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Oil falls as spotlight returns to global glut

Offshore oil platforms are seen at the Bouri Oil Field off the coast of Libya August 3, 2015. Crude oil futures fell on Wednesday as investor focus shifted back to a deep global supply glut and away from the threat of escalating violence in the Middle East, which pushed prices to two-week highs the previous day. Brent LCOc1 fell 48 cents at $45.64 a barrel at 0900 GMT, reversing brief gains earlier in the session. The benchmark had settled up $1.29 at $46.12 on Tuesday, after hitting its highest since Nov. 11 at $46.50 after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet. It had risen for five consecutive days, its longest run of positive sessions since April. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures CLc1 fell 37 cents at $42.50 a barrel. WTI finished up $1.12 on Tuesday at $42.87, having touched $43.46 during the session, also its highest since […]

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OPEC Seen Holding the Line as $40 Oil Looms Over Vienna Meeting

It’ll take more than $40 crude to make OPEC change its mind, analysts said before the group’s Dec. 4 meeting in Vienna. (Bloomberg) — It’ll take more than $40 crude to make OPEC change its mind, analysts said before the group’s Dec. 4 meeting in Vienna. In the year since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries chose to defend its market share, and let prices sink, a 44 percent plunge in crude has slashed members’ revenues by almost half a trillion dollars. Undeterred, the group will press on with its strategy to batter rival producers when ministers meet next week, according to 30 analysts and traders surveyed by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s biggest member, appears determined to see through its plan to eliminate a supply glut by squeezing out competitors like U.S. shale drillers, even as the resulting price collapse spurs dissent from Venezuela, Algeria and Iran. The kingdom’s […]

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Oil Prices Rise After Turkey Shoots Down Russian Jet Fighter

Oil prices climbed Tuesday on fears of a supply disruption after the Turkish military shot down a Russian jet fighter along the Syrian border. Gasoline surged nearly 6% because of limited supplies in the Northeast ahead of Thanksgiving. The benchmark U.S. crude-oil price soared more than 4% during intraday trading in the hours following the first reports of the fighter-plane incident, which escalated tensions between Russia and Turkey. Oil later pared gains. The rise illustrates how geopolitical risks can still rattle the oil market even as it remains mired in a supply glut that shows few signs of receding. January crude closed $1.12, or 2.7%, higher to $42.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent, the global benchmark, rose 2.9% to $46.12 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. Both contracts are at two-week highs. Despite Tuesday’s rally, oil prices are still near historic lows amid expectations for […]

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A Surprising Look at Oil Consumption

The EIA publishes oil consumption numbers for all major nations. However they have data for most nations only through 2013. They do have data for some nations through 2014. Nevertheless a lot can be gleaned from just looking at those consumption numbers. If oil consumption numbers are growing year after year, then there is a good chance that nation is growing economically. But if oil consumption numbers are continually declining year after year, then it is more than a little silly to say all is well, economically, with that nation. Or that is my opinion anyway. First, who’s oil consumption is increasing year after year, or who’s economy is booming? All charts below are consumption as total liquids in thousand barrels per day. Some charts are through 2014 while others are through 2013. Whatever the last year is on the yearly axis is the last year for that data. […]

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The Climate Talks in Paris Might Actually Work This Time

Wind turbines and electricity pylons flank a coal-fired power plant in Germany. United Nations climate talks set to begin in Paris next week promise to produce a landmark deal that has eluded diplomats for more than two decades. All of the Group of 20 nations, including the biggest developing countries — China, India and Brazil — have prepared to limit emissions into the next decade. Plunging costs for wind and solar power mean alternatives to fossil fuels are more viable. At least 130 heads of government and state will descend on the city for the opening of the two-week conference on Monday as France’s biggest diplomatic gathering since 1948 coincides with a security lockdown spurred by the deadly Nov. 13 terrorist attacks . Thousands of of police and soldiers will be deployed, and planned demonstrations by environmental activists have been canceled due to the terror threat. While the fatal […]

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ITER nuclear fusion energy test a decade away

Humanity will wait 10 years for a major trial of a different form of nuclear energy regarded as a game changer in the centuries ahead. So far man-made nuclear energy has involved fission, the release of energy with the splitting of atoms of uranium and plutonium. However in southern France, 35 nations including the US, Russia, Korea, Japan, China, European Union countries and India have been collaborating for 30 years to replicate on earth how energy is produced by the sun. The process is called nuclear fusion and it’s one of the most futuristic projects in the world. Instead of using heavy elements such as uranium, nuclear fusion involves taking common isotopes of hydrogen, the lightest element in the chemistry periodic table, and fusing them together. The reaction involves hydrogen isotopes, deuterium and tritium, fusing into heavier helium atoms, releasing enormous amounts of energy in the process. But replicating […]

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Fossil fuel sector seen risking $2.2 trillion on stranded assets

* Projects may be uneconomic with climate goals * Half of the supply in new LNG projects ‘unneeded’ Fossil fuel companies risk wasting up to $2.2 trillion in the next decade by pursuing projects that could be uneconomic in the face of international action to limit climate change, UK-based financial think-tank Carbon Tracker Initiative said Tuesday. Two-thirds of the total financial risks are currently earmarked for new and existing oil projects, the biggest fossil fuel sector at risk behind natural gas, according to the report. It said that around 20-25% of oil and gas majors’ potential investment is on projects that would not be needed in a scenario where the world agrees to limit climate change to 2 degrees. Due to the higher cost of developing oil shale and oil sands and Arctic oil, the total relates to only 11% of potential production, according to the report. Article continues […]

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Energy Companies Risk $2.2 Trillion as Climate Goals Cut Demand

Oil, natural gas and coal producers are risking $2.2 trillion by investing in projects for which there will be no demand if the world meets a United Nations target of limiting the rise in temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius, a non-profit think tank said. No new coal mines are needed, oil demand will peak around 2020 and growth in gas will disappoint industry expectations, Carbon Tracker Initiative said Wednesday in a report. The U.S. has the greatest exposure with $412 billion of projects at risk up to 2025, followed by Canada with $220 billion, China $179 billion, Russia $147 billion and Australia $103 billion, according to the think tank. “Too few energy companies recognize that they will need to reduce supply of their carbon-intensive products to avoid pushing us beyond the internationally recognized carbon budget,” James Leaton, head of research and co-author of the report, said in […]

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Introducing the New OPEC Member That Likes Lower Oil Prices

After defending the interests of oil-exporting nations for five decades, OPEC has made a surprising choice with its newest member: a country that consumes about twice as much crude as it pumps. Indonesia will rejoin the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries as its 13th nation next month, almost seven years after suspending its membership. The country says that as OPEC’s only Asian constituent it will provide a vital link to the region where demand is growing fastest. Still, saddled with an oil-import bill of about $13 billion last year, Indonesia makes an unlikely addition to the exporters’ club. “If you’re accepting net-oil importers into the organization, it speaks volumes about the marginalization of OPEC,” said Seth Kleinman, head of energy strategy at Citigroup Inc. Indonesia is “never going to cut” supply, he said. Official explanations that paint Indonesia as a conduit between producers and consumers don’t fully illuminate a […]

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Nigeria Cuts Benchmark Rate as African Peers Tighten Policy

Nigeria’s central bank reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in six years, diverging from its counterparts in most of Africa that have tightened monetary policy in the face of weakening currencies. The key rate was cut to 11 percent from a record high of 13 percent, Governor Godwin Emefiele told reporters on Tuesday in Abuja, the capital. None of the 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg predicted such a large cut, and most expected no change at all. Monetary policy in Nigeria is becoming harder to predict as the central bank turns to unconventional tools to protect its currency and boost economic growth. Emefiele has imposed foreign-exchange restrictions in Nigeria, Africa’s biggest crude producer, to keep the naira stable amid a plunge in oil revenue. “What we’ve decided to do at this meeting is that we must stimulate growth,” Emefiele told reporters after the decision. “We don’t […]

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Who is fighting the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq?

. View photo French navy personnel muster aboard the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle, deployed in the eastern Mediterraean, on November 23, 2015 (AFP Photo/Anne-Christine Poujoulat) Beirut (AFP) – A breakdown of the main forces fighting Islamic State jihadists in Iraq and Syria, after operations by warplanes from France’s Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier were launched on Monday: – Syrian and Iraqi armies – – SYRIA: The Syrian army numbered 178,000 troops in 2015, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Syria’s army has been roughly halved from its pre-war strength by deaths, defections and increased draft dodging. In its fight against rebels and jihadists, it relies on militias, which boast 150,000 to 200,000 members. – IRAQ: The army counts 177,600 men, according to the IISS. After the US invasion in 2003, the Americans dissolved the army, which was then 450,000 strong, and rebuilt a new force, […]

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The Revision of China’s Energy and Coal Consumption Data

The New York Times has recently carried two important stories on China’s coal consumption, indicating that the situation is even more serious than previously appeared to be the case. On November 3 the NYT carried a front page report that China has revised its estimates of how much coal it has been burning, and concluding that its carbon emissions have been higher than had been previously reported and assumed ( “China burns much more coal than reported, complicating climate talks” , Nov 3 2015). This was then widely taken up, with the emphasis invariably on the “new fact” that China’s coal burning is higher than previously reported. Then on November 11 the NYT carried a second story concerning a glut of new coal-fired power plant approvals, with the implication that again carbon emissions were likely to be higher in future than previously anticipated ( “Glut of coal-fired plants casts […]

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Pemex Rating Cut by Moody’s on Falling Output, Low Oil Prices

Petroleos Mexicanos lost its highest credit rating ever as Moody’s Investor Service downgraded the state oil producer one level, citing a deteriorating credit profile because of lower crude prices, high taxes and falling production. The cut leaves Mexico City-based Pemex at Baa1, the third lowest investment grade and one level below Mexico’s sovereign rating of A3. Moody’s outlook for the company is negative. The rating takes into account the Mexican government’s support for its national oil company, according to a statement announcing the downgrade. Tuesday’s downgrade follows Pemex’s worst-ever quarterly result on Oct. 28, when it announced a net loss of $10.2 billion. The company, which is headed for an 11th consecutive annual drop in production this year, said total debt surged to a record $87.3 billion. "Moody’s believes that Pemex’s credit metrics will deteriorate further in the short to medium term,” Nymia Almeida, a credit analyst at Moody’s, […]

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