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Iran Talks Stall as Russia, West Spar Over Arms Restrictions

Talks on Iran’s nuclear program were deadlocked and set to miss another deadline as the Islamic Republic’s interlocutors argued over persistent differences, including lifting restrictions on arms sales. Senior officials involved in the negotiations said it was too late to reach a deal by Friday morning in Vienna, the last chance to qualify for a 30-day review in the U.S. Congress. An agreement after that would be subject to 60 days of scrutiny, pushing back the date when Iran could qualify for sanctions relief, its main objective. Diplomats alternated between insisting that a deal is within reach and threatening that they are almost ready to walk out. “We are very close, but if the important, historical political decisions are not made in the next hours we won’t have an agreement,” European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini told CNN late on Thursday. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Accusations Fly as Iran Nuclear Talks Stall

Senior Iranian officials charged the U.S. and European powers with backtracking on recent commitments they made in negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program, assuring a Friday congressional deadline for reaching a deal would be missed. American, European and Iranian negotiators had voiced hope in recent days that a landmark agreement to constrain Tehran’s nuclear program in exchange for a lifting of international sanctions could be reached this week. But Iran and the U.S. on Thursday charged each other with an unwillingness to make crucial political decisions to conclude nearly two years of talks. Senior Iranian negotiators specifically accused the U.S. and its European Union partners of walking back over the past 24 hours commitments Tehran said the six world powers—the U.S., the U.K., France, Russia, Germany and China—made on issues that include sanctions relief and the lifting of a United Nations arms embargo on Iran. On Thursday, Iranian President Hasan […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil may have further to fall due to oversupply: IEA

A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield, California October 14, 2014. Oil prices are set to come under further pressure from easing global demand and an expanding glut of crude while a rebalancing of the markets may last well into next year, the West’s Energy watchdog said on Friday. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said it expected global demand growth to slow next year to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) from 1.4 million this year – far less than needed to balance stubbornly growing non-OPEC and OPEC supply. "The bottom of the market may still be ahead," the IEA said in its monthly report. "The rebalancing that began when oil markets set off on an initial 60 percent price drop a year ago has yet to run its course. Recent developments suggest that the process will extend well into 2016." "The oil market was massively oversupplied […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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China stocks jump again as emergency measures bite

Chinese stocks rose strongly for a second day on Friday, buoyed by a barrage of government support measures, but worries persist about the long-term impact that four weeks of stock market turmoil may have on the world’s second-largest economy. Over the past two weeks Chinese authorities have cut interest rates, suspended initial public offerings, relaxed margin lending and collateral rules and enlisted brokerages to buy stocks, backed by cash from the central bank. Some analysts predict further moves to come from the central bank, which often makes policy announcements over the weekend, such as another rate cut or relaxation of the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves. The frantic efforts to stem the market slide finally began to gain traction on Thursday, when shares rose around 6 percent after the securities regulator banned shareholders with large stakes in listed firms from selling. The CSI300 index of the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ripples in China Stir Expectations for Oil

In the oil world, just like everywhere else, the sun rises in the East. Oddly, it may set there, too. Friday sees the release of the International Energy Agency’s monthly oil-market report. Many will focus on what the IEA has to say about supply, particularly from U.S. shale. But in a week where China’s stock market showed all was far from well in the world’s emerging market-in-chief, oil investors shouldn’t forget demand. In the July report, the IEA will release its first monthly forecast of what oil demand will be in 2016. In February, when the agency released its annual five-year outlook, it projected global demand next year at 94.47 million barrels a day, up from 93.34 million projected for 2015. These numbers move around a lot. A year ago, the IEA’s first forecast for demand growth in 2015 was 1.41 million barrels a day. By January, that had […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC influence debated during House export hearing

Secretary General of OPEC Abdalla el Badri sits in on latest production policy meeting in Vienna. House leaders hear debate over OPEC’s market influence during hearing on U.S. crude oil export policies. File photo by Maryam Rahmanian/UPI WASHINGTON, July 9 (UPI) — U.S. House leaders heard testimony largely in support of lifting a ban on crude oil exports, though debate over OPEC’s market role emerged on the margins. The House Agriculture Committee heard testimony from industry leaders and experts largely in favor of lifting the 1970s-era ban on domestic crude oil exports. Chairman K. Michael Conway, R-Texas, said lifting the ban would have widespread benefits for the United States in the era of shale. "Lifting the oil export ban will grow our economy, it will also improve our geopolitical position and it will lower gas prices," he said in a statement. Arab members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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The EIA’s Short-Term Guessing Game

The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook came out a few days ago. That is where they try to guess the future production and price for oil, for the USA as well as the world. As of late they seem to be getting a little timid with their predictions. They are saying not much growth is happening until the fourth quarter of 2016, and only a slight bump then. STEO N-O Liquids This chart is Non-OPEC Total Liquids in million barrels per day. Production of N.O Liquids surged upwards from September of 2012 until December 2014, gaining 6.38 million barrels per day in those 27 months. That’s an average increase of 236,000 barrels per day per month. But then in January 2015 there was a drop of 800,000 bpd. Non-OPEC total liquids still have not reached that December high again but the EIA thinks they will by August. I have my […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Ending crude export ban would help rural US areas, House panel told

Rural US communities generally have benefited from the nation’s crude oil production renaissance, and potentially could be helped more if restrictions on exports of crude were eliminated, witnesses told a US House Agriculture Committee hearing on July 8. Texas Railroad Commission Chairman David J. Porter called the crude export ban “a leftover relic from another period of time.” Allowing more US-produced oil to be sold overseas would spur domestic production, foster economic growth, and provide direct benefits to rural America and the nation as a whole, Porter said in his written testimony. “The export ban is more than just an outdated policy,” he maintained. “Keeping it in place is actually harming our economy.” When crude prices recently dropped, Texas felt harsh economic impacts as thousands of production workers were laid off and rigs were idled, he told the committee. The number of drilling permits the commission issued fell from […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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House revisits push for Keystone XL

House committee issues subpoena to State Department seeking all documents related to the Keystone XL oil pipeline planned to cross the U.S.-Canadian border. Photo courtesy of TransCanada WASHINGTON, July 9 (UPI) — A committee from the Republican-led House of Representatives said it issued a subpoena to the State Department on the permit process for Keystone XL . The House Oversight and Government Reform Committee said it wanted "all reports, recommendations, letters, and comments received by the State Department" about the Keystone XL oil pipeline planned to cross the U.S.-Canadian border. The Republican-led Congress that took its seat in January said passing legislation to approve construction of Keystone XL, offered for U.S. federal consideration more than six years ago, was job No. 1. The pipeline has become a scapegoat for U.S. energy policies, with backers touting its energy and economic benefits, while detractors say it’s too environmentally risky to support. […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple