• Crude oil prices spiralled lower during January, with brimming stockpiles pushing global benchmarks below $30/bbl. Markets edged higher in early February on suggestions of possible discussions to coordinate a global cut in production. ICE Brent was last trading at $33.28 /bbl, while NYMEX WTI was at $30.03/bbl.
  • Having peaked, at a five-year high of 1.6 mb/d in 2015, global oil demand growth is forecast to ease back considerably in 2016, to 1.2 mb/d, pulled down by notable slowdowns in Europe, China and the US. Early elements of the projected slowdown surfaced in 4Q15.
  • Global oil supply dropped 0.2 mb/d to 96.5 mb/d in January, as higher OPEC output only partly offset lower non-OPEC production. Non-OPEC supplies slipped 0.5 mb/d from a month earlier to stand close to levels of a year ago. For 2016 as a whole, non-OPEC output is expected to decline by 0.6 mb/d, to 57.1 mb/d.
  • OPEC crude oil output rose by 280 kb/d in January to 32.63 mb/d as a sanctions-free Iran, Saudi Arabia and Iraq all turned up the taps. Supplies from the group during January stood nearly 1.7 mb/d higher year-on-year.
  • OECD commercial stocks built counter-seasonally by 7.6 mb in December to stand at 3 012 mb at month end, 350 mb above average. Refined products covered 32.3 days of forward demand, 0.1 days above end-November. Preliminary information indicates that inventories have continued building into January.
  • Global refinery runs fell by 1.3 mb/d in January to 79.8 mb/d, as the onset of seasonal maintenance in the US and weakening refinery margins curbed runs. Global throughputs nevertheless stood more than 1.7 mb/d above a year earlier, with gains particularly strong in the US and the Middle East.