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Iran Deal May Cut EIA Oil Price Forecast by as Much as $15

Oil prices could tumble as much as $15 a barrel next year if sanctions are lifted following a final nuclear deal with Iran, according to the Energy Information Administration. Iran and world powers reached a preliminary agreement on April 2 that set the parameters for further negotiations needed to complete a signed, comprehensive agreement by a June 30 deadline. The re-entry of more Iranian barrels could cut the EIA’s price projection by $5 to $15 a barrel, the U.S. Energy Department’s statistical arm said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report Tuesday. “If a comprehensive agreement that results in the lifting of Iranian oil-related sanctions is reached, then this could significantly change the STEO forecast for oil supply, demand, and prices,” the EIA said in the report. “However, the timing and order that sanctions could be suspended is uncertain.” Iran’s full return to the oil market risks delaying a […]

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Iran’s oil exports likely to rise in 2016

LONDON (Reuters) – Beware diplomats bearing fact sheets; they rarely reveal the whole truth. The nuclear negotiations in Lausanne have already produced three separate fact sheets, issued by the United States, Iran and France, each highlighting different aspects of the emerging agreement. But under all three versions, Iran’s oil exports are likely to rise in 2016. The battle of the fact sheets confirms the first rule of analysis: never trust a summary produced by someone else, always go back to the original documents. In this instance, there is no final document setting out all the undertakings by the various parties because there are still significant areas of disagreement. By reading the fact sheets side by side, however, the outlines of an eventual deal between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) are now reasonably clear. The basic bargain allows Iran to […]

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Saudi’s Naimi says ready to help improve oil prices, but not alone

RIYADH (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia’s oil minister Ali al-Naimi said on Tuesday that the kingdom stood ready to "improve" prices but only if other producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) joined the effort. Naimi said Saudi Arabia had pumped around 10.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, marking an increase from previous months. He did not say why output had risen. Naimi also said he expected oil prices that have languished near six-year lows to improve in the near future. Oil prices extended gains late on Tuesday as traders took Naimi’s comments as sign he may be open to renewed talks with producers like Russia and Mexico over curbing production in order to revive prices. U.S. crude rose 3.5 percent to close at $53.98 a barrel, near its highest this year. "The kingdom is still ready to help bring back stability to the […]

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Libya Fight Over Oil Money Complicates Efforts to Boost Exports

Libya’s elected government said it is opening an overseas bank account for crude revenue to bypass rival Islamist authorities in the capital, adding uncertainty to the North African country’s efforts to boost exports. “This measure is meant to ensure liquidity for the government without going through the central bank in Tripoli,” Fathallah Al-Suhaiti, chairman of the elected parliament’s national security and defense committee, said Tuesday by phone from Tobruk in eastern Libya. Libya, holder of Africa’s largest oil reserves, has been split since last year when a coalition of Islamist militias captured Tripoli, forcing the elected government to move to the eastern region. The conflict has damaged or shut oil fields, pipelines and ports, reducing the nation’s crude output to no more than 600,000 barrels a day. Libya pumped almost 1.6 million barrels before the 2011 rebellion that ended Muammar Qaddafi’s 42-year rule. The elected and internationally recognized government […]

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Saudi Arabia Sees Crude Price Rising as It Boosts Oil Production

Ali al-Naimi, Saudi Arabia’s oil minister. Photographer: Vladimir Weiss/Bloomberg Saudi Arabia increased oil production in March to the highest in at least 12 years and expects crude prices to rise in the “near future,” according to oil minister Ali al-Naimi. The kingdom, which led the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last year in refusing to cut output, produced 10.3 million barrels a day last month and will keep pumping for now at around 10 million, al-Naimi said Tuesday at a conference in Riyadh. The March figure is the highest since at least 2002, when the Joint Organisations Data Initiative began compiling output statistics. OPEC will not cut production without cooperation from non-OPEC producers, al-Naimi said. Supply from Saudi Arabia, the biggest in OPEC, has added to a global glut that reduced oil prices by almost half since June. Russia is pumping oil at a rate close to the post-Soviet […]

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Saudi Arabia’s Crude Output at Record High in March

By Summer Said Saudi Arabia raised its crude output to 10.3 million barrels a day in March, its oil minister Ali al-Naimi said, signalling an unexpected strong demand from its customers. Mr. Naimi did not give a reason for the increase in output, according to the official Saudi News Agency. The Kingdom’s previous record peak was 10.2 million barrels a day in August 2013. It told the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it produced 9.64 million barrels a day in February. Mr. Naimi said that the kingdom’s production will continue at around 10 million barrels a day, signalling that his country is determined to ride out the price slide without making any output cut. "In terms of petroleum, I expect that prices will improve in the near future, that the Kingdom’s production will continue at approximately 10 million barrels per day," Mr. Naimi said in a speech […]

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Expedited Weapons Deliveries to Saudi Arabia Signal Deepening U.S. Involvement

Photo The rubble of a house destroyed by an airstrike in Bait Rejal, a village west of the capital, Sana. Credit Khaled Abdullah/Reuters CAIRO — The United States said on Tuesday that it was expediting deliveries of weapons to Saudi Arabia , a sign of the Obama administration’s deepening involvement in the Saudi military offensive against the Houthi movement in Yemen . Speaking to reporters in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, Antony J. Blinken, the deputy secretary of state, said the United States had also increased its intelligence sharing and established a “joint coordination planning cell” with the Saudi government to help its war effort, according to the Reuters news agency. The show of support by the United States came two weeks after the Saudi military launched an air war against the Houthis, members of a rebel movement from northern Yemen that has seized territory and steadily expanded its influence […]

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White House Seeks to Soothe Relations With Venezuela

BOGOTÁ, Colombia — A White House official said Tuesday that Venezuela was not a threat to the national security of the United States, backing off language in an executive order that had inflamed relations with the South American nation and drawn criticism from other countries in the region. The comments came as President Obama prepared to leave for a trip to the Caribbean and Latin America that will include a meeting of heads of state from the hemisphere. “The United States does not believe that Venezuela poses some threat to our national security,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, deputy national security adviser for strategic communications, during a telephone call with reporters to discuss the president’s trip. He was referring to an executive order signed by Mr. Obama last month that called for economic sanctions against seven Venezuelan officials who the United States said were involved in human rights abuses or […]

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Saudi crude output to rise to 9.8 million b/d in 2015: Jadwa Bank

Intense competition in key export markets and higher domestic consumption will drive Saudi Arabia’s average crude oil production to 9.8 million b/d in 2015, according to a forecast by Saudi bank Jadwa Investment. This is up from 9.6 million b/d in its previous forecast in January, Jadwa said in a research note Wednesday. The kingdom’s response to falling crude oil prices since mid-2014 has been to aggressively cut its official selling price to maintain market share. Exports to China and the US, which together accounted for 34% of Saudi’s exports in early 2014, have now fallen to just 26%. Article continues below… Oilgram News brings you fast-breaking global petroleum and gas news on and including: Industry players, upstream and downstream markets, refineries, midstream transportation and financial reports Supply and demand trends, government actions, exploration and technology Daily futures summary Weekly API statistics, and much more "In the US, Saudi’s […]

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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Market Prices and Uncertainty Report This is a regular monthly supplement to the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook . Contact: James Preciado ( [email protected] ) Full Report Crude Oil Prices: After increasing in February, global crude oil prices declined in March. The North Sea Brent front month futures price settled at $54.95/bbl on April 2, a decline of $4.59/bbl since the close on March 2 ( Figure 1 ). The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) front month futures price declined by $0.45/bbl over the same period to settle at $49.14/bbl on April 2. The average Brent price for March was 3.2% lower compared to the average in February, the smallest monthly average change since June 2014. Figure 1: Historical crude oil front month futures prices March was one of the more stable months for international crude oil prices compared to the past half-year. Supply-side developments put downward pressure on crude oil […]

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