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JODI Data and Giant Field Depletion

I am starting this post off with a news article because it explains why JODI has U.S. production numbers wrong for July. No, U.S. Oil Production Probably Didn’t Rise in July The Joint Organizations Data Initiative (JODI) releases monthly oil supply-and-demand data for about 80 countries, which it gathers by directly surveying the countries. It is widely cited by analysts, especially for its figures on demand, imports and exports. The latest JODI data released Sunday showed that U.S. crude-oil production rose from 9.3 million barrels a day in June to 9.5 million barrels in July. But the EIA’s latest forecast called for July production to fall to 9.2 million barrels a day in July , continuing the trend of declining U.S. production as companies cut spending in the face of low prices. For the charts below I have used JODI data for all Non-OPEC nations except those that do […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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OPEC focuses on rival mega projects, lives with shale swing output

The logo of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is pictured at its headquarters in Vienna, Austria, August 21, 2015. After almost a year of painfully low oil prices, OPEC members are beginning to believe they are winning against upstart U.S. shale producers in a short-term market share contest. Yet insiders and experts say OPEC is looking for a longer-lasting impact on other high-cost production oil field plans, many in deep oceans, with bigger time scales, even if that means a period of cheap oil prices lasting for years. Privately, OPEC’s core Gulf members say they have resigned themselves to the idea that the U.S. shale industry’s high-tech flexibility means it will respond quickly when prices start rising again, making the United States the new swing producer in world oil, the role held for so long by Saudi Arabia. "The oil surplus is slowly being drawn from […]

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Putin plans air strikes in Syria if no U.S. deal reached: Bloomberg

Russian President Vladimir Putin delivers a speech during an opening ceremony of the MAKS International Aviation and Space Salon in Zhukovsky, outside Moscow, Russia, August 25, 2015. Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing for unilateral air strikes against Islamic State in Syria if the United States rejects his proposal to join forces, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing two people familiar with the matter. Russia has increased its military presence inside Syria and its arms supplies to the Syrian army as it steps up support of longtime ally President Bashar al-Assad, drawing warnings of further destabilization from Western countries that oppose Assad. A Russian diplomatic source told Reuters on Wednesday that Moscow sees a growing chance to reach international agreement on fighting terrorism in Syria and end the crisis that has stretched into its fifth year. Bloomberg reported that Putin’s preferred course of action was for the U.S. government and […]

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Stampede Near Mecca Leaves at Least 310 Dead

Photo Emergency workers at the site of a stampede in Mina, outside the Muslim holy city of Mecca, on Thursday. Credit Saudi Civil Defense, via Reuters BEIRUT, Lebanon — At least 310 people were killed, and 450 were injured, in a stampede near Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on Thursday. The deaths occurred on the first day of Eid al-Adha, one of the holiest holidays in the Muslim calendar, and as millions of Muslims were making their pilgrimage, or hajj, to Mecca. Saudi civil defense authorities confirmed the deaths on Twitter and said that two medical centers had been opened in Mina to treat the injured. More than 4,000 emergency workers were sent to the scene, and hundreds of people were taken to four hospitals. The stampede occurred less than two weeks after a large construction crane toppled and crashed into the Grand Mosque in Mecca, killing at least 111 people […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple
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China Is Sitting on an Ocean of Diesel Fuel

Add diesel to the commodities flooding global markets from China. The nation exported a record volume of the fuel last month after already shipping unprecedented amounts of steel and aluminum overseas. The weakest economic growth since 1990 is sapping domestic demand for commodities, while refineries, mills and smelters grapple with excess capacity after years of expansion. “A lot of it has to do with slowing demand at a time when companies had plans for much a better demand environment, so capacities had been increased,” said Ivan Szpakowski, a commodities strategist at Citigroup Inc. in Hong Kong. “As demand slows, that’s led to an overcapacity in the domestic market and producers have sought to export the surplus.” Exports of Chinese raw materials are exacerbating a global glut that drove prices to the lowest since the 2008 financial crisis and prompted steel and aluminum producers around the world to protest against […]

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China Data: August gasoil exports hit new record, up 33% from July

China’s gasoil exports hit a new record high at 722,516 mt in August, and are expected to remain on an upward trend amid sluggish domestic demand and with support from sufficient exports quotas. The August exports were up 33% from 543,992 mt exported in July, and also up 77% on year from 407,801 mt exported in August 2014, according to data released Tuesday by the General Administration of Customs. Gasoil exports of 669,831 mt in June this year were the second highest level recorded, Platts reported earlier. Chinese refiners have been boosting oil product exports this year — mainly gasoil — due to slow domestic demand, said a source with Sinopec. "Demand for gasoil is really bad in the domestic market this year and the demand growth for gasoline has also slowed, which forced many refineries to export more in a bid to ease stock pressure," the source said. […]

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White House says State Dept. still considering Keystone pipeline

A depot used to store pipes for Transcanada Corp’s planned Keystone XL oil pipeline is seen in Gascoyne, North Dakota November 14, 2014. Following remarks by Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton that she disapproves of the Keystone XL pipeline project, the White House said on Wednesday that the State Department continues to consider the project. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said he was not sure if there were many people surprised by Clinton’s comments.

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U.S. crude stockpiles fall more than expected last week: EIA

Oil storage tanks are seen at sunrise with the Rocky Mountains and the Denver downtown skyline in the background October 14, 2014. U.S. crude oil stocks fell more than expected last week, while gasoline inventories increased and distillates drew down unexpectedly, data from the Energy Information Administration showed on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell 1.9 million barrels in the week to Sept. 18, the second straight weekly drawdown, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 533,000 barrels. The fall was smaller than the previous week’s 2.1-million barrel draw. U.S. crude imports fell 13,000 barrels per day last week with Gulf Coast imports dropping to second lowest weekly level since 1992. Crude stocks at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures fell 462,000 barrels, EIA said. Crude futures extended gains in choppy trade after the bigger-than-expected drop, but pared gains later. "The drawdown is giving us a bit […]

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U.S. gasoline sales surge at fastest for over a decade: Kemp

A view of the Tesoro refinery in Martinez, California, February 2, 2015. Gasoline sales to U.S. motorists rose by more than 5 percent in July compared with the same month a year before, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). Gasoline sales are rising at the fastest year-over-year rates for more than 14 years as demand surges. Continued economic expansion, rising employment and cheaper fuel are putting a record volume of traffic on U.S. roads as well as encouraging motorists to upgrade to larger and more fuel hungry vehicles. Gasoline sales were up 5.1 percent in July 2015 compared with July 2014, according to the EIA’s Prime Supplier Report published on Tuesday ( link.reuters.com/pyv65w ). Sales for the first seven months as a whole were up 4.4 percent compared with 2014 ( link.reuters.com/myv65w ). The Prime Supplier Report is based on a census of around 200 firms that […]

Posted On : Published By : Tom Whipple