• Product market strength and rising tension throughout the Middle East supported global crude oil prices in May and through early June. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was trading at around $65.95/bbl, while US WTI was at $61.50/bbl.
  • Global oil supplies fell by 155 kb/d in May to 96 mb/d on lower non-OPEC output, but remained at a steep 3.0 mb/d above last year. Annual growth slowed marginally from March and April and remained roughly split between non-OPEC and OPEC countries. The forecast of non-OPEC supply growth for 2015 have been raised to 1 mb/d.
  • OPEC supply in May edged up 50 kb/d to 31.33 mb/d, the highest since August 2012. Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE pumped at record monthly rates to keep output over 1 mb/d above OPEC’s official supply target for a third month running. Oil ministers agreed to maintain that target at their 5 June meeting.
  • The estimate of global demand growth has been revised up to 1.7 mb/d for 1Q15 and 1.4 mb/d for 2015 as a whole. Momentum is expected to ease somewhat in 2H15, assuming a return to normal weather conditions and given a recent partial recovery in oil prices.
Posted in: IEA