At first glance, oil prices have rallied — a lot. Look closer, however, and the market is still pricing the ” lower-for-longer ” mantra, much as it did at the beginning of the year. Front-month futures for West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, have risen 21 percent this year, but the recovery looks very different if you focus on the longer term. The five-year-forward WTI contract fell 2.6 percent over the same period, reflecting the view that shale oil production could rebound as prices recover, capping any rally. “The markets may be getting ahead of themselves,” Michael Wittner, oil analyst at Societe Generale SA in New York, said in a note to clients. “We still believe sustained front-month WTI at $45 to $50 will be self limiting, as U.S. shale-producer spending and drilling would stabilize and perhaps recover.” Forward contracts offer clues — although not forecasts — about where […]