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Dismal Debt Outlook for Greece Raises Pressure on European Creditors

ATHENS—A bleak debt forecast for Greece is raising pressure on Europe to grant the country softer loan terms, exacerbating tensions among its creditors as they try to seal a new Greek rescue deal within days. The new forecast, prepared by European Union officials in a document seen by The Wall Street Journal, predicts sharply higher Greek debt than Europe had previously hoped and shows just how far Greece is from escaping its marathon crisis. The assessment, which calls for “debt-mitigating measures,” increases the likelihood that its creditors, led by Germany, will have to allow Athens significantly more time to repay its huge bailout debt, European policy makers say. That conclusion is politically painful for Berlin but now looks mathematically inescapable, these officials say. The worsening outlook stood in contrast to some rare good news from Athens: Government data showed the Greek economy grew in the second quarter, defying expectations […]

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London to fast-track shale permits

Baseline studies set for Lancashire, where industry pioneers are looking to begin British shale gas campaign. Photo courtesy of the British Geological Survey. LONDON, Aug. 13 (UPI) — The British government said Thursday it plans to fast-track the permit process for shale oil and gas exploration to ensure the industry can gain traction. Shale oil and gas exploration is in its infancy in a country looking to reduce its dependency on foreign reserves. The British Geological Survey estimated shale basins in the country may hold more than 1.3 quadrillion cubic feet of natural gas, a level the government said could help an economy with natural gas imports on pace to increase from 45 percent of demand in 2011 to 76 percent by 2030. The British government said Thursday it was calling on local councils to decide on shale permits within 16 weeks of an application. "To ensure we get […]

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Oil prices edge up after U.S. stock draw, but China outlook drags

A customer prepares to fill the tank of her car at a fuel station in Sint Pieters Leeuw December 5, 2014. Oil prices edged up on Thursday, supported by lower U.S. stockpiles and record Chinese diesel exports, but worries over Asia’s biggest economy continued to weigh. A 1.7-million barrel drop in U.S. stockpiles last week helped to at least temporarily halt a price slide that has seen WTI and Brent lose over a quarter of their value since May. A relatively bullish outlook by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Wednesday also supported prices. U.S. crude CLc1 was trading at $43.50 per barrel at 0625 GMT, up 20 cents. Brent futures LCOc1 were 30 cents higher at $49.96 a barrel. "Although we are seeing support, we remain skeptical over how long this support could last. Bearish momentum is still extremely strong," Singapore-based brokerage Phillip Futures said on Thursday. The […]

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Emerging-Markets Veteran Sees Oil Falling to $30 by December

The sun sets beyond an oil pumping unit, also known as a "nodding donkey" or pumping jack, at a drilling site operated by Tatneft OAO near Almetyevsk, Russia. Robert Lloyd George, who at one time oversaw $17.7 billion in Asia emerging-markets assets, sees oil falling as much as another 30 percent this year and hitting $30 per barrel by December. Oil will stay down as last month’s deal curbing Iran’s nuclear program in return for easing sanctions could expand supplies by as much as two million barrels a day at a time demand from China is slowing, Lloyd George said in an interview in Hong Kong. West Texas Intermediate for September delivery traded at around $43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday. “It’s a different era now; you have to think differently,” Lloyd George said, calling the end of the growth cycle for metals and […]

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IEA: Long, circuitous rebalancing of oil market begins

In its August Oil Market Report the International Energy Agency’s forecast shows stronger-than-anticipated global oil demand and non-OPEC supply growth swinging into contraction next year. A rebalancing has clearly begun, IEA said. However, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016—suggesting global inventories will pile up further, the agency noted. Demand IEA forecasts global oil demand to grow 1.6 million b/d in 2015, 300,000 b/d above last month’s report and averaging 94.2 million b/d, as economic growth solidifies and consumers response to lower oil prices . “This represents the biggest growth spurt in 5 years and a dramatic uptick on a demand increase of just [700,000] b/d in 2014,” IEA said. IEA’s latest 2016 forecast also rises 400,000 b/d to 95.6 million b/d—an above-trend 1.4 million b/d gain—on higher baseline numbers and expectations of a more robust economy. The second-quarter […]

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IEA Sees Oil Glut Persisting Despite Soaring Demand

LONDON, Aug 12 (Reuters) – World oil demand is expanding at its fastest pace in five years thanks to rebounding economic growth and low prices, but global oversupply will last through 2016, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that it was steeply raising its demand growth outlook for this year and 2016, and expected non-OPEC supply growth to decline next year, with U.S. producers hardest hit. "While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 – suggesting global inventories will pile up further," the Paris-based IEA said. The view from the IEA chimes with that of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday lowered U.S. production forecasts, signalling that a 60 percent rout in benchmark prices since last summer may finally be weighing on shale output. […]

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Switzerland lifts sanctions against Iran

Neutral Switzerland will officially lift on Thursday sanctions against Iran that had been suspended since January 2014, the government announced on Wednesday, citing a deal last month between Tehran and six big powers to curb Iran’s nuclear program. "The Federal Council (government) wishes today’s steps to be seen as a sign of its support for the implementation of the nuclear agreement and its interest in deepening bilateral relations with Iran," a statement said. The deal that Iran struck with China, Russia, the United States, Germany, France and Britain aims to rein in Iran’s nuclear program in return for relief from U.N., EU and U.S. sanctions that were crippling the Islamic republic’s economy. The Swiss sanctions had banned trade in precious metals with Iranian state bodies and set requirements to report trade in Iranian petrochemical products and the transport of Iranian crude oil and petroleum products. Switzerland will also introduce […]

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Opinion: Saudi Oil Strategy: Brilliant Or Suicide?

« Leviton introduces 7.7 kW Evr-Green charging station | Main | Cal Energy Commission grants $2.4M for Class 8 fuel cell hybrid trucks at ports; $1.2M for PEV fleet and V2G software upgrade » by Dalan McEndree for Oilprice.com In the last quarter of 2014, in the face of possible oversupply, Saudi Arabia abandoned its traditional role as the global oil market’s swing producer and therefore it role as unofficial guarantor of existing ($100+ per barrel) prices. In October, Saudi sources first prepared the market with statements that the country would be comfortable with oil prices as low as $80 per barrel for “a year or two.” At the November OPEC meeting, the Saudi oil minister, Ali Al-Naimi, publicly announced Saudi Arabia would allow market forces to set prices. He argued that rapidly growing production outside OPEC made the existing status quo unviable, and that lower prices in the […]

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Iran Targets 45 Oil and Gas Projects in Plan to Boost Production

Crude Reserves Iran has selected 45 oil and gas projects to show international companies at a conference in London in December when new oil contract models will be discussed ahead of exploration auctions to double the country’s crude output. The projects, including oil and gas exploration, will be discussed along with details of a new oil contract model at the Dec. 14-16 conference, Mehdi Hosseini, chairman of Iran’s oil contracts restructuring committee, said in an interview in Tehran. Iran hopes to boost crude production to 5.7 million barrels a day, he said. The Persian Gulf nation’s output was 2.85 million barrels a day in July, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Oil producers such as BP Plc and Royal Dutch Shell Plc have expressed interest in developing Iran’s reserves, the world’s fourth-biggest, when sanctions are removed following last month’s nuclear agreement with world powers. “We will define projects in […]

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Truck bomb kills at least 60 in Baghdad’s Sadr City

Residents gather at the site of a truck bomb attack at a crowded market in Baghdad ,August 13,2015. At least 60 people were killed and 200 wounded in a blast on Thursday at a market in Baghdad’s Sadr City district, police and medical sources said, one of the largest attacks on the capital since Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi took office a year ago. There was no immediate claim of responsibility for the bombing in the Shi’ite Muslim neighborhood, but Islamic State, Sunni militants who seized swathes of northern and western Iraq last year, regularly send bombers into the capital. "A refrigerator truck packed with explosives blew up inside Jamila market at around 6 a.m. (0300 GMT)," police officer Muhsin al-Saedi said. "Many people were killed and body parts were thrown on top of nearby buildings." The market in the northeastern suburb is one of the biggest in Baghdad selling […]

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Abu Dhabi’s Taqa Cuts 22% of Jobs Amid Loss on Falling Oil Price

Abu Dhabi National Energy Co., the government-owned utility that produces crude from Canada to the U.K., has slashed 22 percent of its oil and gas jobs in the past year amid a loss due to tumbling global prices. The company known as Taqa plans to cut spending 2.5 billion dirhams ($681 million) this year after reducing capital expenditures by 1.05 billion dirhams in the first half, according to an e-mailed statement from the company on Thursday. Headcount at the Abu Dhabi headquarters is down 32 percent since July last year. Oil producers are cutting costs after Brent crude slumped 48 percent last year and is down another 13 percent this year. Taqa’s oil and gas production averaged 150,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day in the first six months, down 5 percent from a year earlier as revenue from the business slumped 48 percent. “While the current commodity price […]

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Scandals in Brazil Prompt Fears of a Return to Turmoil

Photo President Dilma Rousseff speaking in Brasília. Her approval rating has plunged since her re-election to a second term last year. Credit Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters RIO DE JANEIRO — The president is battling calls for her impeachment. The speaker of Brazil ’s lower house is grappling with accusations that he pocketed a $5 million bribe. The former treasurer of the governing Workers Party is in jail. Even former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil ’s most towering political leader in recent decades, is under the cloud of an investigation into claims of influence peddling. A sweeping anticorruption crusade in Brazil is ensnaring one major political figure after another, throwing the country into upheaval at a time when the national mood is souring and the economy is reeling from a painful downturn. Large segments of the political establishment are maneuvering against President Dilma Rousseff , a rebellion led by some […]

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CERI: Lower demand, prices may trim near-term oil sands spending

Lower crude oil prices and reduced demand resulting from a global economic downturn could reduce Canadian oil sands capital expenditures through 2017, the Canadian Energy Research Institute said. Production and capital outlays still are expected to increase well into the future, it emphasized in its latest Oil Sands Supply Update . Production from Canada’s oil sands reached 2.34 million b/d in 2014, 11% higher than 2013’s 2.08 million b/d, CERI’s 10th annual oil sands update said. “Production from oil sands includes an increasing share of Alberta’s and Canada’s crude oil production,” it noted. “In 2014, non-upgraded bitumen and [synthetic crude oil] production made up 58% of total Canadian crude production and 74% of Alberta’s total production.” CERI expects oil sands production to reach 3 million b/d by 2020, despite increased production and what it termed “market access challenges.” In addition to several in-situ projects or phases currently under way […]

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China’s Central Bank Defends Handling of Yuan Plunge

A Chinese yuan sign hangs at a currency-exchange shop in Hong Kong Tuesday. In a rare news conference on Thursday, Chinese central bank officials defended their handling of this week’s plunge in the yuan and reiterated that they see no reason for it to fall much further. The People’s Bank of China officials said the yuan would strengthen again once the market stabilizes, and said they see “no basis” for further depreciation. But investors have a different interpretation of Beijing’s move to devalue its currency by 1.9% on Tuesday and its attempt to give the market more sway in its trading level. Many expect a prolonged depreciation of the yuan and forecast bigger price swings as the central bank seeks to engineer its controlled weakening. In early trading Thursday, traders pushed the yuan down as much as 0.9% from its previous close to 6.4470 against the U.S. dollar. The […]

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Renminbi devaluation tests China’s commitment to free markets

Sign up for quick access to a wealth of global business news, including: Renminbi devaluation tests China’s commitment to free markets Newspaper + Premium online Newspaper + Premium online Premium Full FT.com subscription Premium Full FT.com subscription Standard Full news & archive Standard Full news & archive Trial Try Premium online Trial Try Premium online Price Monthly Annual $66.30 $11.77 per week $53.00 $9.25 per week $36.00 $6.45 per week $1.00 for 4 weeks $1.00 for 4 weeks FT Alphaville plus selected FT blogs yes yes yes yes Unlimited FT.com article access yes yes yes yes Unlimited mobile and tablet access yes yes yes yes Unlimited fast FT yes yes yes yes 5 year company financials archive yes yes yes yes The LEX column yes yes no yes ePaper access yes yes no yes Three exclusive weekly emails yes yes no yes Daily newspaper delivery yes no no For […]

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Devaluation Hints at China’s Rising Distress Over Economy

Photo Diners at a table lifted by a crane to a height of about 100 feet, with a view of a residential construction site in Kunming, China. Credit Wong Campion/Reuters HONG KONG — Whenever China’s economy swooned in recent downturns, its currency never buckled. It held steady, or strengthened, even as China’s neighbors or trading partners scrambled to cut the value of their own currencies to deal with the fallout. With the Chinese renminbi now taking its biggest plunge in decades, the worry is that the country’s already slowing economy is even worse off than reported and that the government is panicking. On Thursday, China allowed the renminbi to weaken significantly for a third consecutive day. The situation is shaking the aura of supremacy surrounding President Xi Jinping and the Communist Party, which has portrayed a sense of ultimate authority. But the Chinese government’s response to the country’s financial […]

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Oil vessel movement disrupted at China’s Tianjin port after blasts

Massive explosions in north China’s Tianjin port have suspended sea traffic in the nearby area but have not damaged oil facilities at the port, a source from the port who is responsible for oil loading and offloading told Platts Thursday. The blasts occurred in a warehouse storing dangerous and chemical goods in the port area of the city at midnight, local media reported. "Vessel movement along the sea route in Tianjin was suspended by the Maritime Safety Administration… Oil vessels are not allowed to enter or leave the port due to safety reasons," the source said. "But our facilities are safe and in good condition as they are a few kilometers away from the blasts, which allows normal discharging or loading of crude and oil products." The source said that vessel movement was expected to return to normal this afternoon. Article continues below… Dirty Tankerwire delivers the most important […]

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Indiana refinery outage escalates fears Cushing will top out

Concerns among oil traders are escalating that a combination of surprisingly resilient U.S. shale production and lower autumn refinery demand will cause storage tanks in Cushing, Oklahoma, to fill to the brim with surplus crude as early as October. The biggest U.S. refinery in the Midwest is suffering through an unexpected outage that may take months to resolve. The shutdown may free up enough crude to top off Cushing in just 2 months, a month earlier than the market expected as recently as last week, sparking a sell-off of oil futures spreads. "Looks like Cushing is going to be full in October now," said one oil trader. "That’s very bearish." The Sept/Oct spread, which settled at 49 cents on Friday, traded as wide as 82 cents on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Oct/Nov spread ballooned to an even wider $1.06 on Wednesday versus 75 cents on Friday. Spreads are often an […]

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U.S. gasoline spread surges most in years on refinery woes

A man gets gasoline at a BP station in St. Louis, Missouri January 14, 2015. The premium for U.S. gasoline prices over benchmark crude has surged by more than $6 in three days, its biggest such rise in more than four years, as a series of refinery disruptions toward the end of an unusually strong summer driving season squeeze supplies. U.S. RBOB gasoline futures jumped more than 4 percent on Wednesday, even as U.S. crude futures barely gained 0.5 percent, widening the so-called crack spread between the two to $31 a barrel intraday – nearly the highest level since 2013. Before this week, the spread had slipped to below $25 a barrel, near its lowest since February, as U.S. gasoline inventories remained at relatively comfortable seasonal levels and dealers anticipated a seasonal slowdown in demand. That changed in recent days, with at least three major refineries experiencing serious upsets […]

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North Sea Oil Defies Price Slump as Output Rises a Second Year

A person looks out towards an offshore gas platform operated by Statoil ASA in the North Sea. Photographer: Kristian Helgesen/Bloomberg The North Sea was thought to be the prime example of how the oil price slump hurt high-cost corners of the energy industry. Yet its crude output is defying the doomsayers. After an increase last year, the region’s production will rise again in 2015 to almost 3 million barrels a day, the first consecutive annual gains in 15 years, the International Energy Agency said Wednesday. The extra supply is entering a global market already “awash” with competing grades of oil, it said. The impact will be felt across the world because the North Sea — home of the Brent benchmark — plays an outsized role in the oil market. Even small gains in the region’s output can move prices significantly, according to consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. Production gains resulted […]

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Shell may get federal permits for Alaska

Arctic Challenger to be positioned near drilling sites for Shell, which should be getting necessary permits for exploration from the federal government soon. Photo courtesy of Shell Alaska. WASHINGTON, Aug. 12 (UPI) — Shell may soon get the permits necessary to start drilling into potential oil basins in an exploration well off the coast of Alaska, a federal regulator said. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement granted permission to Shell in July to drill two wells in the arctic waters off the Alaskan coast. BSEE said the permits excluded drilling into oil-bearing zones because Shell lacks a capping stack, a critical piece of safety equipment, positioned near drilling sites to continue beyond the exploratory phase. Shell’s early efforts off the coast of Alaska were plagued by equipment issues. Shell last month discovered a small breach in the hull of MV Fennica, chartered to carry the safety equipment to […]

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Report: U.S. incomes increase with oil exports

Consultant group finds gross domestic product, incomes, get lift if ban on U.S. crude oil exports is lifted. Photo by tcly/Shutterstock HOUSTON, Aug. 12 (UPI) — Ending the ban on the export of crude oil sourced from U.S. basins would result in a per household labor income increase of $158 per year, a report finds. Consultant firm IHS published an installment in a series of reports reviewing potential benefits of ending the 1970s ban on exports of U.S. crude oil. The report finds the economic activity that would come as a result of ending the ban would support an additional 124,000 jobs on average through 2030, with a peak 293,000 by 2018. A Senate committee on energy voted in July to repeal a 1970s-era ban on crude oil exports. Committee Chair Sen. Lisa Murkowski , R-Alaska, has moved several pieces of legislation aimed at ending a ban on U.S. […]

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France secures LNG from United States

French energy company EDF secures shipments of LNG drawn from U.S. basins. File Photo by UPI/Stephen Shaver HOUSTON, Aug. 12 (UPI) — French energy company EDF secured a deal for liquefied natural gas drawn from reserves in the United States, Cheniere Energy announced. Cheniere and EDF signed a sales agreement for up to 26 cargoes of LNG from its Sabine Pass export terminal through 2019. "Volumes will be sourced from Cheniere Marketing’s LNG supply portfolio, which includes rights under a sale and purchase agreement with Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC to purchase any LNG produced from Sabine Pass in excess of that required for other customers," Cheniere said in a statement. Cheniere has designated several dozen cargoes for sale to date, with delivery expected to begin next year. A special permit is needed to send natural gas to companies without a U.S. free trade agreement. Though France has no such […]

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Fracking Pullbacks Fail to Diminish Water Management Market Value

Despite a decline in hydraulic fracturing activity, the value of the fracking water management market remains at $1.9 billion, Lux Research reports. The estimated value of the hydraulic fracturing water management market remains at $1.9 billion for 2015 – not including water transportation and disposal opportunities – despite the sharp decline in fracking activity due to weakened global oil prices. U.S. frac activity remained strong for several months following the start of oil’s decline in July 2014, but finally started to start slow in January. The number of fracs in the United States declined from around 2,300 in October 2014 to 1,350 in February 2015, as companies refocused their efforts on their core regions and most economic resources, according to a recent study by Boston-based Lux Research. Significant pullbacks occurred in the Permian, Eagle Ford and Barnett plays in Texas, while the Marcellus play in northeastern Pennsylvania, which produces […]

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Canadian Heavy Crude Slumps To Lowest In At Least A Decade

CALGARY, Alberta, Aug 12 (Reuters) – Heavy Canadian crude slumped to its lowest level in at least a decade on Wednesday after Enbridge Inc closed two of its main pipelines in the United States because of a leak, piling fresh misery on Canadian oil companies that are close to producing at a loss. Western Canada Select heavy blend crude for September delivery last traded at $20.75 per barrel below the West Texas Intermediate benchmark, according to Shorcan Energy brokers, having settled at $19.80 per barrel below on Tuesday. Earlier in the session it hit $21.75 per barrel below WTI, the widest differential since August last year. That pushed the outright price of Canadian heavy crude to around $22.50 a barrel, a level at which some companies will struggle to cover the cost of production, blending and transportation. It was lower than the 2008 trough of $24.62, according to one […]

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World Population Will Nearly Double by 2100

The world population is 7.3 billion presently. It will surpass 11 billion by the end of the century, according to UN Population Division projections The world population is growing at an unprecedented rate. It will nearly double as much as we have today by 2100. Currently, the world population is 7.3 billion. It will be 9.7 million in 2050 and will cross 11 billion by the end of the century, according to United Nations Population Division . The global population growth will be largely driven by Africa. The continent’s current population is 1.2 billion. It is expected to triple or quadruple over the next 85 years. This is all due to consistent rapid growth in population in the region. Nigeria will likely be the biggest contributor if it continues to follow the current trend. United States will also have a significant increase in population. The country is projected to […]

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Nuclear fusion reactor in just five years?

The greatest fusion reactor in our neighborhood sends energy free for the harvesting from about 8 light-minutes away, where it safely burns and flares without any help at all from the small, blue marble that orbits it once a year. But expansion of photovoltaic technologies to capture that solar power has had a hard time competing against the big boys of power: petroleum, coal, and nuclear reactors. It’s no wonder scientists and engineers continue to pursue the dream of harnessing nuclear fusion here on Earth. A “ small, modular, efficient fusion plant ” designed by a team at MIT promises new hope for growth in the fusion industry. Equipment of similar scale and complexity has been constructed in “within about five years” the team notes. By comparison, August 4th marked the fifth anniversary of breaking ground on the world’s biggest nuclear fusion reactor project, the ITER* project. So far, […]

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Peak Oilers Shut Up Forever Please

Princeton University geologist Ken Deffeyes predicted that global oil production would peak on Thanksgiving Day, 2005 . In 2005, daily global oil production averaged 85 million barrels per day. Daily petroleum liquids production in July was 96 million barrels per day. For the past six months global oil prices have been falling steeply. Today West Texas Intermediate was selling for $43.20 per barrel. That means the price per barrel is just over $31 in inflation adjusted 2000 dollars. CNBC cite analysts who project that the price will fall further into the $30s per barrel range soon. Should the price fall to $30 dollars, that would be about $22 per barrel in 2000 dollars. That would be nearly back to what the price was 15 years ago . Read it and weep peak oilers NYMEX

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Oil prices fall further as China lets yuan slide

An attendant prepares to refuel a car at a petrol station in Rome January 4, 2012. Crude oil prices continued to fall on Wednesday as China allowed its currency to drop for a second day, triggering concerns over its economic health just as oil production hit multi-year highs. China’s yuan hit a four-year low on Wednesday, slipping further a day after authorities devalued it to support its struggling economy. Analysts noted that China’s overall currency fall was relatively low by historical standards in foreign exchange markets, but were quick to add that China’s case was different. "It is China – the largest consumer of most commodities and a large producer of many – and it’s the yuan, which rarely moves much against the U.S.-dollar and when it does, it traditionally appreciates not depreciates," Australian bank Macquarie said in a note to clients. Tuesday’s fall in the yuan against the […]

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Oil Prices Slide Further On Yuan Devaluation

HONG KONG–Oil prices slipped further Wednesday to multi-month lows in the wake of China’s surprise move to devalue its currency, the yuan. Imports of crude oil into one of the largest consuming nations will become more expensive following the devaluation, as most commodities are priced internationally in dollars. China’s decision is also being read as a ploy to revive its sputtering economy, pointing to underlying weakness in its industries. Imports of crude oil into China have so far been robust, but investors are concerned about how long the trend will last. In addition, fears about a widening oil glut increased as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reported a 0.3% rise in output month-on-month for July, said Daniel Ang, investment analyst at Phillip Futures. Looming new supplies from Iran have also put pressure on prices. Despite low prices, large producers have shown few signs of reducing output, including those […]

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IEA sees oil glut persisting in 2016 despite soaring demand

A car is filled with gasoline at a gas station pump in Carlsbad, California August 4, 2015. World oil demand is growing at its fastest pace in five years thanks to rebounding economic growth and low prices, but global oversupply is so great that it will last through 2016, the West’s energy watchdog said on Wednesday. The International Energy Agency said in a monthly report that it was steeply raising its demand growth outlook for this year and 2016, and expected non-OPEC supply growth to decline next year, with U.S. producers hardest hit. "While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 – suggesting global inventories will pile up further," the Paris-based IEA said. The view from the IEA chimes with that of the U.S. government, which on Tuesday lowered U.S. production forecasts, signaling that […]

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IEA Sees Oil Glut Enduring in 2016 After Reaching 17-Year High

The global oil glut will last through next year as surging demand and faltering supply growth fail to clear the surplus, according to the International Energy Agency. Record inventories will expand further even as consumption climbs by the most in five years in 2015 and supplies outside OPEC contract next year for the first time since 2008, the IEA predicted. Stockpiles won’t be diminished until the fourth quarter of 2016, or later if sanctions on Iranian crude are lifted following last month’s nuclear deal, the agency said. “While a rebalancing has clearly begun, the process is likely to be prolonged as a supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016 — suggesting global inventories will pile up further,” the Paris-based adviser to 29 nations said in its monthly report. Oil has slumped to a six-year low near $40 a barrel in New York as OPEC members boost output to […]

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Oil Demand Growing at Fastest Pace in Five Years, Says IEA

Demand for oil is increasing at its fastest pace in five years, boosted by an oil-price drop below $50 a barrel, a top energy watchdog said Wednesday, as it sharply upgraded its consumption-growth forecast for the commodity. But in a blow to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ strategy to defend its market share, the International Energy Agency said lower oil prices would only start to dent rival production next year. In its closely watched monthly report, the IEA said global oil demand would grow by 1.6 million barrels a day this year, an upward revision of 200,000 barrels a day from its previous forecast, and would keep rising by 1.4 million barrels a day next year. The organization—which advises industrialized nations on energy—said consumers were responding to lower oil prices while macroeconomic prospects were better than expected. “Oil’s plunge below $50 barrels a day from triple digits […]

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IEA’s August Oil Market Report

mb/d World Oil Demand *Please note that these Highlights are from the latest Oil Market Report, which is released in full to subscribers only – according to this schedule each month . Non subscribers get free access to the latest Highlights on this schedule, however the full Oil Market Report is released to the public two weeks after the report is released to subscribers. If you would like to receive the full report with accompanying charts and graphs on the day of publication please subscribe or contact the subscription manager . Crude oil prices fell sharply during July and into early August, pressured by an abundance of supply and a strong US dollar. By early August, global benchmarks had sunk around 25% below end June levels. At the time of writing, ICE Brent was trading at around $49 /bbl while NYMEX WTI was at $43.30/bbl. Global oil demand in […]

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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Highlights North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $57/barrel (b) in July, a $5/b decrease from June. Brent crude oil spot prices fell further in early August, settling at $48/b on August 7. The recent price declines reflect concerns about lower economic growth in emerging markets, expectations of higher oil exports from Iran, and continuing actual and expected growth in global inventories. EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $54/b in 2015 and $59/b in 2016, $6/b and $8/b lower than in last month’s STEO, respectively. Forecast West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices in both 2015 and 2016 average $5/b less than the Brent price. The current values of futures and options contracts for November 2015 delivery ( Market Prices and Uncertainty Report ) suggest the market expects WTI prices to range from $34/b to $64/b (at the 95% confidence interval) in November 2015. On July […]

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US EIA projects natural gas inventories to reach second-highest level on record

Increased natural gas use this summer to meet air conditioning demand has not impeded injections of gas into storage, putting gas inventories on track to reach their second-highest level on record by the end of October, the US Energy Information Administration said Tuesday in its monthly outlook. Inventories at the end of July were 23% higher than a year ago and 2% above the previous five-year average for that week at 2.912 Tcf, EIA said in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook. Inventories began the gas refill season in April about 173 Bcf below the five-year average, but record domestic gas production has allowed for strong injections that have kept inventories above the five-year average since the end of May, EIA said. Gas inventories are projected to reach 3.867 Tcf by October 31, the end of the summer refill season. That estimate for end-of-season inventories is 69 Bcf above the […]

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OPEC says cheap oil taking longer to subdue rival suppliers

OPEC on Tuesday raised its forecast of oil supplies from non-member countries in 2015, a sign that crude’s price collapse is taking longer than expected to hit U.S. shale drillers and other competing sources. In a monthly report, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecast no extra demand for its crude oil this year despite faster global growth in consumption, because of higher-than-expected production from the United States and other countries outside the group. Oil LCOc1 is trading below $50 a barrel, close to its 2015 low after an 18 percent drop in July. But OPEC has refused to cut output, seeking to recover market share by slowing higher-cost production in the United States and elsewhere that had been encouraged by OPEC’s prior policy of keeping prices near $100. Earlier this year, OPEC slashed its prediction of non-OPEC supply for 2015, expecting lower prices to prompt a […]

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OPEC Pumps at Three-Year High Despite Oil Glut

The return of crude-oil prices below $50 a barrel is testing the unity of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which on Tuesday posted near-record levels of production even as low prices ratchet up pain for its members. In its monthly oil-market report, the 12-nation cartel of some of the world’s biggest oil producers said members pumped 31.51 million barrels a day in July—its highest level since May 2012 and representing an increase of 101,000 barrels a day, compared with the previous month. That is more than 1.5 million barrels a day above the group’s stated output ceiling of 30 million barrels a day—a level OPEC endorsed at its last gathering in June . In the past, OPEC has bolstered prices by restraining output. But in the current downward price spiral, the group has kept pumping, a move aimed at protecting market share, instead of prices. The strategy […]

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New Diplomacy Seen on U.S.-Russian Efforts to End Syrian Civil War

Photo The Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, met with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov on Tuesday in Moscow. Credit Maxim Shemetov/Reuters BEIRUT, Lebanon — With President Bashar al-Assad of Syria facing battlefield setbacks, diplomats from Russia , the United States and several Middle Eastern powers are engaged in a burst of diplomatic activity, trying to head off a deeper collapse of the country that could further strengthen the militant group Islamic State. Russia, Mr. Assad’s most powerful backer, has built new ties with Saudi Arabia, a fervent opponent, and even brokered a meeting between high-ranking Saudi and Syrian intelligence officials. On Tuesday, the Saudi foreign minister, Adel al-Jubeir, met with the Russian foreign minister, Sergey V. Lavrov, in Moscow, wrangling over the fate of Mr. Assad. Unusual meetings have come in quick succession. Last week, the top Russian, American and Saudi envoys held their first three-way meeting […]

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Rebel rockets hit Damascus ahead of visit by Iranian minister

Rebel fighters ride a motorcycle near Al-Shaar bridge, which according to activists has been closed off by rebels as it is a target for snipers from the forces of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad, near Hanano barracks in Aleppo, August 1, 2015. Rebels fired dozens of rockets at central Damascus on Wednesday, a monitor and state media said, ahead of an expected visit to the Syrian capital by Iran’s foreign minister. The bombardment killed at least one person and injured more than 20 others, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a British-based monitor, said. Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif was expected to head for Damascus from Beirut later in the day, according to Iranian state media. An Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman said he would be discussing a new plan to resolve the war. Iran has been a crucial ally for President Bashar al-Assad during the four-year war. (Reporting by John […]

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To avoid losses, Syrian army retreats in key region: army source

A damaged military vehicle is seen along a road in Freikeh village after fighters from an alliance of insurgents known as the ”Army of Fatah” (Islamic Conquest) took control of the village from forces loyal to Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad in Idlib, Syria July 30,… A Syrian military source said on Tuesday the army had retreated to new defensive lines in a region of vital strategic importance to President Bashar al-Assad, seeking to avoid losses at the hands of advancing rebels. The insurgent advance into the Sahl al-Ghab plain in northwestern Syria has brought rebels including the al Qaeda-linked Nusra Front to the eastern edge of mountains that form the historical heartland of Assad’s Alawite people. The rapid advance so close to an area of such importance to Assad underscores the difficulties facing the army and the manner in which Syria is splintering: Assad said last month the army […]

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Iran reports highest crude oil production since 2013

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries finds Iranian crude oil production increased from June levels. File photo by Maryam Rahmanian/UPI VIENNA, Aug. 11 (UPI) — Iran reported crude oil production for July was the highest level it’s been in at least two years, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said. OPEC reports in its latest monthly market report Iran was among the 12 members contributing to overall gains in production in July, which saw crude oil prices shed at least $10 per barrel. "Financial concerns in Greece and China, as well as the outcome of the P5+1 talks on Iran’s nuclear program, have all contributed to the current bearish market conditions," the production group said. Iran under the terms of a November 2013 agreement is allowed some oil exports in exchange for commitments to curb some of its nuclear research activity. In mid-January, Mohsen Rezaei , secretary of the […]

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Analysts expect Congress to fall short of votes needed to defeat Iran deal

President Barack Obama appears to be nearing a veto-proof margin in Congress that would preserve the Iran nuclear deal, even with a key Democratic senator last week announcing his opposition. According to a "whip count" by the Washington Post, 29 senators have indicated that they support the Iran deal, leaving Obama five shy of the 34 needed to uphold a presumptive veto against a resolution of disapproval, assuming all senators are present for the vote. Thirteen are still undecided, the newspaper reported, with many analysts and Congress watchers surveyed by Platts citing similar figures. The experts agree that the resolution likely will pass but not have enough support to defeat a veto. "We don’t think opponents have supermajorities to override a veto, but it’s looking more like they’ll get to 60 votes [in the Senate] to send a disapproval motion to the White House," a Republican lobbyist, who asked […]

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Venezuela says pushing for OPEC, Russia action to stem oil fall

Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro speaks during a meeting with representatives of the countries from the Bolivarian Alliance for the Americas (ALBA) in Caracas, in this handout picture provided by Miraflores Palace on August 10, 2015. Cash-strapped Venezuela is pushing for an emergency OPEC meeting and joint coordination with Russia to stem a tumble in oil prices, President Nicolas Maduro said on Tuesday night. "We’re working towards a special OPEC meeting, in coming days we’ll announce …. We’re making contacts with OPEC governments," Maduro said during an hours-long televised broadcast. "We’re evaluating the possibility that a very high ranking OPEC meeting be called, and that in coordination with the Russian Federation, President Vladimir Putin, we can advance in taking a series of actions to defend the oil market in the face of this latest fall," he added. Further details were not immediately available. While members including Venezuela and Algeria are […]

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China’s yuan currency falls for a second day

China’s Central Bank has again cut the guiding rate for the national currency, the yuan, a day after Tuesday’s record 1.9% devaluation. The move sent fresh shockwaves through Asian markets, but the bank has sought to calm fears, saying it was not the start of a sustained depreciation. This is now the biggest two-day lowering of the yuan’s rate against the dollar in more than two decades. The commerce ministry said the lower rate would boost struggling exports. Chinese exports fell more than 8% in July, adding to concerns the world’s second largest economy is heading for a slowdown. But the action on the yuan sparked fears of a global and destabilising "currency war". There has been criticism from the US , where markets fell sharply overnight. One-off? On Wednesday, China’s central bank fixed the "official midpoint" for the yuan down 1.6% to 6.3306 against the dollar. The midpoint […]

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Cheaper Chinese Currency Has Global Impact

Beijing signaled with its currency devaluation that the domestic economic slowdown it has failed to reverse is no longer a problem confined within China’s borders. It is now the world’s problem, too. Chinese officials have cut interest rates four times in the past 12 months, increased the amount of money banks can lend out and pumped funds into the stock market—measures meant to boost domestic demand in the world’s second-largest economy. By devaluing the yuan, Chinese authorities are turning to a controversial growth-boosting tactic whose effects by their nature reverberate far and wide. A cheaper yuan could help boost Chinese exports . It also might complicate the Federal Reserve’s decision about when to start raising U.S. interest rates. It will pressure China’s direct trade rivals, such as South Korea and Japan, to follow suit and let their own currencies fall. It raises risks of market volatility in other emerging […]

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