U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by almost 2.4 million barrels last week, breaking a run of eight consecutive weekly declines and sending oil prices sharply lower. But did the market overreact when the stock numbers were released on Wednesday – misinterpreting normal week-to-week variability in the data as a fundamental shift in the balance between supply and demand? Tanker arrivals create quite a bit of “noise” in the weekly inventory data which can easily be confused with shifts in the supply-demand balance over short periods. Reported crude stockpiles are driven by three factors: domestic crude production, crude imports, and refinery runs. Domestic output is fairly constant week to week, but imports and runs are highly variable. In 2014, U.S. refineries processed an average of 15.8 million barrels per day (bpd). Domestic crude production was around 8.7 million bpd in 2014 and the country imported around 7.3 million bpd […]