The immediate outlook for U.S. oil production has rarely been more important for the financial world, with traders scrutinizing every scrap of data for signs of a sustained pull-back in output. It has also rarely been harder to predict. Until late last year, a handful of energy analytics firms had honed the art of real-time oil production forecasts to a near science, running reams of information through complex models that account for everything from a well’s production curve to weather patterns. With the price slump, however, these firms are struggling to keep up with the rapid pace of change. “Things were much more straightforward at $100,” says Bentek Energy analysis manager Anthony Starkey, whose Colorado-based firm publishes end-of-month production data, one of several closely monitored private reports. Last week’s U.S. government data showing a marginal drop in weekly output was a case in point. Some […]