Opec has joined a chorus of energy industry voices saying that oil demand might peak within 15 years, as quicker adoption of alternative fuel cars and more aggressive climate targets look set to bring more than a century of rising consumption to a halt. The forecast is the first official recognition from the producers’ cartel that oil demand, the source of the majority of its 14 members’ revenues, may soon top out, despite predictions that the global vehicle fleet could almost double in 20 years as emerging economies develop. Though Opec is not the first to argue that oil demand might peak relatively soon, the forecast carries additional weight coming from a group that collectively pumps more than a third of world oil supplies.
Royal Dutch Shell said last week that oil consumption might stop growing within five to 15 years, highlighting the threat to an industry that has enjoyed almost uninterrupted demand growth since the first commercial well was drilled in Pennsylvania in 1859. Predictions of a peak are predicated, however, on the Paris climate agreement targets being fully implemented, as well as on the faster adoption of alternative fuel cars, increasing pressure on governments aiming to reducing oil consumption.