“The data must be wrong,” according to veteran oil analyst Phil Verleger, who wrote in a blistering note that the Energy Information Administration is probably overestimating U.S. oil production by 1.6 million barrels per day. Verleger argues substantially lower U.S. production is the most likely explanation for why global stocks are not rising as fast as predicted and discounts for storing barrels are narrowing (“Notes at the margin” May 11). Other reasons why the stock build is smaller and the forward price structure is firmer could be stronger demand and/or more oil stockpiling in developing countries. But if Verleger is correct, U.S. production would be only 7.7 million barrels per day (bpd) compared with the 9.3 million bpd reported in the agency’s most recent weekly and monthly statistics. The global oil market would be nearly balanced, since most estimates put the global supply surplus at between 1.5 and […]