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Oil Shock Models with Different Ultimately Recoverable Resources of Crude plus Condensate (3100 Gb to 3700 Gb)

This is a guest post by Dennis Coyne The views expressed are those of Dennis Coyne and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ron Patterson. The post that follows relies heavily on the previous work of both Paul Pukite (aka Webhubbletelescope) and Jean Laherrere and I thank them both for sharing their knowledge, any mistakes are my responsibility. In a previous post I presented a simplified Oil Shock model that closely followed a 2013 estimate of World C+C Ultimately Recoverable Resources (URR) by Jean Laherrere of 2700 Gb, where 2200 Gb was from crude plus condensate less extra heavy oil (C+C-XH) and 500 Gb was from extra heavy (XH) oil resources in the Canadian and Venezuelan oil sands. In the analysis here I use the Hubbert Linearization (HL) method to estimate World C+C-XH URR to be about 2500 Gb. The creaming curve method preferred by Jean Laherrere suggests […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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California grid expected to maintain reliability despite drought

graph of coal production at mines with mountaintop removal permits, as explained in the article text According to the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) , the bulk power system in California is not expected to lose grid reliability this summer, despite a drought that has lowered hydroelectric generation . Overall, NERC expects more than 72 gigawatts (GW) of electric generating capacity to be available this summer in the part of the electric grid covering much of California. Summer electricity demand is expected to peak at nearly 53 GW, resulting in a reserve margin of 38% for the region. California’s hydroelectric generation varies seasonally. From January 2014 to April 2015, hydroelectricity accounted for 6% to 14% of the state’s monthly generation , averaging near 9%. graph of 2014 coal production at mines with mountaintop removal permits, as explained in the article text Since early 2014, much of California has […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Baker Hughes wins Johan Sverdrup contract

Norwegian arm of struggling oil field services company Baker Hughes bags contract for Johan Sverdrup reserve basin, one of the largest ever discovered off the coast of Norway. Photo courtesy of Statoil. STAVANGER, Norway, July 6 (UPI) — The Norwegian arm of oil services company Baker Hughes received a $187 million contract for onshore services supporting the Johan Sverdrup field, Statoil said. "Drilling will commence in 2016," Oivind Reinertsen, Statoil’s senior vice president for Johan Sverdrup development, said in a statement. "Together with Baker Hughes we will quickly establish an integrated operations team, working closely with the [Norwegian] drilling and rig contractor Odfjell to plan and optimize well deliveries." The contract for Baker Hughes runs for six years and includes four-year options for the life of field, one of the largest discoveries ever made on the Norwegian continental shelf. There was no statement on the contract from Baker Hughes, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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In Greece, ATM Lines, Bank Transfer Limits Enter Second Week

ATHENS—Many Greeks went to bed Sunday night jubilant after the runaway success of a referendum urging the government to push back in negotiations with its eurozone creditors. On Monday, they woke up to the start of a second week of restrictions on money transfers and lines outside ATMs. The capital controls, which limit withdrawals to €60 ($66) a day and forbid electronic transfers outside of Greece, are fast choking the economy. The head of the country’s banking association said banks would remain closed through Wednesday; few expect them to open soon after that. The European Central Bank tightened the screws Monday, demanding that Greek banks put up more assets as collateral to secure the emergency lending that is keeping them alive, if not fully functioning. The move doesn’t directly affect the amount of emergency loans they receive. It is unclear when they might run out of cash. There are […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Germany Stays Tough on Debt Relief for Greece

Germany stood firm against debt relief for Greece the day after the country’s voters issued a resounding “no” to more austerity, signaling a tough fight ahead on one of the few opportunities for compromise on any potential bailout for Athens. About 61% of Greek voters cast their referendum ballots on Sunday in support of Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras’s stance against the pension cuts and tax increases that Greece’s creditors—the rest of the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund— say are necessary to get Greece’s economy going again. That leaves cutting debt as a possible make-or-break element of any deal to keep Europe’s currency union intact. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande, whose country has emerged as one of the few friendly voices for Greece in the eurozone, made no mention of the debt issue at a joint news conference in Paris. But opposing comments from their […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil falls on Greece vote, China stock market turmoil

LONDON Oil prices fell sharply on Monday after Greece rejected debt bailout terms and as China rolled out emergency measures to prevent a full-blown stock market crash, adding to worries about poor demand growth at a time of global oversupply. The result of Greece’s referendum has put in doubt its membership in the euro, pulling down the single currency EUR= against the dollar. A strong dollar tends to pressure commodities as it makes fuel more expensive for holders of other currencies. Commodities were also sucked into market turmoil that has seen Chinese shares .CSI300 fall as much as 30 percent since June due in part to an economy that is growing at its slowest pace in a generation. Chinese brokerages and fund managers have agreed to buy massive amounts of stocks to support markets, helped by China’s state-backed margin finance company, which in turn would be aided by a […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Oil, Commodities Tumble as Investors React to Greek Vote

Risk aversion dominated energy and commodity markets in Asian trade Monday as prices fell sharply, led by oil and industrial metals, on heightened fears of Greece’s exit from the eurozone. Even gold, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven by investors, failed to live up to that epithet as a broad-based selloff hit the markets. On Sunday, Greeks overwhelmingly voted against their international creditors’ conditions for further bailout aid , adding to uncertainty around the country’s eurozone membership and heightening risks of market contagion. “Markets are due for a bumpy ride as the face-off ensues,” Singapore-based Phillip Futures said. Nymex crude-oil futures for August delivery fell as much 4% in early Asian hours, before paring some losses to trade $1.83 lower at $55.05 a barrel in the Globex electronic session. ICE Brent crude fell $0.51 to $59.81 a barrel. Asian investors are also reacting to the sharp fall in oil prices […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Stocks, euro fall but no rout after Greek ‘No’

LONDON Shares fell in Europe and Asia, the euro stumbled and yields on weaker euro zone economies’ bonds rose after Greece overwhelmingly voted against conditions for a rescue package, but there was no rout and contagion was limited. Investors sought low-risk assets including Bunds, but the yield premium of Italian 10-year debt over Germany remained below last Monday’s eight-month highs. The euro EUR= lost half a percent to $1.1064 and 0.6 percent against the safe-haven Japanese yen EURJPY=. It fell as low as $1.0967 in Asia before rebounding, taking some support from the resignation of Greece’s outspoken finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis. Some bankers, including JPMorgan, said the vote made it more likely that Greece would leave the single currency. Other investors said the European Central Bank’s response would be key to the extent of contagion. "The market is, rightly or wrongly, taking a great deal of credence of the […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Kerry Says Difficult Issues Still to Be Resolved for an Iran Deal

VIENNA—Key elements of a landmark nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers were falling into place Sunday, but U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry warned there were important sticking points that may yet scuttle the deal. Mr. Kerry said the Obama administration could walk away from the negotiations if Iran proves “intransigent” on the remaining issues by Tuesday. That is the new deadline for a comprehensive agreement aimed at blocking Iran’s ability to move swiftly toward nuclear weapons in exchange for easing tight international sanctions. Senior U.S. and Iranian officials said advances have been made on two of the thorniest issues: the pace of sanctions relief for Iran and a United Nations investigation into charges that Tehran has secretly developed nuclear weapons technologies in recent decades. European Union foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini said late Sunday that a final agreement, which has taken more than a decade of diplomacy, […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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Kerry Warns Iran That U.S. Will Not Accept an Unsound Nuclear Deal

Photo Secretary of State John Kerry, at the nuclear talks with Iran in Vienna on Sunday, said the negotiations could go either way. Credit Hans Punz/European Pressphoto Agency VIENNA — Secretary of State John Kerry warned Iran on Sunday that hard choices were still needed to seal a landmark nuclear accord, and that the United States was prepared to walk away if a sound agreement could not be reached. “We are not yet where we need to be on several of the most difficult issues,” Mr. Kerry said in a statement in front of the Palais Coburg, the Vienna hotel where the talks are being held. “This negotiation could go either way.” Mr. Kerry’s remarks came two days before a target date for wrapping up the agreement and as foreign ministers from the other world powers involved in the talks are heading here for what is intended to be […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple