We currently see limited near term risk of a move back into the mid $30s with peak daily inventory builds in the rearview mirror amidst accelerating non-OPEC supply declines while global gasoline demand is on course to improve by 600k bpd y/y. This week’s sharp rally in reaction to Kuwaiti production strikes and jawboning about long-odds supply cut deals from Iraq and Nigeria served as good indications of the market’s increasingly thin layer of daily excess supply and general upside sensitivity. • On the upside, we see limited short term risk of a move above $50 as OPEC members + Russia appear increasingly eager to pursue market share (we saw bearish data and/or rhetoric from Russia, Iran, Iraq and Saudi Arabia this week) while North American producers could exert pressure on a move over $50 by executing hedges en masse. Signs of heightened output from Iran, Saudi Arabia, […]