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In Chávez, Maduro Trusts, Maybe to His Detriment and Venezuela’s

CARACAS, Venezuela — He thunders about conspiracies and assassination plots. He says that he sleeps with both eyes open. Few Venezuelans even know where he lives. But no matter the dangers, President Nicolás Maduro says that no one will scare him, fool him or divert him from carrying out the mission that the “eternal Commander Chávez” has given him “until the end of the end of the roads, now and forever.” Mr. Maduro came into office seeking to imitate his charismatic predecessor and mentor, Hugo Chávez , in nearly every way : the way he talked, the way he dressed and in his fulminations against American imperialism. But now, two years after the death of Mr. Chávez, with his country sinking deeper into an economic crisis, what was once Mr. Maduro’s greatest advantage — his absolute loyalty to the late leader — may have become his greatest handicap. “The […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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« ExxonMobil CEO Wrong About “Resilience” of Tight Oil Production

Posted in The Petroleum Truth Report ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson is wrong about the resilience of U.S. tight oil production. “…Mr. Tillerson pointed out that the collapse in natural-gas prices similarly had led the number of rigs drilling for that fuel to drop to 280 from north of 1,600 in 2008. Gas output jumped 50% in that time, he said. That is what you call resilience…While he didn’t see a perfect parallel between shale gas and shale oil, he said there were “lessons” to be learned.” His point is that we should not expect a big drop in U.S. tight oil production just because the rig count is falling. He bases this prediction on what happened with gas production in 2008-2009 and afterward.  That is wrong. The fact that gas production didn’t decrease much in 2008-2009 despite a huge drop in rig count is incorrectly attributed to the high productivity of shale gas wells.  The […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil train fires reveal problematic safety culture: Kemp

LONDON (Reuters) – Two more serious derailments and fires involving trains carrying crude oil in the past week confirm there is a serious problem with the safety culture on North American railroads. The latest fiery derailments occurred in northern Illinois involving a train operated by BNSF and northern Ontario involving a train operated by Canadian National Railway. They come just weeks after serious oil train fires in West Virginia involving a train operated by CSX and another Canadian National derailment in northern Ontario. Fortunately, these derailments occurred in sparsely populated areas, but it is only a matter of time before a train derails in a densely populated urban center and risks a mass casualty incident. The U.S. Department of Transportation predicts more than 200 crude and ethanol carrying trains will derail over the next 20 years, including ten in urban areas. Based on plausible assumptions, at least one of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Fiery Rail Spills Puts Safety Focus on Cutting Oil’s Volatility

(Bloomberg) — A series of rail accidents involving oil tank cars that exceed federal safety standards yet still burst into flames after derailing is shifting the focus from the container to the crude — and whether it’s too explosive to be carried by train. A wreck over the weekend in Canada brought the total to four in less than a month in the U.S. and Canada. All involved relatively modern tank cars known as the CPC-1232, which are designed to be sturdier than a model that regulators have said are prone to rupture. Safety advocates say the spills show that a proposed rule now under review at the White House to require even tougher tank cars is necessary, but that it may not go far enough. “The problem is in the product,” said Phil Steck, a New York state assemblyman whose district near Albany is bisected by oil trains. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Canada under pressure after oil train derailment

The Canadian government faces similar pressure as its U.S. counterparts to do more to ensure oil is carried on railways safely, a lawmaker said. The Transportation Safety Board of Canada dispatched investigators to the site of a derailment of a train carrying crude oil through the village of Gogama in Ontario. The derailment is the second in the region in less than a month. The TSB’s last update was a Saturday announcement the derailment was from a train operated by Canadian National Railway Co. Glenn Thibeault, a member of the Canadian parliament and assistant to the Ontario environment minister, said more is expected from the federal government. The federal government, responsible for rail safety, must do more to protect our communities and the environment pic.twitter.com/XE2dgTn9go — Glenn Thibeault (@GlennThibeault) March 8, 2015 Canadian Transport Minister Lisa Raitt announced new regulations in April aimed at increasing safety on the Canadian […]

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US shale oil output growth grinding to a halt: EIA data

London (Platts)–9Mar2015/420 pm EDT/2020 GMT US shale oil production is expected to see a net gain of just 1,000 b/d in April, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report published Monday. The data shows net production from the Bakken, Eagle Ford and Niobrara shale plays all falling in April — the first time they will have contracted since the EIA started publishing the DPR in November 2013. Only the Permian region will show a significant projected net gain in April, at 21,000 b/d, compared with the February report’s projection for March growth of 30,000 b/d. The DPR uses recent data on the total number of drilling rigs in operation, along with estimates of drilling productivity and estimated changes in production from existing oil and natural gas wells. The projection is based on seven key shale plays — the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Haynesville, Marcellus, Niobrara, Permian […]

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Changes in spot natural gas prices not soon reflected in US consumer prices: EIA

Houston (Platts)–9Mar2015/422 pm EDT/2022 GMT Because of the structure of the US natural gas market, changes in gas spot prices are not immediately felt by consumers at the end of the pipeline, the Energy Information Administration said Monday. "While natural gas wholesale spot prices have dropped to relatively low levels since the end of 2014, these low prices have not translated directly into lower retail prices for consumers who use natural gas to heat their homes and businesses," the EIA said on its website. "This short-term lag is largely due to the nature of utility regulation," EIA said. "Over longer periods, changes in natural gas spot and residential prices are much more closely correlated." EIA economist Katie Teller said Monday that the regulated nature of the gas market distinguishes it from the oil market, where a correlation between commodity prices and end-user prices is more clearly evident. Article continues […]

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The Oil Shock Model with Dispersive Discovery- Simplified

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne The Oil Shock Model was first developed by Webhubbletelescope and is explained in detail in The Oil Conundrum . (Note that this free book takes a while to download as it is over 700 pages long.) The Oil Shock Model with Dispersive Discovery is covered in the first half of the book. I have made a few simplifications to the original model in an attempt to make it easier to understand. Figure 1 In a previous post I explained convolution and its use in modelling oil output in the Bakken/Three Forks and Eagle Ford LTO (light tight oil) fields. Briefly, an average hyperbolic well profile (monthly oil output) is combined with the number of new wells completed each month by means of convolution to find a model of LTO output. In the Oil Shock model the maximum entropy probability distribution is […]

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Outlook for US industrial gas use trimmed

HOUSTON, Mar. 9 03/09/2015 Industrial demand for natural gas in the US will rise to 22.1 bcfd in 2020 from 19.8 bcfd in 2012, according to an updated analysis of projects in progress by the Center for Energy Economics (CEE), Bureau of Economic Geology at the University of Texas at Austin. CEE maintains a database of projects in gas-intensive industries. Its first projection, in June last year, estimated industrial gas demand in 2020 of 23.5 bcfd in the reference case ( OGJ Online, July 7, 2014 ). The reference case includes projects completed, in front-end engineering and design, obtaining permits, under construction, or otherwise in progress. In the update , CEE sees fewer projects completed or in progress during the study period: 83 vs. 103. The biggest change, CEE says, is suspension of Sasol Ltd.’s plans for a gas-to-liquids (GTL) plant at Westlake, La. ( OGJ Online, Jan. 28, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple