Wood Mackenzie Ltd. believes the economics of core areas within shale plays in western Canada will yield comparable returns to key producing plays in the US Lower 48. “Our western Canadian liquids production forecast is underpinned by an increasing commodity price environment and growing demand for oil sands diluent. We anticipate an upward trajectory in volumes beginning in 2016 and peaking in 2021 with the Montney, Duvernay, and Cardium formations driving volumes,” said Peter Argiris, WoodMac upstream analyst in Calgary. While WoodMac’s liquids growth outlook remains positive, there is a potential downside to the forecast. “One factor that is currently front of mind is the supply-infrastructure constraints from the lighter end of the NGL stream,” Argiris said. “Propane supply is at historic levels and we have seen material price declines as a result. How this affects the remaining NGL stream (apart from diluent) from a pricing-infrastructure capacity perspective could […]