“International crude oil prices have recovered remarkably in recent weeks,” the International Energy Agency (IEA) wrote in this month’s oil market assessment, which struck a note of cautious optimism. “This should not, however, be taken as a definitive sign that the worst is necessarily over. Even so, there are signs that prices might have bottomed out,” the agency concluded (“Oil Market Report”, IEA, March 11). Goldman Sachs, perhaps the world’s most influential commodity bank, stuck to a more bearish view. In a note to clients, the bank’s commodity research team warned an early rally could prove “premature” (“New oil order: the good, the bad and the ugly”, Goldman Sachs, March 11). “Sustained low prices are necessary in our view to maintain a sufficient level of financial stress” to finish a rebalancing that has only just started, the team wrote. “An early rally in prices … would prove self-defeating,” the bank warned. And there is still a risk the United States will run out of storage space in the next few weeks, pushing prices sharply lower.