A great report published last year by HSBC called: Global oil supply – Will mature field declines drive the next supply crunch https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B9wSgViWVAfzUEgzMlBfR3UxNDg/view They make a good many points frequently hammered on by Chris: Based on our supply model, we estimate that 81% of world liquids production is already in decline, excluding future redevelopments. However, on a more benign definition we estimate the figure at 64%, or 59mbd vs global supply (excluding biofuels/processing gains) of 91mbd. The remainder of output is accounted for by 1) new conventional fields or large fields in ramp-up or plateau, 2) natural gas liquids (~13.5mbd globally, where production is often associated with long-plateau gas output, typically for LNG), tight oil (~5mbd) and biofuels (~2.3mbd). If we assume 5-7%pa decline rates on a benign estimate of 59mbd of global post-peak output, the supply lost between 2016 and 2040 amounts to 41-48mbd. For context, this is […]