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Top 5 Oil Producing Countries Could See Production Peak This Year

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook came out a few days ago. That is where they try to guess the future production and price for oil, for the USA as well as the world. As of late they seem to be getting a little timid with their predictions. They are saying not much growth is happening until the fourth quarter of 2016, and only a slight bump then. (Click to enlarge) This chart is Non-OPEC Total Liquids in million barrels per day. Production of N.O Liquids surged upwards from September of 2012 until December 2014, gaining 6.38 million barrels per day in those 27 months. That’s an average increase of 236,000 barrels per day per month. But then in January 2015 there was a drop of 800,000 bpd. Non-OPEC total liquids still have not reached that December high again but the EIA thinks they will by August. I have my […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Prices Fall as Nuclear Deal Paves Way for Iran Exports

SINGAPORE—The nuclear accord between Iran and six global powers to be signed Tuesday paves the way for the lifting of Western sanctions and is a step toward restoring Tehran’s oil exports to previous levels. Oil prices fell sharply after news of the deal emerged, with both Brent and Nymex oil futures dropping by more than 2%, posting a loss for the second consecutive day this week. Traders said that while markets have largely priced in a successful nuclear deal, oil prices could breach support levels as a knee-jerk reaction, even though the actual ramp-up in Iranian oil exports could take several months to materialize. Iran, which holds the world’s fourth-largest proved oil reserves, has seen its oil exports nearly halve from peak levels since Western sanctions were imposed. Ramping up oil exports will likely add to current oversupply in the global market and pressure oil prices further. Initial estimates […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Drops With Ruble on Iran as Bonds Climb on Inflation Outlook

A deal that may allow Iran to add to a global oil glut pushed energy prices lower, weakened Russia’s ruble and dimmed the outlook for inflation, boosting bonds. U.S. oil approached $50 a barrel, dragging the Bloomberg Commodity Index down 0.6 percent at 9:52 a.m. in London. Energy producers posted some of the biggest declines in the Stoxx Europe 600 Index and the ruble weakened for a second day. Treasury 30-year bonds rose for the first time in four days and German bunds also advanced. Chinese stocks halted a three-day rally. Iran and world powers sealed a historic accord to curb the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program in return for the lifting of sanctions on a timetable yet to be announced, according to an official involved in the Vienna talks. Data today on U.S. retail sales and Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s testimony from Wednesday may provide clues on the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Euro below $1.10 as investors refocus on diverging interest rates

American dollar notes are displayed in this photo illustration in Johannesburg August 13, 2014. The euro inched towards a six-week low against the dollar on Tuesday, staying below $1.10 as investors switched their focus away from Greece and back towards diverging U.S. and euro zone monetary policy. As oil fell after Iran and major world powers reached an historic nuclear deal that will grant Tehran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear programme, oil-rich Canada’s dollar hit a four-month low CAD=D4 . With Greece’s debt saga off centre-stage – at least temporarily – after the almost-bankrupt country and its creditors agreed to a deal for a third bailout, the spotlight returned to when the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin hiking interest rates. Investors expect the Fed to start raising rates later this year, in stark contrast to the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan, both […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil Production Shows Signs of Flagging

The U.S. and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries have flooded the world with crude oil, sending prices tumbling. But the abundance has overshadowed declining production in areas—from Colombia to Norway to northern China—that experts consider vital to long-term supply growth. Confronted with the plunge in prices, companies in these regions are delaying and canceling projects. Across the world, just six major oil projects received the green light in 2014, compared with an average of more than 20 a year from 2002 to 2013, according to Deutsche Bank AG. The International Energy Agency said Friday that growth in supplies from outside OPEC would “grind to a halt” in 2016, with output due to fall in Russia, Mexico, Europe and elsewhere. Oil companies need to replace between 5% and 8% of crude output each year just to offset shrinking production from old wells, analysts estimate. Currently, that amounts to […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iran, world powers set to adopt nuclear deal, oil price slips

Iran and six world powers have begun a final meeting in Vienna Tuesday to ratify a historic agreement on Iran’s nuclear program that will lead to the removal of sanctions and increased flows of Iranian oil onto world markets. Oil prices slipped slightly on the news that a deal had been reached, with both Brent and WTI futures trading down around 2% at $56.75/b and $51.17/b, respectively, at 0920 GMT. Speaking before the final session, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the agreement, details of which have yet to be released formally, was "not perfect for anyone" but marked the beginning of a new chapter. "I believe this is a historic moment," Zarif told a short press briefing in the Austrian capital. "Today could have been the end of hope on this issue but now we are starting a new chapter of hope." Article continues below… Platts Global […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Bet for Obama on Iran Nuclear Deal Will Take Years to Pay Off

Photo President Obama is essentially betting that once sanctions have been lifted, Iran’s leaders will have no choice but to use much of the new money to better the lives of their citizens. Credit Doug Mills/The New York Times VIENNA — Richard M. Nixon’s opening to China more than 40 years ago was a huge Cold War gamble that he could forge a working relationship with a Communist country that had built a small arsenal of nuclear weapons and clearly had long-term ambitions for global power. For President Obama , the deal struck Tuesday morning with Iran represents a similar leap of faith, a bet that by defusing the country’s nuclear threat — even if just for a decade or so — he and his successors would have the time and space to restructure one of the United States’ deepest adversarial relationships. Mr. Obama will be long out of […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iran Nuclear Deal Is Reached After Long Negotiations

Photo Secretary of State John Kerry with foreign ministers and other delegates from the United States’ negotiating partners in Vienna on Monday. Credit Pool photo by Carlos Barria VIENNA — Iran and a group of six nations led by the United States have agreed to a historic accord to significantly limit Tehran’s nuclear ability for more than a decade in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions against Iran, a senior Western diplomat involved in the negotiations said on Tuesday. The deal, which President Obama had long sought as the biggest diplomatic achievement of his presidency, culminates 20 months of negotiations. A formal announcement of the agreement was expected later on Tuesday, when foreign ministers from Iran and the six nations it has been negotiating with will meet at a United Nations complex in Vienna. Catherine Ray, a spokeswoman for the European Union, said a final plenary meeting […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Iran, World Powers Reach Nuclear Deal

VIENNA—Iran reached a landmark nuclear agreement with the U.S. and five other world powers, a long-sought foreign policy goal of the Obama administration that sets the White House on course for months of political strife with dissenters in Congress and in allied Middle Eastern nations. The accord, which was expected to be signed off at a meeting at 10:30 a.m. local time in Vienna, after a decade of diplomatic efforts that frequently appeared on the verge of collapse, aims to prevent Iran from producing nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief. A press conference will follow, a spokeswoman for European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini said. Assessments of the pact’s likely effect are a source of argument. The Obama administration and its partners hope the deal will resolve a dispute that at times threatened to spark a military conflict. In the optimistic view, it would ease tensions with […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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What Iran’s Nuclear Deal Means for the Global Crude Oil Market

The nuclear accord reached in Vienna on Tuesday could eventually reshape global oil markets. After almost two years of talks, the holder of the world’s fourth-biggest crude reserves will benefit from an easing of international sanctions on exports in return for curbs on its nuclear program, according to an official involved in the talks in Vienna. How Much More Oil Can Iran Produce? Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh says the country can increase exports by 500,000 barrels a day as soon as sanctions are lifted, and then an additional 500,000 a day in the following six months. Iran produced an average of 2.8 million barrels a day this year. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says adding 500,000 barrels a day will take about a year because Iran must first demonstrate its compliance with the terms of the nuclear accord and revive aging wells. Further expansion will need foreign investment, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple