Analysis points to US production peaking in late April. Oil rig reduction is accelerating. Current two week decline in EIA estimates not too unusual. Canadian rig count down 66% year over year. Current oil rig count 1482. Estimated production breakeven rigs required: 1267. Shale oil wells deplete much faster than traditional wells. This article attempts to determine the number of rigs that need to be deployed in order to neither increase nor decrease the US production of oil. To estimate a ballpark peak date and ballpark breakeven number of rigs in this cycle, one needs to: 1. Estimate the number of barrels that are produced in a given week, given a known number of oil rigs in operation. 2. Estimate the rate of depletion (that is, to estimate the amount of additional depletion expressed as a percentage of peak production as a function of time that occurs as […]