The IEA’s latest medium-term oil forecast is a useful update to the thinking behind its current long-term outlook, which predated much of the current price drop. They expect shale output to be relatively resilient and rely on Iraq’s capacity to expand output in spite of significant security risks. When the International Energy Agency issued its most recent long-term energy forecast last November 12th, Brent crude oil traded just above $80 per barrel. At that point it had fallen only half as far as it would by January 2015, compared to its June 2014 high of $115. As a result, the IEA’s assessment of the price drop in its 2015 World Energy Outlook was incomplete, to say the least. The agency’s Medium-Term Oil Market Report , issued in February, provides a necessary update and some interesting insights about how–and how far–they envision the oil market recovering. Anyone expecting the IEA […]