• Oil prices sank to six-year lows in August as a supply overhang grew and concern deepened over the health of the global economy, especially in China. After rebounding on a slew of economic and fundamental data, prices turned volatile in September. Brent was last trading at $48.10/bbl with NYMEX WTI at $45.20/bbl.
  • Oil’s latest tumble is expected to cut non-OPEC supply in 2016 by nearly 0.5 mb/d – the biggest decline in more than two decades. Lower output in the US, Russia and North Sea is expected to drop overall non-OPEC production to 57.7 mb/d. US light tight oil, the driver of US growth, is forecast to shrink by 0.4 mb/d next year.
  • OPEC crude supply fell by 220 kb/d in August to 31.57 mb/d, led by losses in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Angola. The group’s output stood 1.2 mb/d higher than a year ago. The ‘call’ on OPEC climbs to 31.3 mb/d in 2016, up 1.6 mb/d y-o-y as lower prices dent non-OPEC supply and support above-trend demand growth.
  • Global oil demand growth is expected to climb to a five-year high of 1.7 mb/d in 2015, before moderating to a still above-trend 1.4 mb/d in 2016 thanks to lower oil prices and a strengthening macroeconomic backdrop.
  • OECD oil inventories swelled by a further 18 mb in July to a record 2 923 mb.Robust refinery throughput pushed crude stocks 9.9 mb lower, while refined products added 26.7 mb. At end-July, product stocks covered 31.2 days of forward demand, 0.6 days above end-June. Preliminary data suggest further builds in August.
  • Global refinery throughput reached a seasonal peak of 80.9 mb/d in August before autumn turnarounds cut runs through October. Refinery margins remained robust through early September, but with support shifting from gasoline to middle distillates as refiners gear up for the heating season.

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