Oil investors and analysts argued all year about when in 2015 U.S. oil production would peak. Now that they know, market participants are no less divided on where prices are headed. After months of sending mixed signals, federal data now definitively show that U.S. oil output peaked in April and has steadily fallen since. But the oil market remains unimpressed. The focus has shifted to how far, and for how long, U.S. output will fall, and how other market players will react. Iran is likely to increase its exports this year or next, and other countries have produced more crude oil than expected in the face of low prices. The market is also concerned about slowing economic growth, especially in China, the second-largest oil consumer. “At the end of the day, it’s really the balance, the total global balance” that matters, said Darwei Kung, portfolio manager of the $700 […]