Fig 1: Slide from the WEO 2015 presentation Let’s put that into a graph for the $50 scenario: Fig 2: US monthly crude production The graph shows a 4 mb/d increase in US crude oil production, mainly tight oil from Texas (Eagle Ford, Permian), North Dakota (Bakken) and Niobrara (Colorado, Wyoming) between 2011 and 2015. The other States plus the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska remained on an undulating production plateau. The red production line descends by 2.5 mb/d over 5 years to 2020, with an oil price of $50 a barrel (dashed black line). The EIA data for the above graph are from here: The latest drilling productivity report from here http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/ shows some details about peaking tight oil production. Bakken Fig 3: Bakken oil production (North Dakota) Only 60% of natural decline (-71 kb/d per month) are offset by new production (44 kb/d) leading to a net […]