With Brent falling below $90 / barrel, panic seems to be gripping the oil community, from the majors to the frackers. It’s time for a bit of perspective. Start with supply. Libya has added 550 kpbd of supply in just the last three months. That’s a 2 mbpd / year pace, plenty to tank prices without other considerations. That country could still boost production by a similar amount over the next year in the better case (and there are worse cases, too), but once it puts capacity back on line, Libyan production will no longer depress oil prices. On the unconventional side, US shales and Canadian oil sands continue to power overall supply growth. But keep in mind that the US independents were free cash flow negative at $105 WTI, and they’re going to be even more negative at $84 / barrel. If they can’t fill the funding gap, they’re going […]