North Dakota data from the NDIC is out. Bakken Three/Forks data shown in chart above (NDIC Data) with a Red Queen Model (based on Rune Likvern’s original work) using data gathered from the NDIC by Enno Peters to develop well profiles. The model uses an estimate of the well profiles based on the NDIC well data. For Feb 2016 ND Bakken/Three Forks output fell by 3 kb/d to 1064 kb/d, Lynn Helms estimates that 63 wells were completed in February. North Dakota output fell 4 kb/d to 1118 kb/d. Clearly the model has been underestimating output since Sept 2016, I do not have a good explanation, it may be due to variation in the monthly well profiles. If we assume 63 wells per month are completed each month from March 2016 through Jan 2017 we get the following scenario, output is 840 kb/d in Jan 2017, or 160 kb/d […]