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Iraqi PM says defense of refinery town crucial to IS defeat

In this Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 photo, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, second from right, meets with his military commanders at an Iraqi Army base near the oil refinery town of Beiji north of Baghdad, Iraq. Al-Abadi said that winning the ongoing battle over control of an oil refinery town north of Baghdad is the key to defeating the Islamic State group in Iraq during his visit to the town of Beiji. Photo: Uncredited, AP / AP In this Monday, Aug. 24, 2015 photo, Iraq’s Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi, second from right, meets with his military commanders at an Iraqi Army base near the oil refinery town of Beiji north of Baghdad, Iraq. Al-Abadi said that winning the ongoing battle over control of an oil refinery town north of Baghdad is the key to defeating the Islamic State group in Iraq during his visit to the town of Beiji. […]

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Pipeline outages threaten Kurdistan oil autonomy

Twin oil pipelines run north to a processing facility at the Avana Dome oil formation in the Sargaran sub-district, Aug. 25, 2015. (PATRICK OSGOOD/Iraq Oil Report) Iraqi oil exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan port are stopped again after going offline Monday morning – the latest in an intensifying pattern of outages that have blocked Kurdistan’s oil sector from reaching the international market for one-third of August.The combined effect of a slump in oil prices and incessant outages along the pipeline could jeopardize the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) policy of becoming self-reliant through independent oil exports. The August shutoffs alone have pre… This content is for registered users. Please login to continue. If you are not a registered user, you may purchase a subscription or sign up for a free trial .

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Water Is Called Casualty of Syrian War

Water availability in Syria has been halved since the conflict there began nearly four and a half years ago, and millions of people around the country endure “long and sometimes deliberate interruptions to their water supplies,” the United Nations said Tuesday. In a report about the scarcity of water in Syria, Unicef said it had recorded 18 deliberate cuts to the public water supply in the northern city of Aleppo this year. “Taps in some communities were left dry for up to 17 days in a row — and for over a month in some areas of the city,” the report asserted, accusing antagonists in the conflict of “using water to achieve military and political gains.” Unicef estimated that 2.3 million people in Aleppo, 2.5 million in Damascus and 250,000 in the southern city of Dara’a are suffering water shortages, and that children sent by families to fetch water […]

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Opinion: Saudis Could Face An Open Revolt At Next OPEC Meeting

« Warm-forged aluminum alloy differential case reduces weight by about 40% | Main | Proportion of biomethane is Swedish natural gas vehicle fuel sales hits high of 73% » by Dalan McEndree for Oilprice.com OPEC next gathers December 4 in Vienna, just over a year since Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi announced at the previous OPEC winter meeting the Saudi decision to let the oil market determine oil prices rather than to continue Saudi Arabia’s role of guarantor of $100+/bbl oil. Despite the intense financial and economic pain this decision has inflicted on Saudi Arabia, its fellow OPEC members, and other oil producers, the Saudis have given no indication they plan to alter course. In fact, Saudis have downplayed the impact of lower prices on their country, asserting that the kingdom has the financial wherewithal to withstand lower oil prices. Presumably swayed by Saudi equanimity, financial markets do not […]

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Hezbollah throws weight behind protests, deepening crisis

AP Photo/Hassan Ammar BEIRUT (AP) — The powerful Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah threw its weight Tuesday behind mass protests calling for the government’s resignation, deepening a crisis that started over piles of uncollected garbage in the streets of the capital but has tapped into a much deeper malaise. The explosion of anger targets the endemic corruption, hapless government and sectarian divisions of a brittle country once torn by civil war and now struggling with a wave of tens of thousands of Syrian refugees. A grassroots youth movement calling itself "You Stink" mobilized thousands of people in two rallies over the weekend, and has called for another large protest on Saturday. The Hezbollah announcement of support for the protests is likely to fuel concerns the Iranian-backed group and its allies will try to hijack a rare, non-political movement for its own political gain. Hezbollah ministers and their allies walked out […]

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Nigerian Second-Quarter Economic Growth Slows on Oil Plunge

An oil pipeline in Nigeria. Growth in the Nigerian economy, Africa’s largest, slowed in the second quarter due to the slump in oil prices, the country’s statistics office said. Gross domestic product expanded 2.35 percent on an annual basis, compared with 3.96 percent a quarter earlier, the head of the National Bureau of Statistics, Yemi Kale, said on his Twitter account on Tuesday. The oil industry contracted 6.8 percent, Kale said. “This is not a good result for Nigeria,” Alan Cameron, a London-based economist at Exotix Partners LLP, said in e-mailed comments. “Moreover, with policy rates stuck at high levels, and fiscal policy being tightened automatically through lower statutory oil disbursements, it is hard to see any catalyst for improvement.” The central bank raised its key interest rate to a record high of 13 percent in November, since when inflation has accelerated beyond the bank’s target band of 6 […]

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Nigeria: ‘Age-Old Rot’ Shuts Down Warri Refinery

Warri and Port Harcourt — Barely two weeks after it resumed operation, the Warri Refining and Petrochemical Company (WRPC) has been shut down. The development is coming on the heels of public excitement that followed news of the nation’s moribund refineries kicking back to life. The Guardian learnt that the refinery was shut down few days ago, as crude oil stored in its receptors ran out. "It goes to show the rot that has been embedded in the system over the years. Now that you have a Buhari government in place, everybody is running helter-skelter to do the needful and in the process they have forgotten to do proper planning. And as they say, when you fail to plan, you plan to fail. "Right now, you have a situation where everybody is in a hurry to do the right thing and they forget that you have to follow a […]

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Oil at $77? It Is in This Country That Plays by Its Own Rules

South America’s second-largest and most enigmatic economy, Argentina is marching to its own beat. (Bloomberg) — Oil at $77? It is in Argentina. Oil has plummeted below $39 a barrel in the U.S. But despite the price bloodbath in global energy markets, it fetches nearly twice that amount in Argentina — home to some of the most expensive crude in the world. Even as prices plunged anew Monday, sending world benchmarks close to the lowest levels they briefly hit in the Great Recession, oil is still flying high in Argentina for the simple reason the government wants it that way. There is some method behind the apparent madness. Argentina is home to the second-largest reserves of shale gas and fourth- largest of shale oil in the world. Faced with a $6-billion energy trade deficit in 2014, the government has been using its made-in-Argentina price to try to turbocharge domestic […]

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Moody’s Puts Mexico’s Pemex on Review for Downgrade

MEXICO CITY— Moody’s Investors Service MCO -0.53 % on Tuesday placed Mexican national oil company Petróleos Mexicanos on review for a possible downgrade in its credit rating, citing falling earnings at the company because of lower crude oil prices and a likely increase in financing needs. The review was prompted by the company’s weak cash generation and financial profile so far in 2015. “Cash generation has weakened due to lower oil prices and will result in large borrowing needs in the near future,” Moody’s said in a release. Pemex is rated A3 by Moody’s, which is the same as Mexico’s sovereign rating. The Mexican government’s outlook is stable. Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor’s rate Pemex triple-B-plus, the equivalent of one notch below Moody’s. The state company, which pays much of its earnings to the federal government in royalties and taxes, has been steadily increasing investment budgets over the […]

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China cuts rates, reserve ratio to aid economy as stocks sink

A Chinese national flag flutters outside the headquarters of the People’s Bank of China, the Chinese central bank, in Beijing, April 3, 2014. China’s central bank cut interest rates and lowered the amount of reserves banks must hold for the second time in two months on Tuesday, ratcheting up support for a stuttering economy and a plunging stock market that has sent shockwaves around the globe. The move came as Chinese stock indexes nosedived more than 7 percent on Tuesday to hit troughs not seen since December, and after shares had plunged over 8 percent on Monday. The latest policy easing also followed a shock devaluation in the yuan CNY=CFXS two weeks ago, a move that authorities billed as aiding financial reforms, but that some saw as the start of a gradual slide in the currency to help stumbling exporters. "Frankly this shows a bit of panic in my […]

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BHP Billiton hit hard by Chinese economic decline

Australian mining giant BHP Billiton says Chinese weakness behind major slump in revenue. FIle Photo by UPI Photo/Stephen Shaver MELBOURNE, Aug. 25 (UPI) — An oversupplied crude oil market and a slowing Chinese economy helped drag revenue down for the period ending June 30, Australia’s BHP Billiton said Tuesday. BHP reported revenue from continuing operations down 21.4 percent for the period, total revenue down 22.2 percent, and capital spending down 24 percent for the period compared with last year. The Australian company said it was taking a reigned in approach moving forward, cutting spending next year by 22 percent to $8.5 million and another 17 percent from there to $7 billion in 2017. Profits after tax for the year ending June 30 declined 85 percent to $1.9 billion. Energy companies are struggling to generate cash while lower crude oil prices crimp operating expenses. Crude oil prices are at historic […]

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China Eases but Stench of Crisis Remains

At least Beijing isn’t wasting its crisis. China fired a double-barreled easing shot after its stock market plunged yet again Tuesday. This included an interest-rate cut and a reduction of bank reserve-requirement ratios, both aimed at both cushioning the stock-market fall and spurring the real economy. But in a significant long-term move, the central bank took another step toward liberalizing interest rates. The People’s Bank of China said banks would now be free to offer what they wanted on rates for one-year deposits. These apply to accounts in which savers must keep their money in the bank for a year, similar to a certificate of deposit. That follows a move in May, when the PBOC gave banks additional leeway—though not total freedom—to set deposit rates on short-duration deposit accounts. Letting banks set their own deposit rates is the final step in China’s shift from a command-and-control banking system to […]

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Cnooc First-Half Profit Drops 56% on Plunging Crude Prices

Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil and gas explorer, posted a 56 percent decline in profit for the first half of this year. Net income dropped to 14.73 billion yuan ($2.3 billion), or 0.33 yuan a share, from 33.59 billion yuan, or 0.75 yuan, a year earlier, the Beijing-based explorer said in a statement to the Hong Kong stock exchange Wednesday. That exceeded the 13.9-billion yuan average of three analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Cnooc, which depends purely on oil exploration and production for revenue, is most exposed to oil’s plunge this year and must rely on cost cuts and capital spending curbs to boost profit, said Laban Yu, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Jefferies Group LLC. The strategy paid off last year, when it posted a surprise 6.6 percent profit increase. Brent crude has averaged about $59 a barrel in the first half of the year, down 45 […]

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Political Risks May Foil Economic Reform in China

Photo A migrant worker shields her face at a construction site in Shanghai. China’s five-year plans have given local government officials a single goal: Grow. Credit Aly Song/Reuters Can China pull it off? A couple of weeks ago, the International Monetary Fund told the world that China was essentially doing O.K. It is “transitioning to a new normal,” the I.M.F. said in its regular economic assessment , toward “slower but safer and more sustainable growth.” The main risk, it argued, was that the Chinese government’s push for economic reform might prove “insufficient.” It seems this is a pretty big risk. Financial markets were shaken by China’s decision to abruptly devalue its currency on Aug. 11, days ahead of the publication of the I.M.F. report. For all the I.M.F.’s assurances that this was a minor adjustment after a sharp appreciation of the currency until then, a welcome step that “should […]

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China’s Party-Run Media Is Silent on Market Mayhem

Photo Tuesday’s People’s Daily did not mention the stock markets. Credit The New York Times HONG KONG — After China ’s stock markets crumpled , prompting a global sell-off, People’s Daily, the premier newspaper of the Chinese Communist Party, had other things on its mind. There was no mention of the market mayhem on the newspaper’s front page on Tuesday, when it featured a report about economic development in Tibet. Indeed, there was not a single reference to the stock markets throughout the entire 24 pages of the paper, which dwelled instead on the forthcoming 70th anniversary of Japan’s defeat in World War II. The silence continued on Wednesday, when the paper again did not report on the stock market upheavals, although it did have articles about Chinese central bank decisions and Prime Minister Li Keqiang’s restatement of confidence in the broader economy, despite the effects of what he […]

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Glut of Chinese Steel Looms Large

The world’s biggest producers of iron ore have a problem, and it lies in the steel that has already gone into China’s cars, bridges and skyscrapers. On Tuesday, BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest miner, lowered its long-run forecast for peak China steel demand to between 935 million and 985 million metric tons from one billion to 1.1 billion tons. China’s annual production is currently at about 800 million tons. This historic glut of Chinese steel, and concerns over the country’s economic prospects, have hurt prices for iron ore, the biggest ingredient in steelmaking. The commodity has fallen to roughly $50 a ton from $190 a metric ton in 2011, squeezing the profits—and share prices—of the world’s biggest mining companies. The S&P mining index has declined to 18.33 from above 70 over that stretch. China accumulated so much steel so rapidly that the total amount of steel in the economy […]

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Why China’s Thirst for Oil Can’t Lift Prices

SINGAPORE—Oil prices haven’t proved immune as commodities prices tumble amid jitters about China’s economy, with key global benchmarks trading around six-year lows . That is despite Chinese crude demand remaining remarkably robust. Chinese oil data might even be expected to be pushing up prices. The country’s crude imports jumped 22% in July compared with a year ago, to 7.25 million barrels a day, according to customs data. That sort of surge might prove unsustainable, but China’s oil imports could still rise by over 7% this year, according to Citi Research. China’s oil thirst looks all the stronger when compared with its appetite for other energy sources. Demand for coal in the world’s second-largest economy has slipped this year, for example. Even so, oil-market participants blame China for the latest leg-down in oil prices. The selloff was triggered by the plunge in China’s stock markets and the yuan’s devaluation earlier […]

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BP restarts crude unit at Whiting refinery

BP PLC has restarted the largest of three crude distillation units (CDUs) at its 413,000-b/d refinery in Whiting, Ind., following the unit’s unplanned shutdown in early August for unscheduled repair work ( OGJ Online, Aug. 18, 2015 ). The processing unit, which shut down on Aug. 8, has returned to service and has resumed production of fuel, BP said. While restart of the unit is helping to increase the refinery’s overall fuel output, the 250,000-b/d CDU will continue to ramp up to its full processing capacity over time, BP said. The company did not disclose an estimate of when the unit would return to planned processing rates. The rest of the Whiting refinery remains in full operation at scheduled rates, and despite a still-reduced fuel production at the site, BP said it continues to meet its contractual fuel supply obligations to customers. Following the CDU shutdown, US congressional representatives […]

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Signs, Long Unheeded, Now Point to Risks in U.S. Economy

Photo Awaiting the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange. Credit Justin Lane/European Pressphoto Agency As investors scramble to make sense of the wild market swings in recent days, a number of financial experts argue that, for more than a year now, signs pointing to an equity crisis were there for all to see. The data points range from the obvious to the obscure, encompassing stock market and credit bubbles in China, the strength of the dollar relative to emerging market currencies, a commodity rout and a sudden halt to global earnings growth. While it would have been impossible to predict the precise timing of the last week’s downturn, this array of economic and financial indicators led to an inescapable conclusion, these analysts say: The United States economy would only be able to avoid for so long the deflationary forces that have taken root in China. And if […]

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For Oil Producers Cash Is King, and That’s Why They Just Can’t Stop Drilling

Investors sent a surprising message to U.S. shale producers as crude fell almost 20 percent in August: keep calm and drill on. While most oil stocks have fallen sharply this month, the least affected by the slump share one thing in common: they don’t plan to slow down, even though a glut of supply is forcing prices down. Cimarex Energy Co. jumped more than 8 percent in two days after executives said Aug. 5 that their rig count would more than double next year. Pioneer Natural Resources Co. rallied for three days when it disclosed a similar increase. Shareholders continue to favor growth over returns, helping explain why companies that form the engine of U.S. oil — the frackers behind the boom — aren’t slowing down enough to rebalance the market. U.S. production has remained high, frustrating OPEC’s strategy of maintaining market share and enlarging a glut that has […]

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Oil Investors Betting on Payout Cuts Ignore Years of History

Shares of the largest oil companies have slumped so low it suggests investors expect the crash in crude prices to force cuts in dividends. History tells a different story. Oil’s collapse has driven the annual dividend yield at Royal Dutch Shell Plc to at least a 20-year high of 7.7 percent this week, compared with 4.4 percent for the benchmark FTSE 100 Index. The yield — the annual return divided by the share price — is also at a two-decade high at Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. “The market is telling us that investors think the dividend payouts may not be sustainable with oil at this level,” said Ahmed Ben Salem, a Paris-based analyst with Oddo & Cie. “History suggests otherwise. Oil companies are very attached to their dividend policy and if they were to cut it they’d lose a lot of investors.” Shell, Europe’s biggest oil company, […]

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Jean Laherrere’s Bakken Update

The rest of North Dakota, less the Bakken, is just about finished. With this chart Jean puts North Dakota production right at the peak. Being a self confessed techno-optimist of sorts I’ll bite but before I do, here are some news stories that will support some of the arguments I will be putting forward The target was unveiled by ACT chief minister Andrew Barr at the ACT Labor Party conference on Saturday. The ACT already had a 90 per cent renewable energy target by 2020, but decided to go the “whole hog” by 2025 to show leadership in the climate and clean energy debate that has been lacking at the federal level. “Canberra can and should be a beacon for everyone who realises the world must act decisively now to stave off a future of catastrophic climate change,” Barr told the conference on Saturday. The ACT is able to […]

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Refinery issues skewing U.S. gasoline prices

High demand and refinery issues in the United States mean gasoline prices could be lower than they are, markets analyses find. File Photo by UPI/Gary C. Caskey WASHINGTON, Aug. 25 (UPI) — Though at historic lows on average, refinery issues in the United States and higher demand put upward pressure on gasoline prices, retail market analyses find. Motor club AAA reports a national average retail price for a gallon of unleaded gasoline for Tuesday at $2.57, down a fraction of a percent from Monday. Tuesday’s price is down about 5 percent from one month ago and represents the lowest price for this date in more than a decade. The average retail price nation-wide was skewed upward in early August after BP reported an unscheduled outage at its refinery in Whiting , Ind., the sixth largest in the nation and a key gasoline supplier to the Great Lakes states. Prices […]

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Encana Corp. leaves Louisiana shale

Canadian energy company Encana sells shale acreage in Louisiana in an effort to ease debt burden. Photo by Christopher Halloran/Shutterstock CALGARY, Alberta, Aug. 25 (UPI) — In an effort to cut debt, Canadian energy company Encana Corp. said Tuesday it was selling its shale natural gas assets in Louisiana for $850 million. Encana said it was unloading its assets in the Haynesville shale basin to GEP Haynesville, LLC, a joint venture formed by fund manager GSO Capital Partners and GeoSouthern Haynesville. The Canadian company said it would use the cash from the sale, as well as savings from the footprint reduction, to cut debt. "By further focusing our portfolio, we are making Encana more efficient as we proceed through the second half of 2015 and into 2016," Encana President and Chief Executive Officer Doug Suttles said in a statement. "This transaction delivers significant proceeds that we’ll use to strengthen […]

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Bakken Oil Production Up Slightly

Bakken Production North Dakota saw increased production in July after slipping for two months. In April, the EIA predicted that production had peaked across the U.S. at 9.7 million barrels per day, the highest level since 1971. This proved to be true as production fell in May by 50,000 barrels per day and in June, Bakken shale month-over-month crude oil production dipped 1.3%. This week, Bentek Energy reported a slight increase in oil production for North Dakota in July, saying that the Bakken formation follows closely behind the Eagle Ford Basin in terms of efficiency gains and internal rates of return. Drill times in the Bakken dropped from about 15 days per well in late 2014 to about 13 days per well during the second quarter of this year. Bentek analyst, Sami Yahya, explained “Substantial cost savings protocols alongside reduced drill times have kept internal rates of return in […]

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More oil than expected in Norwegian North Sea

Norwegian energy regulator revises estimates of potential oil in North Sea field tapped by Lundin Petroleum. Photo by num_skyman/Shutterstock STAVANGER, Norway, Aug. 25 (UPI) — The national energy regulator in Norway said preliminary results from a North Sea field show a potential increase in estimated recoverable oil reserves. The National Petroleum Directorate said it was reviewing the preliminary results from an appraisal well drilled by Lundin Petroleum in the Edvard Grieg oil field in the central section of the North Sea. "Preliminary calculations show that the results from the well may result in an increase of between 6.2 million and 50 million barrels of recoverable oil in this section of the Edvard Grieg field," the regulator said in a statement. "Further work is expected to reduce the uncertainty of this estimate." Lundin in early August revised its production guidance lower to 32,000 barrels of oil equivalents per day as […]

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Oil rallies but still near 6-1/2-year lows

A customer prepares to fill the tank of her car at a fuel station in Sint Pieters Leeuw December 5, 2014. Oil bounced back from heavy losses on Tuesday but global oversupply and worries over the severity of the economic slowdown in China, the world’s top commodity consumer, kept prices near 6-1/2-year lows. European equity markets recovered on Tuesday but Chinese stock markets closed down more than 7 percent, with panic selling intensifying after the flagship Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC crashed through key support at 3,000 points. U.S. crude CLc1, also known at West Texas Intermediate or WTI, was up 65 cents at $38.89 a barrel by 0840 GMT (0440 EDT), while Brent LCOc1 was up 60 cents at $43.29. "It all depends on the European stock market," Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch told Reuters Global Oil Forum. "If stocks fall further, oil will follow suit." Oil prices dropped […]

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Oil Tumbles to Fresh Lows on China Market Turmoil

Oil prices tumbled to fresh lows in Asian trade Monday, in line with the selloff in wider financial markets, as investors were shaken by the rout in Chinese equity markets and worries about global economic growth. Brent crude, the global oil-price benchmark, dropped below the $45 a barrel mark for the first time since March 2009. It is now trading around 56% lower from its year-high of $103.19 a barrel reached in August last year. Oil prices have been under pressure for several months due to oversupply concerns, but the slump deepened in recent weeks on fears of a sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy and its impact on global markets. The recent devaluation of the yuan also added to market uncertainty, stoking concerns that China’s oil and commodities imports could fall further. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in October traded at […]

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Brent Oil Falls Below $45 for First Time Since 2009 on Supplies

Crude in London slid below $45 a barrel for the first time since March 2009 on concerns Chinese demand is slowing just as Iran and the U.S. threaten to expand a global glut. Brent oil fell as much as 6.5 percent, extending a 7.3 percent drop last week that was the biggest in five months. Commodities sank to the lowest in 16 years as forecasts for the weakest Chinese growth since 1990 spurred investors to seek out the safest assets. U.S. energy companies declined as much as 6 percent on the Standard & Poor’s 500 index. Losses eased after equities pulled back from the brink of a correction. Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh vowed to expand output “at any cost,” according to the ministry’s news website. The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. rose for the seventh time in eight weeks, data showed Friday. Oil’s worsening […]

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Analysts: New Price Downfall Not Sustainable

With both the U.S. and global benchmarks for oil prices hitting fresh six-year lows , analysts are scrambling to figure out where the slide will end. In Monday morning trading, Brent was trading at $43 per barrel and North America’s benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was at $39 per barrel. Analysts at Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. in Houston said in their daily note to investors that it’s hard to buy energy stocks with oil prices dropping almost every day at a drip-drip-drip pace. “With oil down again, $20 per barrel predictions will be amplified,” TPH said. “Remember the oil business doesn’t work at these prices.” At Robert W. Baird & Co. in Ohio, analysts said global risks are among the forces working to push West Texas Intermediate below $40 per barrel. The sell-off in global equities witnessed in the last three trading sessions extended overnight, punctuated by an […]

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WoodMac: ‘Decade-long’ global gasoline surplus possible for refiners

The global oil product market could experience a surplus of gasoline supply as early as 2017, according to the latest long-term oil product market forecast from Wood Mackenzie Ltd . The research and consultancy firm explains that the surplus, combined with a deficit of middle distillate and fuel oil, would put significant pressure on refiners by the end of the decade. Refiners currently benefit from low oil prices, unplanned refinery outages, and slower-than-expected ramp-up of new facilities, collectively helping keep oil product markets tight. And refiners are struggling to meet gasoline demand growth of 420,000 b/d. However, WoodMac cautions that oil demand growth will eventually slow in the long-term due to increasing efficiency and alternative fuel sources. The firm expects margins to fall by 2019 to the minimum sustainable level for some refiners and identifies key market indicators that could see gasoline cracks bottom out at low levels last […]

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Why the $20 Oil Predictions are Wrong

As the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) retests the $40 per barrel (bbl) mark, some pundits are again calling for WTI to fall to $15 or $20/bbl. The same thing happened earlier in the year when crude prices tested $40. Lots of people predicted $20, the price went to $60, and the $20 crowd went quiet for a while. Well, they are back: “There is no evidence whatsoever to suggest we have bottomed. You could have $15 or $20 oil — easily,” influential money manager David Kotok told CNNMoney. “I’m an old goat. I remember when oil was $3 a barrel,” said Kotok, whose clients include former New Jersey Governor Thomas Kean. Yes, and you could get a candy bar and soda for a nickel. But I will bet him $10,000 we don’t see WTI at $15/bbl unless he has access to a time machine. Today I want […]

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From Venezuela to Iraq to Russia, Oil Price Drops Raise Fears of Unrest

Photo Members of an Iraqi oil police force guarding a field near Basra last week. Iraqis have protested shortages of government services. Credit Essam Al-Sudani/Reuters Oil, the lifeblood of many countries that produce and sell it, appears to be rapidly turning into an ever-cheaper economic curse. A year ago, the international price per barrel of oil was about $103. By Monday, the price was about $42 , roughly 6 percent lower than on Friday. In oil -endowed Iraq , where an Islamic State insurgency and fractious sectarian politics are growing threats, a new source of instability erupted this month with violent protests over the government’s failure to provide reliable electricity and explain what has been done with all the promised petroleum money. In Russia , a leading oil producer, consumers are now paying far more for imports , largely because of their currency’s plummeting value. In Nigeria and Venezuela […]

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U.K. Says Iran Sanctions Could Start to be Lifted in Spring 2016

LONDON—Sanctions against Iran could begin to be eased as early as next spring, Britain’s foreign secretary said Monday, the latest sign of thawing ties between Tehran and the West. During a two-day visit to Iran, British Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said he expected preparatory business negotiations to take place well ahead of the formal lifting of sanctions. However, he added that the U.K. and Iran still have a fundamental disagreement on Syria. Mr. Hammond met with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani Monday. The foreign secretary had arrived in the Iranian capital a day earlier to attend the reopening of the British embassy there after nearly four years. Iran also formally reopened its embassy in London. The diplomatic moves follow a landmark nuclear agreement last month between Iran, the U.S. and five other world powers. Mr. Hammond also said Iran and the U.S. could endorse the deal by October. “We could […]

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Fourth tanker leaves Iranian floating storage since nuclear deal: Platts cFlow

Another tanker has left Iran’s floating storage fleet, the fourth to detach from one of two flotillas based in the Persian Gulf since Iran’s landmark nuclear deal July 14, Platts cFlow ship-tracking software shows. The National Iranian Tanker Company-owned Nancy had been observed anchored off Kharg Island for 135 days until August 19, when its transponder was shut off, making the ship "invisible" to vessel-tracking software. The 2.1 million-barrel vessel then reappeared briefly Sunday in the UAE’s Fujairah waiting zone — where ships often bunker prior to long journeys or conduct ship-to-ship transfers — before going invisible Monday, bound for an unknown destination, Platts cFlow data showed. Sanctions related to Iran’s nuclear program are unlikely to be lifted before the end of the year. The UN’s nuclear watchdog is scheduled to deliver its final report on Iranian compliance with the July deal by December 15. Analysts at ESAI Energy […]

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IAEA says needs more money to implement Iran nuclear deal

International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Yukiya Amano addresses a news conference after a board of governors meeting at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria, June 8, 2015. The U.N. nuclear watchdog needs more money to carry out its role under a deal to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, its chief Yukiya Amano said on Tuesday, putting the annual cost for the agency at 9.2 million euros ($10.63 million). The costs for the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) verification and monitoring activities in Iran have so far been met through extra-budgetary contributions from member states, Amano said. He called on member states to provide the IAEA with the money it needed for its work in Iran and said the 800,000 euros per month it had already received would be exhausted by the end of next month. (Reporting By Shadia Nasralla; Editing by Janet Lawrence )

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Europe Doesn’t Share U.S. Concerns on Iran Deal

PARIS — Given the sound, fury and millions of dollars swirling around the debate in Washington over the Iranian nuclear deal, the silence in Europe is striking. It’s particularly noticeable in Britain, France and Germany , which were among the seven countries that signed the deal on July 14. Here in France, which took the toughest stance during the last years of negotiation, the matter is settled, according to Camille Grand, director of the Strategic Research Foundation in Paris and an expert on nuclear nonproliferation. “In Europe, you don’t have a constituency against the deal,” he said. “In France, I can’t think of a single politician or member of the expert community who has spoken against it, including some of us who were critical during the negotiations.” Mr. Grand said the final agreement was better than he had expected. “I was surprised by the depth and the quality of […]

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Wild Cards Remain as Democrats Add Supporters on Iran Deal

Photo Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic leader, endorsed the Iran nuclear accord on Sunday. Credit Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images WASHINGTON — With Senator Harry Reid ’s undiluted endorsement Sunday of the Iran nuclear accord, followed by Senator Debbie Stabenow of Michigan on Monday, supporters of the deal are closing in on the number they need to ensure it goes into force. But the ranks of undecided Democrats are still full of quirks and wild cards, from a freshman senator from Michigan whose closest aide has a pro-Israeli government bent to lawmakers inclined toward avoiding military conflict but from states where any position in support of President Obama is toxic. More vexing still, Democratic leaders worry that Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the majority leader, could allow a resolution of disapproval of the deal to be loaded with politically charged amendments, such as making it contingent on Iran ’s recognizing the […]

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Why Water Is More Important To Iran’s Future Than Oil

As Congress prepares to vote on the Iran nuclear deal, the focus remains on what separates the Islamic republic from the United States , which, depending on your worldview is either a lot, or everything. The truth is that similarities, though perhaps few in number, do exist. Similar though contrasting religious convictions, a penchant for exceptionalism, and pistachios aside, water management stands to be a defining issue for both nations – and, truthfully, the world – as we approach mid-century. Water management in the United States is a historically dense – and increasingly dry – topic. In the early twentieth century, thousands of ill-conceived and wanton public works projects reclaimed vast swathes of the arid deserts dotting the west. The mega metropolises and industrial-scale agribusinesses that the Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation wrought are the definition of Manifest Destiny, and at the very least unsustainable. That fact […]

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Making It Up As They Go Along: The Long, Troubled History of Iraqi Kurdistan’s Presidency

Iraqi Kurdistan’s problems with their President are actually nothing new. In fact, being a President here has often had no democratic or legal foundation. There’s a long history behind the current debate. A PUK supporter holds a green flag during election campaigning in 2010. (photo: دشتي أنور) The Iraqi Kurdish President’s term expired yesterday. And the political actors in the semi-autonomous, northern region have been arguing about whether the current President, Massoud Barzani, should stay or go for more than two months now, in the run up to this expiration. Nobody has been able to come to any kind of agreement and it looks as though, despite the best efforts of many, the debate will go on. But in fact this particular debate has been going on for far longer than the current episode. The question of who should get the job of president in Iraqi Kurdistan has been […]

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New Report of ISIS Using Poison Gas in Syria

ISTANBUL — The Islamic State may have used chemical agents in an attack against civilians and rival insurgents in northern Syria late last week, according to local rebels and an international aid group. The assault on Friday in the city of Marea involved more than 50 shells and was centered on civilian areas, the Syrian American Medical Society, a humanitarian group, reported . After the attack, the group’s field hospital received more than 50 patients, 23 of whom, including some children, showed symptoms of chemical exposure, including coughing, vomiting, wheezing and severe itching. Some also had blisters associated with mustard gas, the society said in a statement. The report was corroborated by local rebel forces, who claimed that shells had been fired from Isnibil, a village east of Marea that is controlled by the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL. “At least half of the 50 mortar […]

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As Turkey Targets Militants, War Grips Kurdish Lands Once Again

Photo Officers conducted searches of young people during a security operation this month in the southeastern town of Diyarbakir. Credit Usame Ari/Associated Press DIYARBAKIR, Turkey — Across the Kurdish lands of southeast Turkey , a bitter war that had long been stilled by a truce has suddenly come roaring back, threatening to undo a hard-won economic turnaround here and adding a new battlefield to a region already consumed by chaos. Cafes in this city that usually stay open until midnight now close at dusk. Jails are filling, once again, with Kurdish activists and officials accused of supporting terrorism. Residents say they are stocking up on weapons, just in case. In the mountains, Kurdish guerrillas hastily set up vehicle checkpoints and then dissolve into the rugged terrain in a game of cat and mouse with Turkish soldiers. In the countryside, burned and mangled vehicles blight a landscape blackened by forest […]

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Shah Deniz gas pipeline flow halted by explosion in Turkey: officials

Gas flow on the Shah Deniz pipeline carrying natural gas from Azerbaijan was halted by an explosion in Turkey on Monday evening, energy sector officials said, with one saying it was thought Kurdish militants had sabotaged the pipeline. The officials told Reuters that gas flow had been halted on Aug. 3 due to maintenance and had only resumed on Aug. 23 but had not yet reached capacity before Monday’s blast. "Last night there was an explosion in the pipeline on the Turkish side and the flow stopped," one senior official said. Another official said damage assessment was set to begin on Tuesday and that it would not be clear when the gas flow would resume until after the assessment. An explosion had previously hit the pipeline on Aug. 4, after the flow had already been suspended for maintenance. That was days after an attack by Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) […]

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U.S., Turkey to launch ‘comprehensive’ anti-Islamic State operation

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu answers a question during an interview with Reuters in Ankara, Turkey, August 24, 2015. Turkey and the United States will soon launch ”comprehensive” air operations to flush Islamic State fighters from a zone in northern Syria… Turkey and the United States will soon launch "comprehensive" air operations to flush Islamic State fighters from a zone in northern Syria bordering Turkey, Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu told Reuters on Monday. Detailed talks between Washington and Ankara on the plans were completed on Sunday and regional allies including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Jordan as well as Britain and France may also take part, Cavusoglu said in an interview. "The technical talks have been concluded, yesterday, and soon we will start this operation, comprehensive operations, against Daesh (Islamic State)," he said. The United States and Turkey plan to provide air cover for what Washington judges to be moderate […]

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Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen ramp up as allies push north

AP Photo/Hani Mohammed SANAA, Yemen (AP) — The Saudi-led coalition fighting Shiite rebels in Yemen doubled its near-daily airstrikes Monday in the central province of Marib and the adjacent border area of Jawf, in order to allow allies on the ground to push north toward insurgent strongholds, authorities said. Marib’s pro-government forces also received major reinforcements, including hundreds of Saudi-trained troops, ambulances and armored personnel carriers manned by Saudi and Emirati soldiers, pro-government officials said. The forces aim to take Saada, the main northern stronghold of the Houthi rebels, they added. Yemen’s conflict pits the Iran-allied Houthis and troops loyal to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh against an array of forces including southern separatists, local and tribal militias, Sunni Islamic militants as well as troops loyal to President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi. Pro-government forces recently pushed the Houthis out of several key southern areas. Meanwhile, in Yemen’s third-largest city, […]

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Oil’s Drop Puts Spotlight on Saudi Arabia

The plunge in global oil prices has eroded an important pillar of Saudi Arabia’s strategy of pumping freely to grab global market share: Demand growth that once looked solid doesn’t look so steady anymore, mainly due to concerns about China. That has again raised a question at the heart of oil markets for more than a year: Could the world’s largest exporter of oil move to restrain production in hopes of stabilizing prices? Even before the general market rout extended into Monday, falling oil prices had sparked renewed calls from Algeria for the Organization of the Oil Exporting Countries to reverse course and discuss production cuts. On Monday, Iran, another OPEC member, said it would welcome an emergency meeting of the group, even as it restated vows to boost its own production as soon as international sanctions are lifted, possibly later this year. Those calls are aimed directly at […]

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Iraqi forces clash with ISIL in push for Anbar

Iraqi forces and loyalists launched an offensive to recapture Anbar province in July [Reuters] Dozens of Iraqi forces have reportedly been killed by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) in Iraq’s Anbar province, which has witnessed heavy fighting since Iraqi forces launched an offensive in July. Three car bombs in Al Toui, northwest of Ramadi, killed at least 18 Iraqi forces and members of the Popular Mobilisation Forces on Monday, sources told Al Jazeera. A total death toll of 46 Iraqi forces and Popular Mobilisation Forces has been reported following days of heavy clashes in several areas as Iraqi forces advanced in their offensive to recapture Anbar province. Analysts skeptical about latest Iraqi army Anbar offensive At least seven ISIL fighters have been killed, military sources said. Karim al-Nouri, a spokesman for the Popular Mobilisation Forces, an umbrella organisation of mainly Shia militiamen, said the operation […]

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Promising jobs, Basra appeases protesters at key commercial sites

Oil workers protest at the headquarters of the state-run South Oil Company (SOC) on Aug. 20, 2015. (ALI ABU IRAQ/Iraq Oil Report) Basra government officials have negotiated temporary solutions to disperse two groups of protesters who had been blocking access to Iraq’s largest oil field and its only deep-water port.For nearly a week, the protest in North Rumaila closed down a main road leading to the Rumaila oil field, which produces more than one-third of the country’s oil. On Friday at Umm Qasr port, local residents began blocking the only road leading into the facility, threatening to bring commerce there to a halt a… This content is for registered users. Please login to continue. If you are not a registered user, you may purchase a subscription or sign up for a free trial .

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Oil market loses faith in Saudi strategy: Kemp

Saudi Arabia’s strategy for rebalancing the oil market through a period of lower prices shows few signs of working so far – with rival producers claiming they will raise output even as prices slide to new lows. Saudi policymakers insist the kingdom will maintain its market share and let low prices take care of the surplus by forcing cuts from higher cost producers and stimulating fuel demand. With prices down by more than half compared with the same point in 2014, oil consumption is growing at some of the fastest rates for a decade. There are signs output growth from shale drillers and other producers outside OPEC is starting to slow, but it is not falling yet. Within OPEC, other producers, principally Iraq and Iran, are determined to continue raising their output even as prices slump. “We will be raising our oil production at any cost and we have […]

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Kuwait Says Oil Rout Heightens Need for Domestic Investments

OPEC member Kuwait said the global plunge in oil and financial markets heightens the need for the country to press ahead with investment spending and diversify revenue sources. Finance Minister Anas Al-Saleh briefed the cabinet on the market turmoil, the state-run Kuna news agency reported on Monday. Brent fell below $45 a barrel on Monday for the first time since 2009 on concerns a global supply glut may be worsening. The plunge in oil prices has sent stock markets in the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council, which includes Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, tumbling. Kuwait’s benchmark index dropped 1.6 percent on Monday to the lowest level since November 2012. The cabinet “stressed the need to implement” measures outlined by the Ministry of Finance to the parliament about diversifying sources of income, Kuna reported. Capital investment spending must also continue, it said. Kuwaiti officials are considering introducing corporate taxes for both local […]

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