Analyst predictions are all over the map The sun rises beyond oil storage tanks at the Enbridge Cushing storage terminal in Cushing, Okla., on March 25. The plunge in the price of oil has created chaos in the forecasting business. Energy analysts are more divided in their outlook than at any time in at least eight years.
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – Oil futures fell on Thursday, retreating from big gains in the previous session, as the prospect that any deal in nuclear talks with Tehran and a possible increase in its crude exports helped to keep pressure on prices. Major powers and Iran have stretched talks on Tehran’s nuclear program into a second day past an end-March deadline, with diplomats saying the chances for a preliminary deal were balanced between success and collapse. Both Brent and U.S crude prices snapped three-session losing streaks on Wednesday, gaining $2 or more after data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed a fall in rigs drilling for oil resulted in a drop in U.S. output last week for the first time since late-December. Brent crude for May delivery LCOc1 was down 46 cents at $56.64 a barrel by 3.06 a.m. ET. The contract had settled $1.99 higher on Wednesday. U.S. […]
The NYMEX May natural gas futures contract rose 10.8 cents to close at $2.713/MMBtu Thursday as the market responded positively to a US Energy Information Administration storage draw that came in above expectations. US natural gas in storage fell 18 Bcf to 1.461 Tcf for the week ended March 27, the EIA said Thursday, above consensus expectations of a withdrawal between 8 Bcf and 12 Bcf. EIA in the corresponding week last year reported a 71-Bcf draw, while the five-year average is a 22-Bcf withdrawal. Tim Evans, energy futures specialist at Citi Futures, said the 18-Bcf net withdrawal was "bullish relative to expectations but more neutral in seasonally adjusted economic terms." It also suggests that the market’s supply-demand balance may be "a little bit tighter" than previously believed. However, given the current temperature forecast and the expected drop-off in heating demand, Evans said the "downside for prices remains open" […]
Dow Jones Newswires By Timothy Puko Natural gas prices sharply added to gains on Thursday after stockpiles shrank by double what analysts expected. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said storage levels fell by 18 billion cubic feet in the week ended March 27. That is 9 bcf more than the 9-bcf consensus average of 18 forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. The EIA update is widely considered one of the best measures of supply and demand. This draw would indicate lower supply or larger demand than expected. It is nearly on par with the 22-bcf five-year average for the week, which may be considered a surprise bullish for prices, which have been capped by near-record supply. The front-month May contract recently traded up 6.8 cents, or 2.6%, at $2.673 a million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices had been trading near their lows from […]
Photo News that the framework of a nuclear accord had been reached led to celebration early Friday in Parkway Square in Tehran. Credit Newsha Tavakolian for The New York Times TEHRAN — Even after learning about a politically seismic event — a nuclear agreement that could augur an end to the era of sanctions and shouts of “Death to America” — many Iranians appeared reluctant to express happiness or even react to what was, for most people, heartening news. “We have been disappointed so many times, I can’t really believe there might be an end to this,” said Mohammad Reza, 21. The streets of Tehran, a city of 12 million, crowded on any regular evening, were largely empty late Thursday night, save for some gatherings at a central square where people honked their car horns in approval. But that may have been partly because many Iranians were glued to […]
Iran and six world powers agreed on parameters of a deal meant to block Tehran from developing nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of tough Western sanctions. U.S. President Barack Obama called it a “historic understanding” between two estranged nations after the outlines of a deal were announced Thursday in Lausanne, Switzerland. But he hinted at its fragility, saying the success of a final accord is far from guaranteed. “I am convinced that if this framework leads to a final, comprehensive deal, it will make our country, our allies, and our world safer. This has been a long time coming,” Mr. Obama said. “It is a good deal, a deal that meets our core objectives.” He said the deal, if completed, would block any pathway for Iran to acquire a nuclear bomb and argued the only real alternative to continued diplomacy is war. Negotiators would start drafting an […]
The United States, Iran and five other world powers announced a deal Thursday outlining limits on Iran’s nuclear program so it cannot lead to atomic weapons. Negotiators now have to take that deal and shape it into a final accord by June 30. The agreement says that "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed." — Below are the key parameters of a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) regarding the Islamic Republic of Iran’s nuclear program that were decided in Lausanne, Switzerland. These elements form the foundation upon which the final text of the JCPOA will be written between now and June 30, and reflect the significant progress that has been made in discussions between the P5+1, the European Union, and Iran. Important implementation details are still subject to negotiation, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. We will work to conclude the JCPOA based on these parameters […]
Iran and six world powers have agreed on parameters of a deal meant to block Tehran from developing nuclear weapons. Why is “breakout” time so significant and how is it calculated? WSJ’s Jason Bellini has #TheShortAnswer. Top Obama administration officials entered negotiations with Iran in September 2013 hoping to dismantle most of the country’s nuclear infrastructure—but carrying gnawing doubts such an outcome was possible. Those concerns were quickly confirmed when U.S. and Iranian diplomats sat down for their first formal meeting the following month at the United Nations offices near the shores of Lake Geneva. Iranian negotiators made clear that a dismantling of their facilities, including eliminating tens of thousands of centrifuge machines, a plutonium-producing reactor and an underground fuel-production site, wasn’t feasible, senior U.S. officials said. “It’s our moon shot,” Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a U.S. official at one point, arguing that the program’s economic and […]
Eighteen months after picking up the phone to Barack Obama with an historic message of reconciliation, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has secured the outline nuclear agreement he expects to end his country’s isolation. Succeeding where two Iranian presidents before him failed, Rouhani’s envoys on Thursday struck an accord with world powers that limits Iran’s nuclear work in exchange for eventual relief from punishing sanctions. Diplomats, who hours earlier had appeared worn out and doubtful of the prospects, now have three months to hammer out the details of a final pact and complete the job. The deal comes as welcome news to Iranians fed up with years of stagnation, rising prices and few jobs. Rouhani’s political opponents, who dominate parliament and see his agenda as a challenge to the tenets of the Islamic revolution and the nation’s sovereignty, will likely regroup and come out fighting. Rouhani “based his electoral campaign […]
WASHINGTON/NEW YORK (Reuters) – A framework accord to curb Iran’s nuclear program forged on Thursday could eventually allow Tehran to reclaim lost ground in the global oil market. Yet the deal all but guarantees that cannot happen before next year. By ensuring that sanctions remain intact until Western powers are satisfied Tehran is adhering to the terms, and giving negotiators until June 30 to hammer out a comprehensive agreement, the deal offers little chance for any significant increase in exports until 2016. While global Brent oil prices tumbled as much as 5 percent on Thursday to $54 in anticipation of a deal that could allow Iran to begin selling more crude within months, traders later began weighing the timing of that return. Brent traded at more than $55 a barrel by day’s end. Verifying compliance by Iran, once the world’s fifth-largest oil producer, will "likely take many months after […]
