U.S. tight oil production may fall 600,000 barrels per day by June 2015 based on reasonable projections of current rig counts.   I compared the decrease in rig counts that began in late 2014 to the rig count decrease in 2008 and 2009 following the Financial Crisis.  I projected current total rig counts according to three scenarios out to June 5, 2015 shown in the chart below. I then applied those decline rates to rig counts and production in the 4 major tight oil plays: the Bakken, D-J Niobrara, Eagle Ford and Permian basin. Comparison of rig count decrease in 2008-2009 and 2014-2015. Source: Baker Hughes (Click image to enlarge) In 2008-2009, the U.S. rig count dropped from 2,031 to 876 over a period of 283 days. As of February 13, 2015, the rig count has fallen from 1,931 to 1,358 over a period of 151 days.  The current rate […]