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WoodMac: ‘Decade-long’ global gasoline surplus possible for refiners

The global oil product market could experience a surplus of gasoline supply as early as 2017, according to the latest long-term oil product market forecast from Wood Mackenzie Ltd . The research and consultancy firm explains that the surplus, combined with a deficit of middle distillate and fuel oil, would put significant pressure on refiners by the end of the decade. Refiners currently benefit from low oil prices, unplanned refinery outages, and slower-than-expected ramp-up of new facilities, collectively helping keep oil product markets tight. And refiners are struggling to meet gasoline demand growth of 420,000 b/d. However, WoodMac cautions that oil demand growth will eventually slow in the long-term due to increasing efficiency and alternative fuel sources. The firm expects margins to fall by 2019 to the minimum sustainable level for some refiners and identifies key market indicators that could see gasoline cracks bottom out at low levels last […]

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Why the $20 Oil Predictions are Wrong

As the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retests the $40 per barrel (bbl) mark, some pundits are again calling for WTI to fall to $15 or $20/bbl. The same thing happened earlier in the year when crude prices tested $40. Lots of people predicted $20, the price went to $60, and the $20 crowd went quiet for a while. Well, they are back: “There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest we have bottomed. You could have $15 or $20 oil — easily,” influential money manager David Kotok told CNNMoney. “I’m an old goat. I remember when oil was $3 a barrel,” said Kotok, whose clients include former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean. Yes, and you could get a candy bar and soda for a nickel. But I will bet him $10,000 we don’t see WTI at $15/bbl unless he has access to a time machine. Today I want […]

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From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest

Photo Members of an Iraqi oil police force guarding a field near Basra last week. Iraqis have protested shortages of government services. Credit Essam Al-Sudani/Reuters Oil, the lifeblood of many countries that produce and sell it, appears to be rapidly turning into an ever-cheaper economic curse. A year ago, the international price per barrel of oil was about $103. By Monday, the price was about $42 , roughly 6 percent lower than on Friday. In oil -endowed Iraq , where an Islamic State insurgency and fractious sectarian politics are growing threats, a new source of instability erupted this month with violent protests over the government’s failure to provide reliable electricity and explain what has been done with all the promised petroleum money. In Russia , a leading oil producer, consumers are now paying far more for imports , largely because of their currency’s plummeting value. In Nigeria and Venezuela […]

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U.K. Says Iran Sanctions Could Start to be Lifted in Spring 2016

LONDON—Sanctions against Iran could begin to be eased as early as next spring, Britain’s foreign secretary said Monday, the latest sign of thawing ties between Tehran and the West. During a two-day visit to Iran, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said he expected preparatory business negotiations to take place well ahead of the formal lifting of sanctions. However, he added that the U.K. and Iran still have a fundamental disagreement on Syria. Mr. Hammond met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Monday. The foreign secretary had arrived in the Iranian capital a day earlier to attend the reopening of the British embassy there after nearly four years. Iran also formally reopened its embassy in London. The diplomatic moves follow a landmark nuclear agreement last month between Iran, the U.S. and five other world powers. Mr. Hammond also said Iran and the U.S. could endorse the deal by October. “We could […]

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Fourth tanker leaves Iranian floating storage since nuclear deal: Platts cFlow

Another tanker has left Iran’s floating storage fleet, the fourth to detach from one of two flotillas based in the Persian Gulf since Iran’s landmark nuclear deal July 14, Platts cFlow ship-tracking software shows. The National Iranian Tanker Company-owned Nancy had been observed anchored off Kharg Island for 135 days until August 19, when its transponder was shut off, making the ship "invisible" to vessel-tracking software. The 2.1 million-barrel vessel then reappeared briefly Sunday in the UAE’s Fujairah waiting zone — where ships often bunker prior to long journeys or conduct ship-to-ship transfers — before going invisible Monday, bound for an unknown destination, Platts cFlow data showed. Sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program are unlikely to be lifted before the end of the year. The UN’s nuclear watchdog is scheduled to deliver its final report on Iranian compliance with the July deal by December 15. Analysts at ESAI Energy […]

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IAEA says needs more money to implement Iran nuclear deal

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano addresses a news conference after a board of governors meeting at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 8, 2015. The U.N. nuclear watchdog needs more money to carry out its role under a deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, its chief Yukiya Amano said on Tuesday, putting the annual cost for the agency at 9.2 million euros ($10.63 million). The costs for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) verification and monitoring activities in Iran have so far been met through extra-budgetary contributions from member states, Amano said. He called on member states to provide the IAEA with the money it needed for its work in Iran and said the 800,000 euros per month it had already received would be exhausted by the end of next month. (Reporting By Shadia Nasralla; Editing by Janet Lawrence )

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Europe Doesn’t Share U.S. Concerns on Iran Deal

PARIS — Given the sound, fury and millions of dollars swirling around the debate in Washington over the Iranian nuclear deal, the silence in Europe is striking. It’s particularly noticeable in Britain, France and Germany , which were among the seven countries that signed the deal on July 14. Here in France, which took the toughest stance during the last years of negotiation, the matter is settled, according to Camille Grand, director of the Strategic Research Foundation in Paris and an expert on nuclear nonproliferation. “In Europe, you don’t have a constituency against the deal,” he said. “In France, I can’t think of a single politician or member of the expert community who has spoken against it, including some of us who were critical during the negotiations.” Mr. Grand said the final agreement was better than he had expected. “I was surprised by the depth and the quality of […]

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Wild Cards Remain as Democrats Add Supporters on Iran Deal

Photo Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, endorsed the Iran nuclear accord on Sunday. Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images WASHINGTON — With Senator Harry Reid ’s undiluted endorsement Sunday of the Iran nuclear accord, followed by Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan on Monday, supporters of the deal are closing in on the number they need to ensure it goes into force. But the ranks of undecided Democrats are still full of quirks and wild cards, from a freshman senator from Michigan whose closest aide has a pro-Israeli government bent to lawmakers inclined toward avoiding military conflict but from states where any position in support of President Obama is toxic. More vexing still, Democratic leaders worry that Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, could allow a resolution of disapproval of the deal to be loaded with politically charged amendments, such as making it contingent on Iran ’s recognizing the […]

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Why Water Is More Important To Iran’s Future Than Oil

As Congress prepares to vote on the Iran nuclear deal, the focus remains on what separates the Islamic republic from the United States , which, depending on your worldview is either a lot, or everything. The truth is that similarities, though perhaps few in number, do exist. Similar though contrasting religious convictions, a penchant for exceptionalism, and pistachios aside, water management stands to be a defining issue for both nations – and, truthfully, the world – as we approach mid-century. Water management in the United States is a historically dense – and increasingly dry – topic. In the early twentieth century, thousands of ill-conceived and wanton public works projects reclaimed vast swathes of the arid deserts dotting the west. The mega metropolises and industrial-scale agribusinesses that the Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation wrought are the definition of Manifest Destiny, and at the very least unsustainable. That fact […]

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Making It Up As They Go Along: The Long, Troubled History of Iraqi Kurdistan’s Presidency

Iraqi Kurdistan’s problems with their President are actually nothing new. In fact, being a President here has often had no democratic or legal foundation. There’s a long history behind the current debate. A PUK supporter holds a green flag during election campaigning in 2010. (photo: دشتي أنور) The Iraqi Kurdish President’s term expired yesterday. And the political actors in the semi-autonomous, northern region have been arguing about whether the current President, Massoud Barzani, should stay or go for more than two months now, in the run up to this expiration. Nobody has been able to come to any kind of agreement and it looks as though, despite the best efforts of many, the debate will go on. But in fact this particular debate has been going on for far longer than the current episode. The question of who should get the job of president in Iraqi Kurdistan has been […]

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