this coalition, it agreed to be part of it in principle. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stressed that Turkish officials are worried about a potential backlash that could cost the lives of 49 Turkey’s Mosul consulate hostages held by IS militants since June 11 , and are also concerned about Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) members acquiring more weapons. "The weapons sent [to Iraq] should not end up in the hands of terrorist organizations. They should not end up in the hands of the PKK,"  Cavusoglu said Sept. 9 […]

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