If the world gets serious about cutting greenhouse gas emissions, the global refining industry will be forced to contract. That may seem like an obvious conclusion, but a new report from The Carbon Tracker Initiative (CTI) ran the numbers, predicting that the refining industry would contract by 25 percent if governments adhered to the 2-degree-Celsius warming target. Policies to cap emissions would weaken oil demand, which tends to depress refining margins. CTI estimated in its report that refining margins would shrink by $3.50 per barrel by 2035, forcing refiners to take less competitive refineries offline. The global refining industry would see EBITDA earnings shrink by 50 percent over that timeframe. Another staggering conclusion from the report is that if governments around the world try to stick to the 2-degree target, the total refining capacity that already exists today would be sufficient to meet global demand going forward. No new […]